Chapter 662: The Complexity of Human Nature

[Chapter 662: The Complexity of Human Nature]

As night fell on the East Coast, the ABC headquarters at 66th Street in Manhattan buzzed with activity.

The clock edged closer to eight o'clock, and high-ranking executives from Firefly Group and ABC, including Jeffrey Katzenberg, Tom Murphy, and Robert Iger, gathered in a meeting room. Alongside these industry heavyweights were key figures involved in the production of Survivor, including Eric's former assistant Allen Fisman, director Mark Burnett, and show creator Charlie Parsons.

On the large screen at the front of the room, the last few minutes of ABC World News played. The assembled team, lost in their own thoughts and showing little interest in conversation, fixated their eyes on the screen, eagerly anticipating the official debut of Survivor at eight, along with the ensuing viewership ratings.

As the seconds ticked by, Tom Murphy, seated next to Katzenberg, couldn't help but glance again at the schedule for primetime shows on various networks.

NBC's Seinfeld and FOX's The X-Files were marked with bright red stars. Seinfeld was airing its second episode of the third season tonight, and as one of the most popular sitcoms after Friends, the show premiered the previous week with an astonishing 21 million viewers. The X-Files, meanwhile, was also set to premiere its first episode simultaneously with Survivor, and it had averaged 19 million viewers in its last season. With a dedicated fanbase, the new season would likely reach at least 20 million viewers.

Even with CBS lacking a strong competitor, the fact that an entirely new reality show like Survivor faced off against two powerful network dramas had Tom Murphy, at seventy and with years of experience under his belt, still filled with concern. His finger traced the program schedule, pausing over The X-Files. He couldn't help but think about Eric -- why only bring back Friends while leaving Who Wants to Be a Millionaire and The X-Files for FOX, putting ABC at a disadvantage?

In conservative Tom Murphy's mind, the format of Survivor also carried significant risks. The show prided itself on being unscripted and real, yet many of the details were intentionally orchestrated by the production team. Lured by the prospect of a substantial $1 million prize, all sixteen contestants competed without any prior rehearsal. Aside from the generally standard physical competitions arranged by the crew, the show teemed with unabashed arguments and alliances.

This seemed to hint at the darker side of human nature.

Having spent a large part of his life in the media industry, Tom Murphy understood just how unpredictable audiences could be. The blatant display of human nature in Survivor could result in two extreme outcomes. One possibility was that the intriguing and dramatic format would fulfill viewers' voyeuristic desires. Yet, Murphy felt this wouldn't necessarily lead to sky-high ratings. The other possibility was that such overt displays could provoke strong viewer backlash, even causing boycotts of the show.

The ABC World News segment soon wrapped up, and after a brief commercial break, the music shifted to a haunting native beat as the helicopter-shot camera quickly zoomed over beautiful landscapes of Pulau Tiga in Malaysia. The volume dipped as the shot changed to a fishing boat, where a chaotic scene unfolded with teams piling supplies onto bamboo rafts, all while the show's host explained the various game rules.

After being briefly captivated by the stunning panorama of blue skies, white clouds, clear seas, and lush jungles, Katzenberg couldn't resist glancing towards the door of the meeting room.

"Ten minutes. Just ten minutes, and the staff in the office will have preliminary ratings from Nielsen," he mused.

Even though it was only 5 PM on the West Coast -- prime time hadn't yet begun there -- years of data analytics experience had taught him that Nielsen monitored ratings in real time via viewing devices installed in thousands of representative households. Even if live broadcasts didn't synchronize across time zones, the ratings data from selected households would yield reliable national estimates for shows.

...

Amid the anxieties and hopes of everyone at ABC headquarters, the atmosphere at a family estate in East Hampton, Long Island, was much warmer. Eric, Virginia, and Joanna each held a small child, lounging on a large, comfortable couch. Young Ewa Pacula had initially tried to be involved but was unceremoniously set aside by her sister and now sat on a single chair munching on a bag of chips while teasing Eric's son. Hawaii sat quietly on Virginia's lap, eyes glued to the television, while Emma dozed off, utterly worn out from the day at preschool.

As the family chatted, the picturesque scenes of Pulau Tiga soon flashed onto the TV screen.

Eagerly perched cross-legged on the couch, Ewa couldn't help but ask, "Wow, where is this? It looks amazing!"

