Chapter 297: Luck is Essential

Universal Pictures was ambitious, hoping to capitalize on the success of the "Mummy" series with a massive top-tier production that would bring its once-glorious monsters back into the public eye, generating substantial profits and returns for the studio just like "The Mummy" had done.

Moreover, Matthew heard from Sean Daniel that there had been internal discussions at Universal about the possibility of bringing more monsters back to the screen and packing them into one film for a crossover if both "The Mummy" and "Van Helsing" were successful.

However, Universal was very cautious about this proposal, especially considering the dismal failure of "The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen."

But these discussions were subsequently paused and remained only on paper within Universal's plans.

Unlike "Dawn of the Dead," "Van Helsing" had its Rotten Tomatoes score embargo lifted only on the day of its official release. By the second day, the film's Rotten Tomatoes index had completely tanked, with a freshness rating of 24% and an average score of 4.3, which was shockingly low.

While there have been films with poor Rotten Tomatoes scores yet high box office returns, there's a clear difference between summer audiences and professional film critics, from whom the freshness ratings are collected.

Moreover, behind the freshness rating, there's an audience score, and most blockbuster films usually have scores between 85% and 95%.

"Van Helsing" scored only 57%.

At the same time, the IMDb audience score was released, showing a middling average rating of 6.1.

"The biggest failure of 'Van Helsing' is that it resurrected these classic monsters but failed to make them terrifying. The visual effects, while stunning, couldn't compensate for the weak story and the unclear backgrounds of the three main monsters," was a common sentiment among critics.

Of course, for a high-budget, heavily marketed film like this, audience and professional reviews influence the film's long-term box office performance, not just the opening weekend.

While the quality of the film certainly affects the opening weekend's box office, factors like the scale of production, marketing, topicality, and star power usually have a larger impact.

Especially now that North American online and offline advance ticket sales are commonplace, fans can book tickets weeks or even months in advance if they are interested in a film. Factors like marketing and star appeal often influence these bookings.

If we're talking about the opening weekend alone, although "Van Helsing" didn't meet Universal's expectations of over $60 million, an opening weekend of $51.7 million was still above average.

However, predictions by various forecasting agencies subsequently suggested that "Van Helsing" would experience a sharp decline.

Data from Cinema Score, a leading authority on the North American film market, was particularly unfavorable for "Van Helsing," giving it an audience score of "B-," indicating poor word of mouth.

Additionally, Cinema Score projected that "Van Helsing's" total domestic box office would land between $120 million and $130 million.

Known for its accuracy, Cinema Score's predictions are taken very seriously, with a historical accuracy rate of over 85% for medium to large scale films.

Although studios also hire research firms for market surveys and use the data to adjust marketing strategies, Cinema Score's neutral and precise forecasts are highly regarded.

If "Van Helsing's" domestic box office truly ends as Cinema Score predicted, Universal would be deeply disappointed.

By the weekdays, "Van Helsing's" box office began to plummet, with a 70% drop from Sunday to Monday—a fall much steeper than that experienced by "Dawn of the Dead," which, despite being a niche zombie film rated R, did not see such a large decrease. And "Van Helsing" was rated PG-13.

Throughout the subsequent weekdays, "Van Helsing" continued to drop by about 15% daily.

These trends closely matched Cinema Score's predictions.

Standing at the window of her office, Helen Herman gazed out at the streets of Burbank through the glass, her glasses resting on the windowsill. Her face was thoughtful.

She even felt somewhat relieved that she and Matthew hadn't landed the lead roles in this movie; otherwise...

From the current situation, it was clear that even the combined domestic and international box office of "Van Helsing" would not cover the high production costs and the additional $70 million spent on marketing and distribution.

If this were true, both lead actors, Orlando Bloom and Kate Beckinsale, might face a significant downturn in their careers. While Orlando might recover, thanks to his contract with Ridley Scott for "Kingdom of Heaven" and his foundation with the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy, Kate Beckinsale likely wouldn't find lead roles in top-tier productions again after the underwhelming performances of "Pearl Harbor" and now "Van Helsing."

Director Stephen Sommers would also likely face years of obscurity before possibly returning to mainstream commercial

 productions.

What if Matthew had been part of this film? Helen didn't need to ponder long to know it would have been a huge setback. At the time she fought for the role, "Pirates of the Caribbean" hadn't yet started casting, and there were scheduling conflicts with the two movies. If Matthew had chosen "Van Helsing," he might have lost "Pirates of the Caribbean"...

What would have happened then? Without the success of "Pirates of the Caribbean" and facing the fallout from "Van Helsing," Matthew's career might have been ruined, along with the resources and effort she had invested in him over the years.

Fortunately, they were lucky not to fall into the pit of "Van Helsing." If they had, it might have been impossible to climb out.

Crossing her arms, Helen Herman reflected on their good fortune. Luck, after all, is indispensable for Hollywood stars.

Every year, seemingly promising blockbuster projects turn into colossal failures. Despite her confidence, Helen knew all too well how difficult it is to predict the success of a major production. Beyond insight, capability, market analysis, and keen intuition, good luck is essential.

Consider the "Van Helsing" project: a production budget of $160 million, a marketing spend of over $70 million, and a director who had previously helmed the hugely successful "Mummy" movies. The recent success of the "Mummy" and "Lord of the Rings" series, even "The Scorpion King," had demonstrated a high market acceptance for films with magical elements.

From any angle, it was a sound project, which is why she had fiercely competed for it.

Yet, a reliable project failed to meet expectations, with over 95% certainty of becoming a career Waterloo for many involved...

Helen Herman shook her head to clear the sense of relief and knew that both she and Matthew would need more such luck for further advancements.

But she was determined to minimize the influence of luck as much as possible.

In some respects, the new project, "Mr. & Mrs. Smith," which Peak Entertainment had tentatively named, bore similarities to "Van Helsing" in terms of investment and creative team reliability.

Perhaps the disappointing performance of "Van Helsing" made Helen Herman think too much.

But she quickly recovered, aware that history had shown her that projects that seemed reliable had a much higher chance of success than those that appeared dubious from the start.

Someone knocked on her office door, which then opened.

Helen Herman didn't need to turn around to know it was Matthew entering. She picked up her vintage black-rimmed glasses and put them on.

"Hey, Helen!" Matthew said as he saw Helen standing by the window. "What are you thinking about?"

"Nothing much," Helen turned to face him, giving him a look. "Just thinking you're quite lucky."

That was something Matthew neither could nor wanted to explain, simply stating, "I've always been lucky, you know that."

He poured himself a glass of water before sitting on the single sofa in the office.

Helen sat on another sofa next to him and remarked, "It's not just simple luck, right? I remember you weren't very enthusiastic about competing for 'Van Helsing.'"

Anticipating such a conversation, Matthew had his response ready, "You've never worked closely with Stephen Sommers. I've collaborated with him on two projects and know him quite well. He's a capable director with lots of ideas, maybe even too many. I've always felt that letting him have free rein without a strong producer to guide him might not be a good thing."

Such an explanation didn't need to be very convincing. Just giving a reasonable and justifiable reason was enough for Helen not to question further.

After all, avoiding a major flop was indeed fortunate.

Helen had merely asked casually. Upon hearing Matthew's response, she didn't press further but shifted the topic, "Universal just emailed me this morning. 'Dawn of the Dead' was pulled from all theaters across the U.S. at midnight yesterday."

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