Outguessing the Incoming Gank

Vincent followed the orders he received and built up Rage while clearing the minions. The objective was to go berserk in the next wave, so that's exactly what he planned to accomplish. Good soldiers followed orders.

However, to not arise any suspicion, Vincent made sure to charge up his Barbarian Slam to the max this time as well.

BAM! He unleashed yet another meteor-level slam on the battlefield! The attack ravaged both the swordsmen and the minions at once!

But, with great power came great responsibility. Unleashing a fully charged-up Barbarian Slam cost Vincent 30% Rage, which reduced his Rage meter to 0%.

In order to enter Berserk mode, Vincent had to climb all the way up to 80%. It sounded like a lot, but it was a no-brainer considering how quick his basic attacks were.

HACK. HACKHACK. HACKHACKHACK! He sliced and diced the minions with his dual axes!

Every strike increased his rage by almost 4%, so he recovered 77% Rage by the time he was done with the minion wave. He was now one attack away from entering Berserk mode. Mission accomplished.

[No, not quite yet.] Vincent reminded himself. [As much as I'd like to keep all this Rage intact, I must fool my opponent into thinking I'm a very calm individual who yearns for peace on the lane.]

Judging by the kind of player Theorist was, she surely has been monitoring Vincent's movements and keeping track of his Rage in her head. Therefore, she was most certainly aware that Vincent has accumulated plenty of Rage after clearing the recent wave.

Most likely, she couldn't tell that Vincent's Rage was as high as 77%. Nonetheless, Theorist will certainly be on alert if Vincent doesn't show any signs of relieving any of his Rage at all.

Thus, Vincent activated Relaxing Exhale. His Berserker took a deep breath and then exhaled rather loudly, as if trying to prove to everybody around that he did not have any anger issues in the slightest.

Normally, it was disadvantageous for a skill to have such an obvious sound cue. Giving the enemy free information on a silver platter was a surefire way to lose the cold war.

However, in this particular case, the theatrics of Relaxing Exhale came in handy. Vincent very much wanted to make a show of the fact he took such a deep breath and exhaled "plenty of Rage".

Surely, after seeing this dramatic display, Theorist was convinced that Vincent had no plans of assaulting her anytime soon. However, there was a catch hidden in the depths of this simple play!

[Though you saw me exhale, you cannot tell for sure how much Rage I lost, can you?] Vincent smiled meaningfully. [It could be 50% or it could be as little as 10%. Your only indication is my health bar, which was already full to the brim in the first place.]

Relaxing Exhale made the Berserker recover HP in proportion to the consumed Rage. This was about the only visual indicator for telling how much Rage was actually consumed, as otherwise, the animation of the skill looked practically identical no matter what.

Alas, Vincent was already in full health, therefore the recovery did nothing to him. This robbed Theorist of crucial evidence, which meant Vincent was a step ahead of his foe in this intellectual battle of information!

So, how much Rage did Vincent actually exhale? Quite the mystery it was, but one that basic math could easily solve.

He was at 77% Rage before exhaling and he had to reach 80% to go berserk, which he would have to do immediately upon Luke's arrival. Since a single basic attack earned him close to 4% Rage, it meant he had to remain above 76% in order to enter Bersker at the first opportunity that presents itself.

Thus, Vincent did exactly that. Yes, despite how loud his exhaling was, he did, in fact, only drop from 77% Rage to a little over 76%. Relaxing Exhale gave the player that much freedom to decide how much Rage should be relieved.

With this ingenious play, Vincent fooled his foe without failing the mission given to him by Chessmaster. With this, the preparations were done.

[Now, I simply must wait for the arrival of the Chosen One.] Vincent nodded. [Will he be the one to restore order to the galaxy? Or, shall he cast everything into chaos!? I dare say, it will most certainly be the latter.]

For now, Vincent retreated without pushing any further despite the great lane advantage he had. This was just the calm before the storm. This was all preparation for the next round, where things will go down for real!

