Chapter 1

On the very day Gotouda Fuki's funeral services ended, Seishin slipped from the graveyard to pay a visit to the Ozaki clinic. The lights were out in the waiting room. Instead, the light in the window facing the courtyard was lit. On the first floor of the main house, the nearest window was Toshio's bedroom. 

Maneuvering around the garden trees, avoiding the shrubbery, he went into the yard. Through the lace curtains he could see TToshio's room which he had become used to coming and going from. It was a western style room that was once a parlor. Toshio's bedroom was moved from a room on the second floor to this one sometime during grade school, wasn't it? It was many times larger than his bedroom on the second floor had been it it seemed like Toshio had some lingering affection for the second story. --Indeed, the move wasn't Toshio's will. The reason for why Takae suddenly moved Toshio's room to there, Seishin understood immediately even as a child. Even that night night feeling a pang of guilt that he'd harbored since then, Seishin tapped on the glass. Toshio, sitting back on the bed, looked up and jerked his chin in a motion for him to enter. 

"---Yo."

The room was jumbled, a collection of Toshio's life history gathered within. The bed that hadn't been moved once since he was a child, a writing desk. The books on the shelves changed from reference books to medical journals, the contents of his lowboard went from idle collectables and records to bottles of western liquor but as the change was gradual, it didn't feel uncomfortable.

"Want a drink?"

Toshio motioned lightly to his glass, then opened the refrigerator, only household good he'd gained since succeeding the house. Without waiting for Seishin's response, he put ice into an extra glass. 

"---And? What's up." 

Toshio's voice as he poured the liquor and added water was oozing with an air of nonchalance. Seishin hesitated to speak, and for a while, without a word, he looked troubled at his glass. Toshio made a deliberately calm face, turning his eyes with disinterest towards the program on TV as he lit a cigarette. 

"...Hey, what's happening in the village?"

"What do you mean what?"

"Shuuji-san, the three in Yamairi, Megumi-chan, Giichi-san, Fuki-san. ---For a single summer, don't you think that's too many dead?" 

Toshio's voice was blunt. "Last summer there were four people. Who died. If we're talking about what's too many, it's probably about three. In the summer old people's bodies give out. Even more if they're older with a chronic disease. The heat this year's been harsher than usual, too."

"That's not what I'm saying." How many people died last summer, or even the year before that, couldn't be unknown information to Seishin who was none other than a monk."Certainly, there are plenty of older people in the village like Gigorou-san who are in bad condition. There's no lack of bedridden elders like Giichi-san, either. Those elderly dying may be ordinary enough for the year. But how many like Shuuji-san die in the prime of their life? Accidents aside, from illness?"

Toshio's voice as he responded was unnecessarily flippant. 

"Shuuji-san's at the right age for adult diseases. Malignant tumors, heart failure, cerebral hemorrhages, the so called sudden death, suddenly dying off isn't something unheard of."

"Then, Megumi-chan? --Of course, it's not unheard for for someone young to suddenly die of a disease. That's been what's happening and will likely be what keeps happening But, it's been at most half a month that we've had this many in a row. Is this what you would call common?

Fuki-san, too, was at the age where something happening at any time wouldn't be strange. She herself was aware of that and had made voluntary arrangements for her own burial plot. For Fuki-san, if she only died after a quick striking illness, that might have really been a good thing. There isn't anything especially strange. --But, only half a month before that, her son died. A healthy middle aged man in the prime of his life, with a sound body, and without any particular chronic illnesses. He suddenly died, and half a month later his mother suddenly dies. Both without time for hospitalization, true sudden death. Is that something that happens a lot?"

"It's not like it's impossible, is it? With her son dead, an old aged mother'd be heartbroken."

"And if before her son died, her blood brother died?"

Seishin stared at Toshio, Toshio intentionally keeping watch over the TV.

"The Murasako's Hidemasa, too, was at an age where something happening wouldn't be strange. If Hidemasa-san alone had suddenly died, even I wouldn't have any doubts about it. The same for Gigorou-san, and the same for Mieko-san. But three people did, ---and on top of that, three people who lived in the same community, all died at once? Directly after that, his nephew in the prime of his life suddenly died, and half a month later his sister died. Each and every one of them were without the immediate care of a physician, without knowing if anything was wrong with any of them anywhere, without treatment or rest, just the sudden conclusion. Are you going to tell me that those are ordinary circumstances?"

Toshio didn't answer. As if bothered by the smoke from his own cigarette, he only furrowed his brows. 