Joanna and Virginia looked to Eric for an answer.

While Eric wasn't directly involved in the show's production, he was well-informed and replied, "This is Pulau Tiga in Malaysia. The untouched primeval forest is quite beautiful, isn't it?"

Ewa looked at Joanna with a glimmer of excitement, "Sister, how about we take Hawaii here for a trip next time...?" She giggled playfully and added, "...and take me along!"

Joanna rolled her eyes, dismissing her sister's suggestion.

Eric shook his head, "This isn't really a great tourist spot. It may look beautiful, but it's actually a snake island housing over ten deadly species. Of course, you can go to other developed islands, but that's on you. I wouldn't recommend bringing your sister or Hawaii along."

Eva pouted, "I can't afford a trip abroad, especially since you don't even give me an allowance anymore. You won't let me join the Victoria's Secret show, either. Otherwise, I could earn some money..."

Joanna shot her sister a glare, "Eva, enough!"

Immediately, Eva shrank back, not daring to continue.

Eric chuckled, explaining, "You've only had some basic modeling training. You might manage a simple fashion walk or photo shoot, but participating in a top-level event like that wouldn't work out with your current skills. You'd likely get ridiculed by the media. But if you're brave, I could sneak you in."

Eva stuck her tongue out and turned back to the TV, no longer mentioning the Victoria's Secret show.

Eric leaned over to Joanna and whispered, "Why aren't you giving Eva an allowance anymore?"

Joanna softly replied, "I've already given her everything I can. She's not a little kid anymore; she needs to be self-reliant."

Eric nodded, not pressing further. While Joanna clearly cared for her younger sister, she also had no intentions of allowing Eva to rely on her forever.

Eva, oblivious to the earlier discussion, soon became engrossed in the television show. After hearing the introductions of the sixteen contestants from diverse backgrounds, she pointed excitedly at a burly former Navy SEAL, exclaiming, "I bet this guy is going to win! He's a special forces guy -- surviving in the wild will be a piece of cake -- this seems a bit unfair to the others!"

Eric looked at Joanna and Virginia, "Do you think so?"

Joanna smiled but didn't respond.

Virginia chimed in, "Aside from those two older contestants, he's probably the most likely to take home the prize."

Eva looked puzzled.

Eric explained to Eva, "Think about what the host just explained. If even you, as an outsider, think he's likely to win, the other contestants definitely realize this too. For that $1 million prize, they're going to try to vote him out of the tribe."

Eva wasn't clueless and quickly grasped Eric's point, "So... it's not possible for someone weak to win the prize, right?"

Eric reached for a teething biscuit on the coffee table and handed it to his little one who was busy chewing his fingers. "The weakest surely won't win. As Vicky mentioned earlier, they'll eliminate the weakest member of their own team first to secure wins in physical challenges. Yet, the weaker contestants may band together to vote out those considered the strongest. Of course, it's not entirely absolute. This show not only displays the struggle between humans and nature but also tests the unpredictable side of human nature. The contestants come from various backgrounds and professions -- different races, beliefs, jobs, and personalities. No one can predict what they're thinking or how they will act, and therein lies the drama and suspense of it all."

Eagerly watching as a group of contestants debated whether to put up a tent or ignite a fire before sunset, Eva looked over at Eric with a mischievous expression and asked, "Since there's a $1 million prize, did you guys arrange anything behind the scenes... like set outcomes?"

Eric chuckled, replying, "I'm sure many regular viewers have their theories. Of course, the production team will guide contestants to some extent, but the actual winner comes from 39 days of competition. You see only the $1 million prize, but the production cost of this show reached $10 million. If the ratings meet expectations, ABC could earn millions in advertising revenue from each episode. Rigging the outcome would be a huge risk. If exposed, it could destroy all credibility, making it impossible for the show to continue. So, really, you think we need to resort to that?"

...

While Eric discussed these matters in the East Hampton estate, countless families across the East Coast -- enticed by Firefly Group's extensive pre-launch advertising -- tuned in to ABC to watch the show, captivated by Pulau Tiga's pristine beauty and the innovative concept of the program, all while engaging in various discussions.

At ABC headquarters in Manhattan, the ten minutes since the show's launch felt both prolonged and fleeting.