On his end, Vincent made sure to not leak any details of his future plans. However, their opponents today were none other than the Leopards, the crowned regional champions! Furthermore, their strategist was Rook, a former chess rival of Chessmaster!

So, will this grand scheme truly be able to remain undercover? As expected, the enemy has been carefully analyzing the unfolding situation 24/7.

[So, they aren't ready to attack in this round.] Cato concluded.

There haven't been any suspicious movements from the enemy side on any of the lanes so far. Everything played out exactly as before in Top, so there was no reason for concern quite yet.

In general, not much had changed about the map state between the two minion waves. The enemy had lane advantage in Top and Mid, but in Bot, William and Ronald did a fine job matching the enemy's clearing speed.

For once, Ronald's early power build didn't feel so terrible to have around. Cato wished to criticize it to no end but it was somewhat of a plus for the team, at least for now.

[So, I only have to keep helping out in Top and Mid.] Cato concluded.

Like in the previous wave, Cato joined Sonya in Top once again to help with clearing out the invading minions.

It would have been much better if Cato could split into two and cover both Top and Mid at the same time. Alas, the world only had enough space for one overlord.

As such, Cato had to prioritize Top over Mid for now, given that Sorcerer had a much better clearing speed than Dragonborn.

"Sorry, Matt," Cato apologized. "You'll have to deal with that lane situation on your own for a while."

"Okay." Matthew merely shrugged in response. It was going to be a drag but he'll manage. It was understandable why Cato had to prioritize Top given the circumstances, so Matthew had no valid arguments.

And so, Cato joined the clearing efforts in Top. The minions there almost made their way into the Turret's area but Cato got their attention just before it happened.

This meant all the minions were now going to focus their fire on Cato, but this was still better than losing precious gold and exp from farming under the tower.

[I'll gladly sacrifice a little bit of HP to ensure we get all the farm.] Cato accepted the hits as they came.

Playing the role of a punchbag wasn't fun in the slightest, but Vampire wasn't afraid of a little damage. The lifesteal built into his passive ensured that he'll be able to recover from these injuries in no time.

Essentially, his HP was a replenishable resource, whereas the gold and exp gained from minions were limited in supply. As such, trading HP for gold and exp was often a good deal.

Naturally, the minions had every intention of claiming their share of this trade. Thus, they started firing at him without further ado.

Once the minions' attention was fully concentrated on Cato, Sonya came out of the tower area to help with the cleanup effort. She was taking full advantage of the "punchbag" service that Cato was offering.

[My, this woman has no feelings.] Cato shook his head. [Here I am, going out of my way to help her clear the minions, but she feels absolutely nothing from seeing me getting trashed by them! So cold. Sob sob.]

"Thanks," Sonya offered minimal gratitude once the entire endeavor was done with. As far as she was concerned, this was just a dry business transaction between her and Cato. They were diplomatic allies and this play served both of their interests.

"I'm counting on you for the next wave too," Sonya said matter-of-factly.

"Yes, yes, of course." Cato smiled impishly. "After all, a good boss takes care of his workers~"

"Who is your 'worker', exactly?" Sonya made a face.

"My No. 1 most trusted secretary, of course~"

"Hah." Sonya spat a sigh. "Anyway, I haven't gathered any new data in this round. I assume you were about to ask about that."

"My, such perception. Yes, I was about to ask whether you saw any hints about an incoming gank."

"The Berserker used his Exhale, so I assume it means he's not planning to go hard in the next wave either. Though, I cannot say how much Rage he actually exhaled, seeing as he's at full health."

"So, in theory, he could've lost as little as 1%," Cato said. "The guy might be sitting on the edge of going berserk as we speak."

"Yes, that's indeed possible." Sonya nodded. "But overall, if they're planning something for Top anytime soon, then they've been doing a good job keeping it under wrappers so far. I haven't seen their DK in Top Jungle for a while now."

