Chapter 38 Probability

 Grandma Connie, who was also sitting on the sofa watching the game, looked more focused than George, and even forgot to drink the beer in her hand.

  "Kang is busy, I don't care what the process is, please God bless, let the Longhorns finally win by the score..." Grandma Connie prayed aloud.

  "Mom, have you started gambling again?" Mary, who was knitting a scarf on the side, asked in surprise.

  During this time, Grandma Connie saved some money because Mike would cook at home from time to time.

  Grandma Connie, who loves to play, naturally used the money to carry out some small entertainment activities.

  However, her luck recently seems not to be very good. Not only did he lose all his principal, he also owed some foreign debts.

  After hearing Mary's question, Grandma Connie was still insisting: "No, I didn't."

  However, this time, Grandma Connie bet on the Longhorns to win, entirely because of the name Longhorns, which sounded better. Pleasant to the ear.

  Grandma Connie is not good at this kind of pure betting on probability.

  Outside the sofa, little Sheldon also sat in front of the TV in order to appear gregarious. However, his attention remained on the science textbook in his hand.

  Hearing the heated discussion, he took the time to look up at the game on TV.

  At this point, the Longhorns' punter was already on the field, preparing to release his big kick.

  Seeing this, Little Sheldon thought for a moment and said: "From a statistical point of view, it is very unwise to always punt on the fourth offense..."

  In front of the TV, someone who was also concerned about the Longhorns Little George, like his father, also felt that the choice of punting at this time was very reasonable.

  Hearing Little Sheldon's different opinions, Little George turned around and choked: "Data? I think you are a big fool."

  In Little George's view, Little Sheldon, who had never been exposed to football, did not speak at all. right.

  However, Little Sheldon didn't care about George's contempt. He analyzed carefully: "The data shows that when a team is attacked by an opponent at its own five-yard line, the opponent has a 92% probability of scoring.

  But when this team chooses to punt deep in its own field, the opponent still has a chance to score. 77% probability of scoring.

  But if this team chooses to continue attacking, then they will have a 50% probability of getting another four offensive opportunities (drawing a foul).

  Therefore, the data shows that the Longhorns should not choose to give up. Kick."

  Little Sheldon's analysis was well-founded, and everyone on the sofa was quiet for a moment. Even Little George looked suspicious of life.

  Then, Grandma Connie looked at the smart and clever little Sheldon, smiled and leaned into her daughter's ear, whispering: "Mary, tell me quietly, who is his father."

  Genetically speaking, George and his son Both have average IQs, but little Sheldon's IQ is a bit too high.

  Hearing Grandma Connie's joke, Mary rolled her eyes and continued knitting her scarf.

  On the side, George, the coach of the team, reacted for a while and said, "Sheldon, I have been engaged in rugby all my life, and my experience tells me that what you said is wrong."

  "Really? Please wait..." Xiao Xie After being questioned, Newton raised his face and thought for a moment, then affirmed: "My calculation is correct. If the Longhorns lose the ball, it will only allow the opponent to score 6 more points..."

  As Little Shelton explanation, on TV the Longhorns, who were exchanging the ball due to a punt, were indeed scored 6 points by their opponents.

  Amidst the wailing, Grandma Connie came to Mary again: "Tell me honestly, is his biological father the dentist with the little glasses?"

  "Mom..." Mary glared at her mother speechlessly, indicating that she did not want to speak. .

  Coach George, who was slapped in the face, had no intention of analyzing the game for Mike in the following time.    

  After half an hour, the Longhorns were defeated by a huge score.

  Grandma Connie cursed loudly and was about to take out the Longhorns' betting receipt and tear it up, but she just looked at Mary's look and she immediately calmed down.

  Coach George on the side, since the Longhorns punted, he is no longer in the mood to watch the game.

  In his mind, he was still thinking about Little Sheldon's words. At the end of the game, George couldn't help but said: "Sheldon, although the Longhorns lost in the end, their choice to punt in the third quarter was absolutely right..."

  George also started at this time. Denounced Sheldon Jr., and he attributed all the Longhorns' failure to Sheldon Jr.

  Little Sheldon, who didn't want to have a meaningless argument with the two, turned his attention to Mike: "Mike, as the second smartest person in the family, please tell them whether my guess is correct."

  He looked at the other person as if it was natural. With such an appearance, Mike really wanted to tell little Sheldon that his IQ would one day surpass his.

  Then, facing everyone's gaze, Mike thought for a moment and said: "Sheldon's analysis is correct, but he did not take into account the strength of the players on the field.

  After the first two quarters of the game, it can be seen that the Longhorns The overall strength of the team is significantly lower than that of their opponents.

  In that offense in the third quarter, regardless of whether they chose to punt or not, the result was already doomed.

  The Longhorns had a 99.9% probability of failure throughout the game."

  "Thank you for your addition~ "Little Sheldon closed the book and continued: "Next time, I will take other factors into consideration."

  After saying that, Little Sheldon hugged the thick textbook and walked to his room.

  Seeing this, Grandma Connie also touched the spinach receipt in her pocket and followed.

  After Little Sheldon left for a while, George organized his words and said to Mike seriously: "I don't think probability can cover up the efforts of the players."

  "Of course, this is the charm of sports competition." Mike He nodded in agreement.

  He had previously guessed that the Longhorns' probability of failure was 99.9%, which was leaving some room.

  With Mike's approval, Coach George's face looked much better.

  Then, he said: "Next week, Sam will be back."

  Although Sam has an unpleasant personality, he is the old man of the football team after all and has followed the team for many games.

  If he cannot return to the team on time, Mike may still take the starting running back position.

  However, now that Sam has chosen this time to come back, out of human considerations, Coach George cannot directly remove him from the starting lineup.

  "I know." Mike immediately understood Coach George's difficulty. Looking at the opponent's apologetic look, he added: "I obey the team's arrangements."

  Seeing that Mike was so "sensible", Coach George struggled for a while and promised: "Don't worry, Mike. I promise that during the game, you There will be opportunities to play."

  The Melford Middle School football team is not very strong, and in the first round of elimination games, it is often at the first-round level.

  This is also the reason why Coach George did not dare to put Mike, who had no competition experience, immediately.

  Everything is for better results.

  (End of chapter)