3. Superstition

"The Zodiac is not science, Shirley. It's superstition, like writings on a wall, broken mirrors and walking under ladders causes seven years of bad luck. If the Zodiac was science, then every twin would have exactly the same character and the same life as her twin sister or brother. I know two twin brothers, Hans and Franz, and they are as different as two middle-class cars from different brands."

"When you don't believe in things because you don't understand them, then you'll suffer. That's not superstition; it's a lack of knowledge. Do you believe the sun will come up tomorrow or do you know the sun will come up tomorrow?"

"I know the sun will come up tomorrow. I know how the solar system works; it's physics, predictable, repeating itself as long as no external factor disturbs the balance. There is a chance the sun will explode tonight, but that chance is rather small as it hasn't happened during the last 5 billion years, and there is a chance a meteor will hit the Earth before sunrise, but that chance isn't much bigger. So, yes, I can predict with over 99,99% of certainty that the sun will come up tomorrow. That's not belief; it's knowledge like only science can provide."

"Lovely. You admit that tomorrow's sunrise isn't 100% certain. Your science is nothing but belief in statistics; you follow the Religion of the Big Numbers. How big is the chance that the economy will improve when governments lower the interest rates? Economy is science too. How big is the chance that a certain treatment will cure a patient? Modern healthcare is science too. How big is the chance that two white panthers will get a black variety between their offspring? Biology is science too. What you call «science» is nothing more than the product of statistics and experiments. Astrology is exactly the same, the product of statistics and experiments."

Shirley has a surprising way of looking at the world around her. All my life, I firmly believed I knew how things worked, but she drops a few words, and all my foundations turn into quicksand.

I have no idea about biology or healthcare, but I do have a degree in Economy. When governments lower the interest rate, they hope (hope is not scientific) that consumers will get less stimulation to save money and more to spend it. Consumption = Production, which results in more work and a growing economy. But when interest rates rise, consumers will save more and consume less. Saving = Investment. Banks will not sit on those savings. They will grand loans, to companies that invest in better quality and higher production, which results in… more work and a growing economy… Rostov! I took it for granted that the economy behaves as governments predict, but Shirley is right here: it's belief, religion, and not scientific at all.

"You're right again, Shirley. The true method of knowledge is experiment. I'm interested. I'm listening. Convince me."

Shirley smiles away my last doubts, grabs my arm and, while we walk on, she explains: "When I tell someone «you're Taurus, so you're reliable, hard-working and honest», she'll feel proud of these three good characteristics. She'll even tell others: «Hey, I'm Taurus, so you can rely on me, I'm the best employee you can get, and I'll never lie to you either». She actually becomes more reliable, hard-working and honest, because she believes in horself, and in the Higher Powers of the Zodiac, which blessed hor with honesty, productivity and reliability. That's 100% science. It's called «a self-fulfilling prophecy». It works perfectly to change other people and make them feel better about themselves. What was your line some time ago? «You can't change other people; all you can change is yourself»? Well, with astrology, you can change other people and make the world a better place. So don't be sceptical like a Cancer, my dear Watson, but try to learn from it."

How does Shirley know my secret thoughts during my mission in Spain with Chelsea? This woman… She seems to see things she can't possibly know. But I don't let her look behind my professional poker face. I'm a spy. It's my job to get information, not to give it away: "You are correct about every single thing except one: I'm not a Cancer."

"What else would you be? You are steadfast, like a Taurus, an Aries or a Leo, but you're definitely not a Leo, and you're sceptical like a Scorpio, but you're not a Scorpio either. Are you? Scorpios make the best spies: they love mysteries, but… they are revengeful and sometimes even cruel. You're too gentle and forgiving to be a Scorpio."

"You're just guessing. You can't tell how people are by knowing their birth sign, and you can't know the birth sign of people when you think you know how they are. Remember Hans and Franz…"

"One thing is your character. Another thing is what you learn and where you come from, my dear Watson. Your twin friends started from the same egg, but since the day they were born, each went his own way. Studies show that the first-born of twins usually is a bit more protective and responsible, while the second-born is more intuitive and creative. Is that coincidence? Or is it science? Star signs also work like that. You're not materialistic because you're a Taurus, but scientists discovered that people born under the sign of Taurus are more materialistic than others. When 80% of the women are better with language and 80% of the men are better with mathematics, it doesn't prove I'm better with language than you; it's just statistics, speaking in my favour."

