45

Chapter 45: Part XLVNotes:

(See the end of the chapter for notes.)

Chapter Text

Disclaimer: I own nothing, just borrowing for a while.

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"The Legions proved that the Stepstones were a path heading East as well as West. They showed little inclination to return home willingly and a greater reluctance to be forced to do so."

Ser Jorah Mormont – 318 AL

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The Red Keep – King's Landing – 299 AC

Eddard Stark, Lord Protector of the Seven Kingdoms looked down at the large map of Westeros and the Narrow Sea spread across the table. He was starting to believe that humouring the boy-king by allowing him to present his suggested plan of action to the Small Council may have been a mistake. "You'll have to explain that again" he said, giving the king a quizzical, slightly confused look. "You think we need to start a war of a second front in order to avoid fighting a war on a second front?" he asked dubiously.

Octavian nodded. "More precisely we need to fight a war on a second front now when we can win it quickly and expediently" he replied. "Thus avoid facing a situation where we have to fight it at considerable disadvantage later" he added.

"Explain if you would, Your Grace" Tywin Lannister requested, suspecting he knew what his grandson meant but wanting to be sure.

"Of course, My Lord" Octavian agreed. "Though some may believe our immediate priority should be to reinforce the Wall still further, that being in order to defend against both the Wildlings at our gates now and a likely White Walker invasion later, we simply don't have the infrastructure or logistics in place as yet to support such a move" he stated with certainty having analysed the situation and done the math. "While there are ongoing efforts underway to rebuild the castles along the Wall, making more of them habitable and able to house expanded garrisons, as yet we simply don't have accommodation to house many more troops than we have already dispatched" he explained. "Fundamentally the increasingly harsh weather conditions in the region preclude the notion that we can simply provide a few tents and hope they won't freeze to death. They need proper barracks as well as sufficient supplies to last out a potentially long and harsh winter."

"That's true enough. Even my people need a proper roof over their heads in winter and southerners wouldn't have a hope of surviving outside" Stark confirmed. "Pray continue, Your Grace".

Octavian nodded his assent. "As the castles in disrepair are restored we can gradually transfer more men to bolster the garrisons, and that additional manpower can then be used to help restore other castles, but that all needs to be carried out systematically" he told the room. "Simply throwing large numbers of men at the problem in a haphazard manner would be wasteful folly. Even putting aside the egregious waste of human life we simply cannot afford to squander our manpower resources. We're too outnumbered in fighting strength, if not population."

Judging by their expressions the rest of the Small Council were as yet unconvinced Octavian surmised. "The other advantage of delaying the dispatch of more men is that we can detail our available shipping to transport additional stores of food and other necessities to the Wall instead" he continued. "Thus when the bulk of wave of our armies arrive there will already be ample supplies to sustain them for the campaign. Fortunately it'll soon be cold enough up there that we can store foods other than merely salted meat and hard-tack biscuit for long periods without it becoming mouldy or rancid, which is a both a blessing logistically and good for morale."

"None of which explains why you want to conquer the Stepstones, Your Grace" Renly spoke up.

Octavian adopted the superior, more than slightly smug expression he was wont to do at such moments. "Because when we do deploy our forces to defend against the barbarian hordes, and the demons following in their wake, we are going to become entirely open to invasion across the Narrow Sea uncle" he explained, pointing at the Stepstones on the map. "We cannot ignore the possibility that another barbarian horde is heading our way, this one made up of a hundred-thousand Dothraki instead of a hundred-thousand Wildlings, and that the Targaryen at its head is opportunistic enough to strike when we're least able to stop them."

"There is no indication that we are threatened by such an invasion, your Grace" Varys countered.

"Not yet, but we could be looking at a two year long autumn followed by five or more years of winter. Easily long enough for the Targaryen threat to become more than merely a faint glimmer on the horizon" Octavian replied. "Regardless of how successful we might be in beating back the invaders to our north it would be stupidity to assume our losses will be light, Wall or no."

Octavian adopted a serious expression. "If our foe to the East possesses even a smidgin of intelligence they will wait until we have defeated the Wildlings and White Walkers, making Westeros a place worth conquering, and then they will fall upon us via the Stepstones before we have the opportunity to rebuild our strength" he told the Small Council. "Our forces will be caught out of position at the other end of the country and likely badly mauled to boot. It's certainly when and where I would choose to drop the warhammer, as my father might have put it."

