War in Sight (October-December, 1882)

The European powder keg]

On October 5, the European world seemed to be on the brink of collapse into war due to the German intervention in the Netherlands to place the regency council under William V (a man in poor health and mental problems).

Meanwhile, Kaiser Franz Joseph of attended Trieste to 'honor' the city as "urbs fidelissima" (which can be translated to most faithful city) because the city did not rebel against the Austrians in 1848 and also to try to please the Italians, sadly in 1882 Trieste was a nest of nationalist Italians who pursued irredentist objectives.

On this visit the Italian nationalist Guglielmo Oberdan together with the local pharmacist Donato Ragosa used two bombs to successfully assassinate Emperor Franz Joseph in the middle of an anti-Austrian demonstration at the Urbs Fidelissima (for irony ...).

A murder that shakes the world because it triggers new possible tensions between Italy and Austria-Hungary, now led by the son of the late Kaiser, Rudolf Franz Karl Joseph, crown prince of Austria, Hungary, Bohemia and Croatia, who has taken the title as Kaiser Rudolf I of Austria-Hungary.

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* Austro-Hungarian perspective.

"I suggest extreme moderation with regard to the Italians, pressing too hard will lead us to explode a military conflict with the alliance of Rome and Berlin. We are not prepared for that." The Chief of the General Staff, Friedrich Graf von Beck-Rzikowsky presents before the Kaiser.

"... We will send some diplomatic comments to let Rome know that all is well, let's talk to the other powers. We have to do something to stop the chain of incidents in Europe." Rudolf I exclaims, but then gulps.

Rudolf I did not like having to be at a disadvantage with Germany, in fact he preferred France over Germany, but the figure of Friedrich Graf von Beck-Rzikowsky was a fairly solid supporter in foreign policy, with a calm and willing approach. diplomacy to avoid a European war.

In the government of Rudolf I there would be two great influences in matters of domestic policy, foreign policy and economics, the aforementioned Beck-Rzikowsky and the former Kaiser educator and economist Carl Menger.

* Russian perspective.

"We will immediately support the idea of the Kaiser of Austria-Hungary." Tsar Alexander III proclaimed his minister Nikolai de Girs.

"I will inform the Austrian ambassador immediately." Girs exclaims. "Do we cooperate with the Austrians for the participation of other powers?"

"Absolutely." Tsar Alexander III responds.

With Russia and Austria-Hungary obviously France and the United Kingdom joined, practically pressured from four sides, Chancellor Otto von Bismarck in 'representation' of Kaiser Wilhelm I of Germany, would discuss the Dutch issue at a diplomatic summit with other great powers.

This would take place in Vienna, shortly after the burial of Kaiser Franz Joseph.

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[Summit in Vienna]

* National opinions.

The truth is that the side 'opposed to Germany' did not have a unified plan as such, although Tsar Alexander III and Kaiser Rudolf I wanted to maintain peace in Europe, it was not clear what should happen to the Netherlands and its internal affairs.

On the other hand Napoleon IV wanted Germany out of the Netherlands without conditions, while Edward VII was willing to at least a certain degree of negotiation, but above all to avoid a war and prevent Germany from annexing the Netherlands or its colonies. .

Bismarck and Umberto I's Kingdom of Italy could act as a much more united bloc, the problem was that they lacked the numbers and therefore the weight to press for all their diplomatic-political-economic objectives.

It was clear that William V actually had, to some extent, certain psychological problems, but the knowledge of the time regarding these aspects was limited.

There was also the factor of the debts left by William IV and the 'republican danger' as defined by Bismarck when trying to show that the Germans were simply trying to put the order in the Netherlands.

There was also the issue of Luxembourg, a grand duchy within the German Empire that would enter a personal union (again) with the Netherlands if William V was accepted.

Edward VII proposed that a lesser relative of the House of Orange-Nassau take the throne of Luxembourg so that William V take that of the Netherlands, but that was against the law of succession of the Netherlands and its constitution. Neither group could agree on how much to change the constitution, or if not at all.