"I speak seven languages and I also have a degree in Economy. Does that make me a hybrid? I believe every person is a unique individual, although most of us are much more the same than we think: we're all social and intelligent, and everyone wants to be happy."

"It's science. I'll prove it to you. If you weren't a spy, what career would you have chosen?"

"It wouldn't be much of a choice: my parents are butchers. I would work in their shop, cutting up meat and selling it. I'd probably enjoy it, too. Except for being a spy, I can't imagine a better life than my parents."

"A butcher and a spy… That points towards Scorpio more than anything. But let's not draw conclusions too easily. You want a scientific approach, and you'll get one.

» There are four elements: Earth, Water, Fire and Air. Earth signs are materialistic, but a spy has to give up material wealth. Air signs have problems, working with an organization where they need to follow orders; they prefer a regular life with healthy daily routines, which would fit a butcher but not a spy. Fire signs are aggressive and want to shine, but you're a modest pacifist. Water signs are mysterious, intuitive and rarely do anything openly. Spies are like that. Water signs are also emotional. Their feelings have a larger influence on their decisions than their ratio. We've just seen an example of that, when you decided to help me, even without any rational argument. The facts tell me you're a water sign.

» There are three water signs: Pisces, Scorpio and Cancer. Pisces like music and being alone, but also are they fearful, overly trusting, and tend to be more victims than saviours. Scorpios like the truth, facts and being right, they are brave and like secretiveness, but they are stubborn, jealous and violent, and also are they more often leaders than servants. Any Scorpio would make a perfect spy, but you're far from a perfect spy because you told me your secret already within an hour of knowing me. Cancer is loyal, persuasive and suspicious, all perfect spy qualities. Cancer likes to help his loved ones, and she enjoys a good meal with friends, just like you. Also, are they moody, insecure and sensitive, which doesn't help if you want to become a decent spy, but it does suit you as the person I know. My only doubt here is that Cancer likes to be at home with his family, which doesn't fit a spy-job at all, but apart from that, my first guess is: you're a Cancer."

I know how she does this: she looks for signs of recognition and builds her theory on that. But «Poker Face» is my middle name. I don't say anything, I don't move a muscle, I just walk on and let Shirley do the talking.

"We're not done yet. This is science. We have to investigate both sides. We've looked at the signs to find you, but we can also look at you and find out which sign fits your character. Do you have a pen and paper to make notes? We'll need to summarise the statistics of each sign of the Zodiac, based on what I know about you."

I tell my spiPhone: "Lovely Sweet Dear. Start statistics app. Record list of entities…"

Shirley knows the signs of the Zodiac by heart: "Aries… Taurus… Gemini… Cancer… Leo… Virgo… Libra… Scorpio… Sagittarius… Capricorn… Aquarius… Pisces…"

"End list. Start recording."

"Let's see what I know about you. You saved me from a burning house. That's brave. That's one point for Capricorn, Leo, Sagittarius and Scorpio, and two points for Aries; bravery is their strongest quality.

» You speak seven languages. That's two points for Libra, the most social and communicative sign, and one point for Gemini, Cancer and Aquarius.

» You're also an economist; one point for Capricorn, Virgo and Sagittarius: they are good with money.

» You're a spy. That means adventurous like Aries and Sagittarius, but you can't be reckless like Aries and you don't have that native desire to shine like Leo or Aries. You're modest and introvert like Virgo, Capricorn, Cancer and Pisces.

» Spies adapt to any situation, one point for Gemini, but one can't count on a Gemini when things get serious. Their weakest point is their indecision; you acted immediately when I was in danger: two points less for Gemini and one less for Libra.

» You're also a team player, one point for Cancer, Libra, Pisces, Sagittarius and Aquarius, but you're not a leader, one minus for Leo, Scorpio or Sagittarius.

» Were you a Diplomat-spy, you would be Libra, the most social sign of all, but you're not self-important like a Libra or a Leo, you're not unreliable like a Libra, a Scorpio or a Gemini, and you decide quickly, which is unlike Libra, Capricorn and Taurus."