"The Dothraki are loathe to travel by sea, Your Grace" Grand Maester Pycelle pointed out.

"Which is precisely why the most favoured route for an invasion by them is by the route which not only involves the shortest crossing but also keeps land in sight thanks to all the islands between the Broken Arm of Dorne and the Disputed Lands in Essos" Octavian replied.

"The Andals invaded Westeros via the Vale" Petyr Baelish noted.

Octavian smiled. "We could only pray they were stupid enough to try and invade there given that the terrain is hardly suitable for an army of light cavalry" he replied. "For that matter if we're really lucky they could try and cross at the Stormlands and get dashed on the rocks for their trouble" he continued with a chuckle. "More seriously the Royal Fleet could interdict an invasion on the high seas far more readily than it could in the Stepstones, that's the reason we've never quite managed to stamp out piracy there" he continued. "It's also worth consideration that the climate in the Stepstones, and from there onto Dorne, is going to be the one most comfortable for the Horse Lords on arrival. Almost the entirety of the Dothraki Sea is to the south of the Vale after all."

"My grandson makes a valid point" Tywin concurred. "Dorne is the only part of Westeros that is actually more hospitable in winter than in summer, cold winds from the north make the deserts less scorching. Not that the Dothraki are unfamiliar with deserts. I've heard that the Red Waste makes Dorne in high summer look verdant by comparison."

Octavian swept his hand over the map from Dorne into the Reach. "Imagine a hundred-thousand Dothraki Screamers casting a swathe of destruction from Oldtown to the Riverlands, devastating our farmlands."

"The knights of the Reach would stop them" Mace Tyrell stated with certainty.

"I doubt we can expect them to fight fair, or rather stupid, and try to meet a charge of heavy cavalry with light, My Lord" Tywin responded sardonically. "They'll divide into smaller bands and use their mobility to conduct chevauchee raids aimed at starving our population and crippling our economy."

"That being basically how they destroyed the Sarnori during the Century of Blood, although they did show an ability to fight a large-scale pitched battle against theoretically better-equipped armies there too" Octavian recalled. "At the battle known later as the 'Field of Crows' the Sarnori fielded ten thousand heavy cavalry, an equal number of light cavalry, a hundred-thousand infantry and perhaps six thousand chariots but they were shattered by a smaller force of Dothraki numbering no more than eighty-thousand."

"Most of the Sarnori were infantry and infantry are no match for cavalry" Tyrell opined. "Our own mounted knights would crush any number of them underfoot" he said confidently as would be expected of a lord from the kingdom that most heavily favoured that arm. Even the Vale, whose own tradition of knighthood was older and more established than that of the Reach, leaned more heavily on infantry as a necessary consequence of its geography.

"If that were the case then the twenty-five thousand Dothraki who attacked Qohor would not have been vanquished by three-thousand Unsullied" Octavian heartily disagreed. "Peasant levees are no match for good cavalry, but well trained and disciplined infantry armed with pikes are a very different thing entirely. You can't shatter a line of eighteen foot long pikes with nine foot long lances if the pikemen stand their ground."

Both Tywin Lannister and Eddard Stark nodded their agreement. The Westerlands and the North had been fielding increasing numbers of pikemen over the years though the better trained Lannister army likely had the edge in forming up into pike-blocks when ordered and holding formation on the move.

Petyr Baelish laughed. "Even if the knight was stupid enough to try it the horse would object."

"This is all beside the point in any case because, even if we had plenty of good infantry to help our knights keep the Dothraki at bay, they'll likely all be at the Wall when needed to do so. Unless we make it considerably more difficult for the Horse Lords to get here in the first place" Octavian brought the conversation back on topic. "The means being the Defensive War I'm advocating."

Eddard Stark frowned. "We've never managed to hold onto the Stepstones very long despite sending armies there on multiple occasions" he reminded the room. "It's not just a matter of subduing a few bands of pirates, the Free Cities have a vested interest in preventing the Seven Kingdoms controlling the trade routes and the Narrow Sea itself."