"He has probably recalled by now," Cato said. "It's more common for Junglers to recall around the third wave, but DK loses HP every time he blasts. So, I bet he has to take an early leave unless he wants to be ballsy and recover his HP with a kill."

"That whole thing is clownery at its finest."

"It sure is, isn't it?"

"So, assuming he recalled, do you think he plans to make a move during the next wave?"

"Most definitely," Cato asserted. "He hasn't pulled anything big ever since the game opening, so he must have been waiting to recover his HP first. Which means the next wave is where things will go down for real."

"And since we don't know where he'll strike, everybody has to be on high alert."

"Yes, that's true. Did you hear that, everybody? Be vigilant on the next wave. A DK might be coming after you~"

"Got it." "No problem!" "Sure." Everybody confirmed that they heard the message loud and clear. Now, if any of them makes a careless mistake and gets killed, then Cato will have the luxury to rub it into their face. ["I told you!"]

Alas, he was in no position to enjoy such base mischief. As the captain, the shot-caller, and the Jungler, it was his responsibility to come up with a countermeasure to the enemy's next ploy.

[When will Yuel choose to strike?] Cato examined the situation in every lane. There was plenty of information available on the board. The answer to his question was definitely buried somewhere out there.

[But, Yuel knows that too.] Cato smiled impishly. [So, will he go for the best option I can think of? Or, will he settle on the second-best option in fear of getting read? It's like the "wine in front of me" dilemma, isn't it?]

Yuel was like a bartender serving wine. He filled two cups, one for himself and one for Cato. However, one of these cups was secretly filled with poison, and now Cato had to decide whether to drink from his own cup or to take Yuel's instead.

Was Yuel the type to fill his own cup with poison? Or, will he play it safe and poison Cato's cup?

[I'm almost certain he's the type to do the former.] Cato thought. [In this analogy, I'd say poisoning your own cup is similar to going for the optimal play while knowing there's a risk of it being read and countered.]

Yuel seemed like the type who assumed that most of his opponents wouldn't bet on him taking the riskier option, which was exactly how he caught many of his opponents off-guard. It was practically his trademark strategy, both in chess and in Classmancers.

[But, I'm sure he knows that's my impression of him.] Cato thought. [Which is why it'd make sense for him to switch things up against me during such an important play and go for the second-best option. BUT, he also knows I might take all of this into consideration, so he may opt for the first option after all.]

Indeed, it was a "wine in front of me" problem, an endless sequence of outguessing. Cato tried to outguess Yuel who will outguess Cato in return, which forced Cato to try outguessing Yuel's outguessing and so forth.

[In the end, it's like a coin toss.] Cato concluded. [The best I can do here is go for the play that'll minimize risks and will improve our position as much as possible.]

Currently, Stratus was holding the upper hand in Top and Mid quite convincingly. However, in Bot, the situation was rather even. At least, that's how Cato saw the game state.

It was very much possible that other people had a different impression of the current board. As such, it was worth asking for more input.

"Say, Sonya," Cato started. "Assuming the DK gank is really coming, which lane do you suppose he'll target?"

"I asked you the same thing a moment ago."

"Yes, you did. But, I'd like to hear what [your] guess is."

"I don't have enough data to answer that," Sonya replied immediately. She has already analyzed this question thoroughly as she tried to come up with her own answer.

Her conclusion? There was insufficient data. As such, she didn't want to take responsibility for making any premature guesses that might influence the other team members.

"My, you're dodging responsibility as usual, aren't you~?"

"Hmph. I see absolutely no reason why I should take an uninformed guess. It'll only force me to take responsibility in case somebody decides to act upon it."

"True, true. It's usually my responsibility to do that and take the blame for it, isn't it?"

"Yes, exactly. Good luck, captain."

"Thank you, haha..." Cato smiled wryly. "Can we at least compare notes? What's your view of the current map situation?"

"The enemy is maintaining the upper hand in Top and Mid," Sonya answered robotically as if reading notes from a mental notebook. "In Top, they'll continue maintaining their advantage for a while due to the matchup advantage. In Mid, things should even out once the Electromancer's power buff wears out."