Would #3, The Diplomat, be a Libra? While Shirley keeps talking, I send a quick message to #2, The Nerd: «What's the birthday of #3, The Diplomat?». The answer comes immediately, like The Nerd knows every birthday by heart: «The 4th of October, the international day of all the animals. Why? Do you want to buy him a birthday present? Don't forget me. My birthday is next week, the 26th of January.»

The Diplomat is a Libra, exactly like Shirley just said… Coincidence, of course, but still…

"You're honest and reliable, one point for Aquarius, Taurus, Virgo, Leo, Aries, Cancer and Sagittarius.

» You're altruistic like Aquarius and Cancer. You like to help people. Two points for Pisces and one for Cancer, Leo, Aquarius and Sagittarius. Like Aquarius and Aries, you're independent. You're interested in technique, which indicates Aquarius too, but you're not eccentric like Aquarius or Virgo."

Eccentric, altruistic, helpful, technique, independent… That Aquarius is The Nerd as I know him, and he just told me his birthday is next week…

"What's the birth date of an Aquarius?", I interrupt.

"Between the 21st of January and the 20th of February."

The Nerd is Aquarius… This coincidence is becoming more and more coincidental.

Shirley rattles on: "You're not nervous, like Leo, Virgo or Gemini. You're not restless, like Sagittarius or Aries, and you're not slow, like Taurus or Pisces. One point less for all of them. You're patient: two points for Taurus and one for Capricorn and Pisces.

» You're also sceptical, not easily convinced. One point for Virgo, Cancer and Scorpio. This indicates the intelligence we find with Virgo, Scorpio, Capricorn and Aquarius, plus the intuition that dominates Cancer and Aquarius. You're emphatic, like Cancer, Pisces, Libra and Leo. And you dress… sorry to say this… like someone who doesn't have a mirror. You are definitely not a Leo or a Sagittarius. You're not warm, like a Leo or a Taurus, but more distant and cautious, like Cancer, Capricorn or Scorpio. And finally, you're not a loner, like Aquarius, Virgo, Capricorn and Sagittarius, but a social person, like Gemini, Libra, Aries, Leo and Cancer. What do you think? Do I know an awful lot about you, two hours after we first met?"

"Yes, Shirley."

"There's one final point: spies can't spend much time with their family. That's two points less for Cancer, who loves being at home and is known for their strong family ties. How are we doing so far?"

"Lovely sweet dear. Stop recording. Report analysis, aloud."

"Cancer: 9 points. Aquarius: 7 points. Pisces: 5 points. Capricorn: 4 points. Aries: 3 points. Virgo and Sagittarius and Scorpio: 2 points. Libra: 1 point. Taurus: 0 points. Gemini and Leo: minus 1 point."

Shirley was wrong at one thing: she lowered the score of Cancer by two points because she assumes a spy like me doesn't miss his family and friends every day. I do miss them, but I accept the price I have to pay for helping others and saving the world…

Before I can say something, Shirley raises her finger: "We're not done yet. I promised you your date of birth. Therefore, we go to China. The Chinese also have twelve signs, but each of them stands for a year. If you're born in, for example, 1995, it means you're a Pig, a sign full of emotions and intuitions, a calm nature, intelligent, altruistic and empathetic, caring, unique, self-sacrificing, sensible and prudent, but also insecure, pedantic, naive and pessimistic. Well, that sounds a lot like the emotional Cancer we just found. And for the Chinese elements of Metal, Water, Wood, Fire and Earth, I would pick: uncomplicated, never give up, flexible and easy-going, honest and lovely: Wood. Combine those three, and we find someone who's born between 21 June and 22 July 1995. The June Cancer is more helpful, a better communicator and also more rational, compared to the later-born. The July Cancer has a sharp tongue and isn't as tactful as you were with der Kommissar. So, my dear Watson, my scientific approach tells me that your birth date is the 25th or the 26th of June, 1995. Am I wrong?"

Yes, she's wrong. I was born on the 24th of June, 1995. She's wrong one complete day!

"I'm not a Cancer, Shirley. Look. This is my passport. It says my name is Timo Lahm. I'm born in Trier, on the 10th of August 1991."

"I'm talking about facts here, my dear Watson. And looking at the facts, I can only draw one conclusion: that passport is false. You're definitely not a Leo."