It was decided that the House of Orange-Nassau would remain on the throne with William V.

Regarding the customs union, although Paris, London and Saint Petersburg wanted their money back, they feared that this would lead to the political integration of the Netherlands within the German Empire.

Edward VII, Alexander III and Rudolf I came to a first plan:

*William V is King of the Netherlands and Grand Duke of Luxembourg.

* A Regency Council would be allowed.

* A customs union was allowed but the number of German troops in the country was limited to a single infantry regiment, German fortresses, cavalry and artillery were prohibited.

** Buying by Germans on 'resources and strategic positions for the Dutch state' would be limited.

* Germany could not annex the Dutch colonies.

* Germany could not go after the surviving liberal-republicans of the Netherlands 'after an armistice or peace agreement'.

The Regency Council was seen as necessary, and at least Edward VII and Rudolf I thought it would allow the Dutch to still rule their affairs.

The other points were intended to limit the German presence, interests and economic potential in the Netherlands and nearby.

The 'forgiveness' for survivors was to form an opposition against the Germans in the Netherlands.

A clause was also raised about limitations for German navies in Dutch colonies ports, but Bismarck denied without a security agreement for the commercial routes of the German colonies, something that the English did not want to give up.

Bismarck for his part also asked that a greater German military presence be allowed in exchange for:

1-The demilitarization of the Dutch side of the Belgian-Dutch border.

2-The demolition of the fortresses of Luxembourg.

The Netherlands was a very sweet cake to pass up.

Edward VII was willing to accept that, and Napoleon IV was interested in destroying strategic positions in Luxembourg, but he would mean accepting a German presence in the Netherlands (something that would simply strengthen Germany).

Bismarck also requested that the British Royal Navy not take action against the Dutch East Indies despite the council of regency, as they were vital resources to pay the debts of William IV.

The English did not know what to respond, on the one hand they wanted to limit the presence of foreign nations to protect Singapore and seize the Dutch East Indies would be a strategy to limit Germany (or Russia).

Tsar Alexander III proposed a multiple non-aggression pact in the Pacific for a period of 3 to 10 years, the same in Europe but the English, French and Germans were not sure of such a concession.

Then there was a treaty similar to this:

* William V is King of the Netherlands and Grand Duke of Luxembourg, in a personal union between a sovereign state (under a council of regency) and a federal state of Germany (Luxembourg, under local administration).

**The Regency Council would involve a special delegate from the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, but the rest of the members had to be Dutch citizens.

* A customs union between Germany and the Netherlands was allowed. At least until the debts of William IV were paid, when this requirement was met, a lawsuit would take place to find out if the Dutch people plan to keep it or not. (suggestion of the English).

* It demilitarized a few kilometers from the Belgian-Dutch border. The German military presence was limited to some infantry regiments to 'maintain order'. And the German possession of 'strategic resources' was limited.

* Luxembourg would be heavily demilitarized.

* Germany could not annex Dutch colonies.

* A pardon would be granted to members of the military and political opposition (liberal-republican uprisings).

A treaty with many gaps, far from perfection or satisfying either side, and which would undoubtedly only mean that the European situation continued as it has been up to now.

This meant that France and Austria-Hungary had to take shelter to lick their wounds to prepare for the next confrontation, relations between Germany and the two states were not broken or exploded, but were 'paralyzed'.

An obvious tension awaiting conflict.

Anti-German sentiment among the English increased due to this situation despite the Vienna treaty regarding the Netherlands. On the other hand Russia simply went east to continue her affairs.

Deputy War Minister Mikhail Skobeleve understood that a war between Germany and Russia was inevitable, so he prepared a plan for the future war.

(OOC: ITL Skobelev didn't die).

Germany on the other hand hoped to start putting the gains in motion, the Pan-Germanicists suddenly gained a LOT of ground with the 'victory' over the other powers and the possibility of integrating the Dutch in some way.