"Maegor the Cruel managed to bring them to heel for a while, as did Daemon Targaryen later, but they had dragons and nobody has ever managed to hold onto the islands for more than a few years before being ousted by another faction" Tywin recalled the lessons of history himself. "My memories of fighting there during the War of the Ninepenny Kings are still fresh despite all the years that have passed since. They're a fiendish place to fight over, let alone try and control wouldn't you agree Ser Barristan?" he asked the other veteran of that war present.

"I would, My Lord" Barristan Selmy concurred. "I remember with sadness the day your uncle Jason fell in battle on Bloodstone bravely leading the Lannister host" he continued. "And when your own great-grandfather Ormund was stuck down by the pretender Maelys the Monstrous, Your Grace" he added, looking to Octavian. "Those islands have been bathed in the blood of the men of Westeros far too often."

Octavian feigned a suitable emotional response adopting a saddened expression but was inwardly as unmoved as ever. "Beyond the fact of that conflict proving another example of how vital the Stepstones are to our security, in reality that war is not comparable to the defensive war I'm advocating" he said eventually after what he believed was a suitable pause. "Maelys enjoyed the support of a relatively large and experienced army, one that was built around an extremely effective corps of professional soldiers in the form of the Golden Company" he explained his argument. "The brigands and pirate bands that would resist a Westerosi army on the Stepstones today would be swiftly swept aside in they tried to resist on land."

"Perhaps the king should consider that those pirates would be likely to take to the sea and resist us there instead, likely by raiding our supply lines or even attacking ports along our coasts if they proved unable to match the Royal Fleet in battle" Tywin counselled.

"Oh, that's why we'll employ the Iron Fleet to drive the pirates, or perhaps I should say other pirates, from the seas" Octavian replied. "Quellon Greyjoy dispatched a hundred vessels of the Iron Fleet to assist against Maelys, I'm confident I can talk his son Balon into doing likewise."

"Balon Greyjoy has never struck me as that reasonable" Stark responded with northern understatement.

"I'm very persuasive" Octavian said assuredly. Of course he also knew that he intended a secret proposal to hand ownership of Bloodstone island, largest in the Stepstones, over to the Ironborn once he ruled in his own stead. This was by no means an act of altruism of course, he wanted the Iron Fleet to help turn the Narrow Sea into a Westerosi lake and he also wanted those damn raiders, reivers and rapists making life miserable for the Essosi instead of his own citizens.

The Free Cities were ripe for a few more defensive wars in the future, he just needed to wait for a pretext, or ideally an invitation to back one of them against another after which Westeros would find, or invent, a plausible reason to stay. They might even try to support the pirate kingdoms of the Stepstones against the Westeros which he could use as a casus belli later, whipping up public opinion against them when the time was right.

"The way I see it we'll need to move ahead with annexation of the Stepstones before the end of autumn, that means we don't need to decide immediately but neither can we prevaricate forever" Octavian contended. "If we fail to do so then I foresee a future in which we're caught with our braies down at the Wall and we've got a Dothraki army on our soil heading north to fuck us up the arse" he said flatly.

"What could be worse?" Petry Baelish asked rhetorically, smirking at Renly who glared back at him.

Tywin glared at both of them before turning to Octavian. "I imagine you have a detailed proposal in writing, Your Grace?"

"Naturally" Octavian replied. "The attached notes feature maps and estimated timetables, as well as calculated logistical requirements for the campaign. Best and worst case scenarios for required financial expenditures and casualties incurred of course" he said. "I also have a preliminary proposal for infrastructure improvements to the Stepstones, and changes to tariffs on goods passing through the islands that would benefit the Royal Treasury, but that still needs some work I'm afraid."

"Took a break from sketching out the new roads and aqueducts you want to build did you, Your Grace?" Eddard Stark asked, amused by the boys industriousness though Sansa had complained it was sometimes difficult to drag him away from his planning to walk with her in the gardens.

"I got as far with those as I could without needing to have the land properly surveyed" Octavian told him regretfully. At least once he 'invented' the Groma, Dioptra and Hodometer, and demonstrated how to use them, he could put some people to work on it.