"As separate cases, indeed, there isn't anything suspicious. Elders die often enough, and it isn't unheard of for the young to die suddenly. Each one alone, or even if there were only two, could be thought of like that. But, when the numbers come out to this much, and in a row. Isn't there a meaning to it if they're serialized?"

"What are you saying it means?"

"....it isn't a plague, is it?"

At Seishin's inquiry, Toshio's gaze tore from the TV as he turned to face Seishin. He pushed his cigarette into the ash tray. 

"That's an old style way of saying it." With a faint smile, he turned down the volume on the TV and brought out a stack of documents from beneath the low table. He placed them on top of the table. "Indeed, there have been a lot have deaths this summer."

Toshio folded his hands over the documents. 

"Even taking into account how many old people there are and the heat, it's abnormal. Within about half a month, seven people, just out of the ones I know, are dead. Ohkawa Gigorou, Murasako Hidemasa, Murasako Mieko, Gotouda Shuuji, Shimizu Megumi, Yasumori Giichi, Gotouda Fuki, ---in short, seven people."

Seishin nodded. 

"Last year all year how many deaths do you think there were? Our of just the people I know, it's eight. Five I wrote out death certificates for, the other three were transferred to the hospital in Mizobe and a report came in to me of their deaths. There may be more deaths I didn't have any business with, but at most there were as few as ten deaths or about. Even if we have a few more old people than the national regional average, that was the situation last year. Regardless of that, this August, and just in half of that month, we've already had a death count vigorously approaching one year's. Just the rise in numbers is abnormal. This isn't a normal situation."

"....Aa."

"It's not just a problem of numbers. I don't know Shuuji-san's cause of death. I wrote acute heart failure down at face value but if you say it honestly, it's cause of death unknown. Same for Gigorou-san, same for Hidemasa-san. Megumi-chan. Fuki-san. Five people died suddenly, and we're not very clear on that cause of death. For Mieko baa-san, there was a police autopsy but after all it was hard to say a precise cause. If you want one you could say there's nothing suspicious about, Giichi-san would be about it." Toshio lightly tapped the stack of documents. "No matter how you think about it, it's abnormal. And Shuuji-san is Hidemasa-san's nephew. Fuki-san was Shuuji-san's mother. The three in Yamairi were living together like a family. Of the six people who met with an unclear death, the only one without a connection to the other dead is Megumi, otherwise all of them had a close connection with each other. This undefinable death sparks off to people nearby. Indeed---I can only think of it as contagious."

Seishin exhaled deeply. It was a strain holding onto unease as nothing more than unease. Indeed it was true that it was a relief to have it make opaque but having it clarified like this meant the worst for the village. 

"If it's an epidemic, it's a serious matter."

The people of the village had intimate connections, complicated like a meshed net. And the drainage system was far from complete. Kanemasa had been a backer and there was supplementary assistance from the city towards establishing a septic system but some portion of water for daily living even now was drawn from the river. Even with a waterworks system established, many villagers still used underground water in some form or another, and in the mountains, people drew drinking water from the swamp. But, in the mountains that encircled the village, there were spatterings of graveyards about. Even now the dead were buried there. 

Seishin pointed that out, and Toshio lightly shook his head. 

"If it's an epidemic. --But, that's not for sure yet."

"But."

"Don't rush ahead of yourself," Toshio said in a low, flat tone. "It's not good to make predictions. Things being what they are, if we embrace any weird predictions, there's the serious possibility it'll slow us down on grasping what the real situation is."

"Aa---that's right, my mistake."

"It looks like an epidemic but we can't say for sure. We can't put a name to the disease. At least for now, no epidemics that fit the symptoms come to mind. Unidentified is the true state of things. It might be a contagion, and it might not be. Thinking about it it might be a virus, it might be bacteria, we're completely in the mist about it. There's the possibility of it being a parasite, or the possibility that it's a mass poisoning. What we do know is that something unusual is happening, that's where we're at."

Seishin nodded. 

"The question now is whether something's happening or not. Why have there been so many deaths, that's what we have to grasp."

From within the pile of documents, Toshio sought and dug out the clinical records.

"Megumi-chan's house call was on August 22nd. Megumi-chan fell the day before that on the 21st. She was found collapsed after a mountain hunt, and since then had been in bad condition, so I think we can think of her outbreak as being on on the 21st. Before that, there wasn't anything particularly wrong. At the least, her family didn't see anything wrong with her, and she herself wasn't claiming any complaints. Thinking that was strange, the family called me on the night of the 22nd, and it was three days after that she died. Four days after the outbreak. By the way Megumi-chan, when I saw her, didn't look at all from any angle like a patient three days from death."

"Right...."