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[Austro-Russian rapprochement?]

"Any advice on how to deal with the Slavs?" Kaiser Rudolf I, barely 24 years old, asks Tsar Alexander III, barely 37 but with many more years of experience.

"Sorry, I have no authority over the Slavs of Austria-Hungary." Tsar Alexander III responds. "But you know, I think we can discuss some issues."

As an opposite of Germany, Kaiser Rudolf wanted to get closer to France, the United Kingdom and even Russia, to form a counterweight. Vienna was still seen as the capital of the Germanic world, above Berlin, so there was a 'German way' and an 'Austrian way' of doing things.

Tsar Alexander III and Rudolf I signed a treaty to allow the Slavic (mainly Serbian) and Hungarian migration to Russia, on the one hand it was a kind of public relations for Rudolf I to the Slavic population of him and it would allow Russia to continue growing.

Of course, in exchange for this, Russia would have to give some things in return, such as some money and slightly facilitate trade relations between the two nations.

Nothing conclusive, but it was a shy and light approach. Motivated by the 'turn' of the liberal Rudolf I was doing something more liberal than the conservative Franz Joseph.

The death of the old Kaiser also meant that the Second Mexican Empire will reactivate its relationship with the Austro-Hungarian Empire to something closer diplomatically, even commercially.

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[The English navy]

* English perspective.

With the situation in Europe being a thin layer of ice, the English navy received orders mainly to remain in the Mediterranean and the North Sea, to keep an eye on the Italians and the Germans in case of any action.

Of course this while they also focused on capturing Cairo on November 16, de-facto putting Egypt as an English protectorate (and taking it away from the Ottomans). Yet some ... crimes were committed.

Not only the looting of objects, but an entire neighborhood was burned, it is not very good publicity but nobody cares too much ...

King Edward VII for his part decides to organize various meetings with industrialists and 'new money', public outings and other events to form ties, increase the popularity of the monarchy and the government, and potentially promote future projects (such as a commercial treaty Anglo-French ...).

It was also decided that Edward VII's sister, Princess Beatrice, would marry the French Emperor Napoleon IV between 1884 and 1889.

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[Sport culture: The 16 for the 4th edition]

16 soccer teams in the next Russian Soccer League (the 4th Edition):

*Arkhangelsk.

*Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy.

*Salekhard.

*Vladivostok.

*Erivan.

*Baku.

*Anadyr.

*Rovaniemi (Finnish team of the edition).

*Omsk.

*Yakutsk.

*Irkutsk.

*Kharkov.

*Moscow.

*Lublin (Polish team of the edition).

*Murmansk.

*Saint Petersburg.

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[Internacional]

On October 14, the German Heinrich Hertz begins to work at the University of Saint Petersburg under Alexander Stepanovich Popov.

On December 21, the new regency council on the Netherlands makes many republicans, liberals and some Dutch nationalists move to the African continent, towards the Boer states. 'Free from German power'.

On the other hand, the German Pan-Germanicists celebrate, the conservative majority believe they have won wide points of publicity and achievements that guarantee their success. Crown Prince Frederick however is less than happy with Bismarck's brazen militarism and imperialism.

Now the chancellor plans ... to relax, a little more, to avoid the war between Germany and the United Kingdom that so many German newspapers predict.

*******

[Russia, Bali and Lanfang]

Between October and November, with the British navy occupied, the Russian Empire and the Kingdom of Bali sign an agreement that makes Bali a Russian protectorate, with the same privileges, rights and responsibilities as the Sultanate of Aceh.

Meanwhile with the increase in Russian trade in the area, Russia becomes the main supply of arms for the militias of the Republic of Lanfang due to the needs of the Chinese workers state, which has forced its orientation towards the Russian state.

With this, a trade agreement has been signed for Russia to sell modern equipment and weapons to Lanfang, although it is not yet a protectorate (due to the legal status as a tributary of Qing, and the possibility of external responses) it is obvious that Lanfang is falling into the Russian sphere for economic reasons.