The contestants were now stumbling through their first night on Pulau Tiga, while mice scurried around in the dark. Katzenberg, Tom Murphy, Robert Iger, and others frequently glanced toward the door of the meeting room.

Just as Katzenberg, the most impatient of them all, was about to rise and inquire about the ratings himself, there was a knock at the door. A thirty-something woman with an elegant appearance entered, clutching a form.

"Mr. Katzenberg, Mr. Murphy, this is..."

Before she could finish, Katzenberg snatched the form from her hand, eagerly scanning the paper.

First place -- The X-Files -- 21.2 million.

Although some hopes were dashed, this result was expected.

Tom Murphy and Robert Iger leaned in closer while Allen and the other creators anxiously waited at the periphery for the executives to reveal the results, anxious to not overstep.

Katzenberg's eyes quickly moved down the sheet.

Second place, Seinfeld, with 19.9 million viewers -- slightly down from its premiere, yet still very reasonable.

With a sigh of relief, he continued to read, finding that Survivor had miraculously landed in third place with an instant rating of 17.8 million.

Without checking the subsequent rankings, Katzenberg nodded towards Murphy and Iger and the three returned to their seats.

"17.8 million," he stated as he handed the form to the others. His expression bore no joy nor disappointment. "A decent start. Now we wait for the half-hour and hour ratings, as well as the ratings for the second episode. Hopefully, it... won't disappoint."

Although most people in the room had felt a bit relieved upon hearing that initial figure, their unease crept back in.

For other new shows, 17.8 million would have been a stellar rating. However, Firefly Group had heavily promoted Survivor just as it did with the upcoming Friends premiere. The marketing expenditure and production costs had been nearly identical.

For a show that might typically enjoy sky-high ratings, this figure truly reflected the fruits of Firefly's early marketing.

To gauge Survivor's market response just like any other new show, the strategy had been to air two episodes back-to-back.

The initial ratings were solid, but the true test of this reality show's potency would lie within the programming changes over the next two hours.

While Katzenberg was visibly dissatisfied, others like director Mark Burnett and writer Charlie Parsons felt a flicker of joy upon seeing the figures.

For the current four major networks, a program exceeding ten million viewers was enough to ensure it wouldn't be cut after the first season. The opening figure of 17.8 million significantly surpassed Burnett and Parsons' expectations. As long as the ratings trends didn't drop starkly, securing a renewal from ABC shouldn't be problematic.

Meanwhile, Allen, newly appointed vice president of primetime programming at ABC and producer of Survivor, felt only a brief moment of relief. His mood quickly swayed between hope and anxiety.

His pressure was more significant than others'. If Survivor failed, it wouldn't devastate Katzenberg and others, but it could be detrimental to Allen's career. Unlike others, he was just parachuted in. Though once serving as Eric's assistant, that glory couldn't fully shield him from the possible animosity or quiet resistance from ABC's long-timers.

Noticing Katzenberg's and the others' expressions, Allen read the room clearly -- they were comparing Survivor's performance to Eric's former creation, Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, which had averaged an astounding 29 million viewers in its first season, a remarkable figure. Even five years later, under FOX's solid management, that show still maintained ratings around 20 million.

Survivor's opening numbers paled in comparison to Millionaire's stunning debut.

However, Allen had no desire to compete with a show that Eric had personally crafted. He just hoped Survivor's ratings wouldn't plunge. Even maintaining around 18 million would solidify his standing in his role. A sharp downturn in viewership, regardless of Eric's support, could easily cost him his position as vice president of primetime programming at ABC.

In the anxious waiting, the TV screen featured contestants plotting and scheming. While this might appear fresh to average viewers, those in the ABC headquarters hardly focused on that storyline.

If possible, many secretly wished the television would just be turned off.

Finally, as the contestants began their first physical challenge, there was another knock on the meeting room door.

...

[A/N: In reality, Who Wants to Be a Millionaire's first season's viewership was indeed incredible at 29 million, a true marvel. Additionally, by the end of Seinfeld's run, its final episode achieved a staggering 76 million viewers, a remarkable feat. However, this sitcom's global recognition wasn't as high as Friends, and its average ratings likely fell short of Friends as well. This explains why I have meticulously checked many of the statistics shared in this chapter; while I may slightly adjust them according to the storyline, I assure you they're not random figures.]

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