Stark smiled. "If you're not planning for the future you're drilling the City Watch" he observed. "Have you ever considered doing something more fun?" he asked.

Octavian looked puzzled by the question. "This is fun" he replied, thinking that other people must have very low standards as it pertained to recreational activities.

Petyr Baelish smirked again. Perhaps what he needed to do in order to get the annoying little bastard out of his hair was to find him a hobby more distracting than scheming and reading through ledgers he decided as the Small Council moved onto other matters.

Several hours later, after attending another meeting with the Alchemists Guild (the 'invention' of useable concrete seemed imminent), some time spent discussing the possible use of Qohorik steel in arbalest crossbow prods with Tobho Mott on the Street of Steel (the blacksmith hated the idea of using the finest quality steel in anything but a sword but reluctantly agreed it would work very well), and finally a parade of the City Watch (they were less of a rabble every day) Octavian trudged up the stairs of Maegor's Holdfast looking forward to a nice meal and a warm bed.

Tyrion was waiting for him outside his quarters with an amused expression. "Petyr Baelish thought you might like to relax after another hectic day" the dwarf told him. "I agreed it would do wonders for your morale and relieve some built up stress" he said, chuckling to himself. "I personally vouch for the entertainment. See you tomorrow, Your Grace" he said, bowing deeply then continuing to chuckle as he headed away down the corridor.

Octavian rolled his eyes, this would either be a large quantity of wine or a whore he decided, opening his door and stepping inside.

He was almost correct, it was two whores in a state of partial undress.

"I apologise for your time being wasted but I'm really not in the mood" Octavian told them, stood in front of the still open doorway. "It's Ros isn't it? He asked, recognising one of them from a few weeks prior. "You were dressing up as the Lady Melisandre for clients with an interest in such a performance" he recalled.

Ros smiled and curtsied, she actually did it very well. "I'm honoured you remembered my name, Your Grace" she confirmed.

"Legally speaking it was an unforgettable case" Octavian replied. "I will of course make sure you are both well paid for the evening but I must insist you be on your way" he told them seriously, this was a vice he had sworn not to partake in.

This was not to say he did not find both ladies attractive, it was simply that he had long ago determined that allowing oneself to be dictated to by one's sexual desires was idiotic.

If his uncle Julius Caesar had been better able to contain his lusts then he would have avoided his politically damaging affair with Cleopatra at the very least. Not to mention the likelihood that his dalliance with Servilia, mother of Brutus, might have been what ended up getting him killed in the end because she was not happy when he broke off their relationship and that woman really knew how to hold a grudge.

"If Daisy and I have offended you, we apologise, Your Grace" Ros responded, sounding sincere though of course she would be well practiced at deceiving men as to her true feelings.

"No need" Octavian replied, honestly he just wished they would bugger off at this point.

"Perhaps we need to be punished" Ros suggested.

Oh, for the love of the gods this was getting ridiculous, Octavian thought to himself. "I really would like you to…" he began, stopping mid sentenced when Ros swiped the other girl's backside sharply with the palm of her hand causing her to yelp.

Octavian blinked. That was… intriguing.

"Gods damn it" Octavian muttered to himself after a few moments of contemplation then closing the door. "Do you mind doing that again?" he requested, feeling quite thoroughly ashamed of himself for being just as much in thrall to his libido as Caesar had been.

Notes:

Note from the Author:

Preemptive, so-called 'Defensive Wars' were very much the Roman's modus operandi, seeking to excuse territorial expansion as being necessitated by concerns of national security. Octavian very much looks at the Stepstones and thinks 'It's free real estate' having the advantage that securing them as a possible invasion route (for Dothraki supported Targaryen interlopers) does make sense. Prince Daemon Targaryen once headed the Gold Cloaks and later conquered the Stepstones too, Octavian however plans to keep both for the long term.

If you're not familiar with Octavian as he is portrayed in HBO's Rome... well lets just say he preferred his love-life to be far from vanilla in the bed-chamber (fortunately for him his wife Livia was very much into it).

On the bright side Daisy faired far, far worse when she encountered the actual Joffrey in GoT episode 2x04 (for that matter Ros didn't do so well with Joffrey later either!).