"Yes, I concur so far. What about Bot?"

"Both sides are about even right now, but the Elf will soon lose his power buff. Once that happens, their side will likely start lagging behind."

"Mhm, that's the gist of my take on the situation as well." Cato nodded. "There's also the fact Elf is a late-game class, contrary to the rest of their aggressive early-game comp. So, they're probably going to feed the Elf a lot and accelerate his build as much as possible."

"Yes, that makes sense. I can't imagine any other game plan for Elf in this kind of team comp. There's no way they're planning to take this into late-game."

"Right. Maybe they picked it as a safety net in case their early-game aggression falls through."

"That doesn't sound like a very bright idea," Sonya judged.

"True, it seems suboptimal. But then again, is picking DK for Jungler a bright idea?"

"Absolutely not. If I had to rate it on a scale of 1/10 to 10/10, I'd rate it as -100/10."

"Haha, harsh. But yes, it's really as quirky as it gets."

"Anyway," Sonya summarized. "That's my analysis of the current game stat. But, don't expect me to try outguessing the enemy's next move. As I said, there isn't enough data to predict where they'll gank next."

"And yet, I have no choice but to make some sort of prediction." Cato smiled wryly. He had already done the most important part of warning the team, but that wasn't enough.

As the Jungler, Cato had to carefully choose his positioning for this critical play. And as the shot-caller, he was responsible for foiling Yuel's plans.

Thus, he had to reach a decision of some sort despite the lack of concrete evidence. At least now, that he confirmed his understanding of the board state matched Sonya's, Cato felt a little more comfortable with trying to outguess Yuel.

After all, if Cato and Sonya both reached the same conclusions regarding the game state, then surely Yuel was reasoning along the same lines as well. As such, it should be possible to figure him out.

[Ganking Top should be out of the question.] Cato thought. [Berserker is already a soft counter, and ganking a Dragonborn, in general, is a pain. So, this is between Mid and Bot.]

Mid was the more important lane, but the lane situation there was rather neutral at the moment. Beat was holding the upper hand for now thanks to the power buff, but it'll expire soon and then Matthew will be able to match her in strength.

With that said, it was unlikely for Matthew to establish any lane dominance there by himself given his playstyle. As such, Yuel probably didn't feel too pressured to gank the lane anytime soon.

On the other hand, in Bot, the situation clearly favored the Leopards in the long run. Even though Elf and Seraph were both late-game classes, Ronald's aggressive build will tilt the odds in the Leopards' favor soon enough.

Gunz has only been holding his ground for now thanks to the power buff, but it'll expire soon. Once that happens, Bot will likely be under the Leopards' control until the mid-game.

For Stratus, this was equivalent to losing their early momentum. It was something that an aggressive opponent definitely didn't like seeing.

[Will Yuel allow that to pass? Hmm.] Cato couldn't tell. Figuring out the chaotic mess that was Yuel's brain was beyond Cato's capabilities.

On one hand, it seemed sensible to assume that Yuel would do anything in his power to secure the early-game advantage across the entire map, which meant he'd want to hit Bot with a gank. On the other hand, it was also possible for Yuel to prioritize Mid in order to rush to victory as quickly as humanly possible.

[Either way, it's clear that I should be hanging out around Bot Jungle.] Cato concluded. [From there, it remains to be seen whether they target Mid or Bot. I can just stick close to the center of the jungle in order to be able to rotate to either lane on demand.]

It was far from ideal but at least it should allow Cato to respond in a timely fashion to a gank on either lane. Besides, the enemy might be discouraged from going through with the gank if they see Cato hanging around Bot Jungle like that. Though, that was probably nothing more than hopium.

[With this arrangement, I have a 66.7% chance of being right, so the odds are on my side.] Cato reassured himself. [Now, it's your turn, Yuel. Let's see what you cooked up for us this time.]

Little did he know that what Yuel "cooked up" was exactly the remaining 33.3%...