"Aside from anemia, Megumi-chan didn't have anything else that could be seen as wrong with her. Why did she suddenly end up dying is, to be honest, something I don't know." Toshio threw out Megumi's clinical records on the table, lit a cigarette and exhaled smoke. "There's a danger of an epidemic. That's something I'm not denying. If on the off chance it is one, there's the possibility it'll become serious. That's why we need to investigate to understand the true state of things but that's a difficult problem."

"It's a difficult problem?"

Toshio nodded.

"The last time I saw Megumi-chan, she was incredibly lethargic, like just talking was tiring but she herself didn't seem to be aware of anything being out of order. That's probably how it was. Aside from the anemia, there wasn't anything special wrong with her. Pain, fever, if there was anything that could be assessed that was unusual, or even if the patient seemed off, I'd have been anxious. But, just being tired or easily worn out isn't something to consult a doctor for a diagnosis over. If those are the first symptoms of this illness, we're in trouble."

Knowing what he was trying to say, Seishin nodded. "Aa, that's true. Feeling sluggish and all is a common thing. Even thinking there might be a temperature and measuring it to find out there isn't one really does happen a lot."

"Right. There's nobody who'd come rushing into the hospital over that, and we wouldn't be able to take it if they did come in over just that."

"All the more because the patient would know that. They look for the precise cause. A cold, every day fatigue, drinking too much, maybe those were the cause, they would think of every day occurrences. If that became even worse, they'd first probably lie down for a rest, doubting whether or not to consult a doctor."

"That's how it is. The patient doesn't feel anything's wrong. I can sleep it off, is how they think of it. Even so the battle with this illness is over quick. By all rights, there's no time to hesitate."

While hesitating another dead body with an imprecise death would appear. All Toshio could see was an indistinct dead body. There wasn't time to see how it progressed or run any tests. This was how the situation progressed in reality. If Shimizu hadn't had Megumi seen by Toshio, there would have been nothing seen in it by Seishin and the others other than another case of the "inexplicable serial sudden deaths."

"This starts out incredibly casual." Toshio stirred through the documents without aim. "Megumi-chan's started with anemia. I don't know about Gigorou-san or Hidemasa-san but Mieko baa-san came to the hospital just a little bit before those two died, saying they weren't well, that it was probably a summer cold."

"I heard the same thing when Shuuji-san died She thought it was a summer cold or that the summer heat was getting to him, Fuki-san was saying."

"I heard it too. A summer cold without a fever, Fuki-san said, Mieko baa-san said it too. In short, sluggish, without an appetite, and poor complexion. What or how they can't say but somehow they just don't look right, in other words. It's possible that might be from anemia after all, or maybe there's some way it appears besides anemia. At any rate, anemia sets in and it starts with trivial symptoms. From there, withina  few days it suddenly gets much worse. You could even say drastic."

"Mieko-san had liver failure, right?"

"Right. The two old guys in Yamairi, Shuuji-san, and Megumi-chan are unclear. Fuki-san might have had acute renal failure. Uremia from renal failure, and that's the cause of death, I'd been thinking. Giichi-san may be the exception but anyway, he had aspiration pneumonia. Those are all the cards in my hand. Even though seven people've died."

Seishin groaned in his throat. Toshio needed detailed data but the early stages of it were just too trivial, the patient themselves would have no sense of impending danger. If they didn't come into the hospital, clinical data couldn't be assembled. That said, if they had the public offices spread the concern, with it starting as trivially as it did, everyone and anyone would flood the hospital and a panic would be unavoidable. 

As if reading Seishin's thoughts, Toshio murmured. "Making a stupidly honest announcement of the situation would just be dangerous with no benefits. Tired, no appetite, worn out easily, if people came into the hospital over just that, the hospital'll be paralyzed. And that's not all, in the event it really is an epidemic, the hospital itself wouldn't be able to help becoming a source of contamination."

"But we can't leave it as it is can we? Anyway, at the point something feels off, we need to have them come in."

"We can't take it," Toshio sighed. "For those who've contracted it, we don't want them to think of it as nothing, but to look at it more seriously and come to the hospital. We want the patients who haven't contracted it not to make a pointless fuss and get neurotic. But whether they've contracted it or not the patient themselves wouldn't know."

Seishin nodded. "But, for the time being I think that there's a need to call attention to it. There are many whose physical conditions are deteriorating, so be aware; if we don't at least say that much, then..."

"Just thinking about what it's going to bring on is a pain in the ass but that's all we can do. We'll have to get the public office to cooperate with us, huh?" Toshio breathed a deep sigh. "We'll consult with the public health official Ishida-san, and spread it through the public office to get things under way. At any rate, that's the only way we even can start."