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Investor who can see the future

There are great entrepreneurs, but there are no great investors. That’s the reality of this country.” One day, I began to see something in front of me. What can i do with this ability? From now on, we will reinvent the world financial system! .................................................................. DISCLAIMER THIS STORY BELONGS ENTIRELY TO THE ORIGINAL AUTHOR

Pandahashashin · 書籍·文学
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22 Chs

17

The situation moved differently than we expected.

In two days, rather than falling, Seosung Electronics' stock price actually rose by 8 percent. The reasons were complex.

The global stock market atmosphere was good, the exchange rate was favorable, and DRAM prices were rising.

The return on short selling was 8%, as it is inversely proportional to the rise in stock prices.

The problem was the put option.

As Seosung Electronics stock price and KOSPI rose, the possibility of exercising put options further decreased. Because of this, the value of options literally plummeted.

More than billions have already flown away.

When I looked at my account, which was all in blue, I was almost in a cold sweat. Taek-gyu didn't say anything either, but he looked embarrassed.

Even while the stock price was rising, L6 continued to explode, and more than 10 cases have been confirmed so far. Seosung Electronics said it would announce it's position regarding the fire incident tomorrow.

According to rumors, it seemed like the direction was toward battery replacement.

Complaints erupted on the Internet.

-To replace the battery, you would have to tear off the back plate.

-Then doesn't the waterproof function decrease? Are you going to take responsibility if the water leaks in?

-Does it make sense to disassemble a phone worth over 1 million won as soon as you buy it?

-I bought it at full price as soon as it was released, and it turned out to be a complete bargain.

-What kind of beta tester is Sobi?

-I will just refund L6 and never use Seosung Electronics products again.

Taekgyu asked me.

"They'll discontinue it when they announce it tomorrow, right?"

I nodded.

"I guess so."

If what Oracle showed was true, it would definitely be so.

* * *

A press conference was held at the Seosung Electronics Gangnam office building regarding the L6 fire incident.

Seosung Electronics is one of the world's leading global IT manufacturers. As such, the press conference hall was filled with not only domestic media outlets but also foreign reporters.

Cho Dong-jun, president of the IM division, appeared at the press conference.

He stood in front of the microphone with a heavy expression and opened his mouth.

"We are deeply grateful for the consistent support of our customers who love and care for Seosung Electronics products. Battery burnout has been reported in some L6 products released by Seosung Electronics. We are very sorry for any inconvenience and concern this may have caused."

As if they were stenographers, the reporters immediately wrote down President Cho Dong-jun's speech and post it online.

President Cho Dong-jun continued his presentation while looking around at dozens of cameras and over a hundred reporters.

"After analyzing the cause internally, it was confirmed that it was an issue with the battery cell itself. It is expected that the number of products equipped with the problematic battery will be one out of hundreds of thousands, but with consumer safety as our top priority, we have decided to temporarily suspend sales and replace all L6 units sold to date with new products. Product preparation is expected to take one week. We plan to exchange it for a new product as quickly as possible, and we will check for any problems and take action for customers who visit the service center even before the product is ready."

The reporters writing the article were surprised by the unexpected announcement.

Reporters rushed to raise their hands and ask questions.

"Are you saying you're going to recall the product itself rather than just replace the battery?"

"That's right."

"What was wrong with the battery cells?"

"There were minor errors in the manufacturing process of the battery cells delivered from Seosung SB. "The separator was damaged due to pressure in the upper right part, causing the cathode and anode to meet, and it is confirmed that the damage occurred in this area."

"What is the difference between the new product and the existing product?"

Questions poured in, but President Cho Dong-jun calmly answered them one by one.

"Due to supply issues, Seosung SB batteries were installed in the first launch countries, and BTL batteries were scheduled to be installed from the second launch countries. We will postpone the release schedule for the second release country and put all currently produced quantities into the recall. "I think the recalls will be carried out sequentially starting from a week later."

"The recall is being carried out because of the manufacturer's responsibility. What do you plan to do about consumer inconvenience?"

"We are currently discussing that with mobile carriers. "We will do our best to ensure sufficient compensation."

"How much do you expect to lose due to a recall?"

President Cho Dong-jun said with a slightly distressed expression.

"It's such a large amount that it's painful to tell you. However, we have made this decision because we believe consumer safety is our top priority."

* * *

While watching the news, Taek-gyu dropped the chicken he was eating.

"It's not a product discontinuation, it's a recall? "What happens like this?"

I was equally shocked.

I was embarrassed and lost for words.

"······."

If this happens, I'm completely out.

-Are you not just replacing the battery, but replacing the entire battery with a new product?

-Do they replace it without asking?

-Even if the screen is damaged, they say they will replace it as long as you bring the main body.

-I'll just use it until then and then change it.

-Seoseong Electronics is a complete success.

-It's different from NPL's after-sales service policy.

-NPhone doesn't explode in the first place. What are you talking about?

Articles posted on the Internet were generally welcoming Seosung Electronics' recall decision.

According to a survey conducted by a public opinion research agency, 95 percent of L6 users said they trust Seosung Electronics and will continue to use L6. Approximately 6 million units have been sold to date.

If all of these products were replaced with new products, a nominal loss of 6 trillion won would occur. However, this is based on sales amount, and the manufacturing cost is estimated to be around 300,000 won.

Therefore, the actual loss will be limited to about 2 trillion won.

There is a prediction that if the recovered phone is sold as a refurbished phone in an emerging country, the loss may not be very large.

Although a trillion-won loss occurred, the market's assessment was that it was not a level of concern because it was a one-time loss.

In fact, a report was released that said that Seosung Electronics will gain consumer trust through this incident, which will benefit the company in the long run.

The stock price, which had fallen due to the recall announcement, rebounded at the end of the day, falling only 1.5 percent.

next day.

Seosung Electronics announced a shareholder return policy, including quarterly dividends. The market cheered the stronger-than-expected announcement, and the stock price rose 3.4 percent.

* * *

The account was all blue.

Short selling losses were over -10 percent. This was a loss that could well be endured. However, put options were a different story.

The loss on the put option side was over ?30%. There was even one that recorded ?80 percent.

When combined with short selling, the loss was already close to half of the investment principal.

Taek-gyu, who checked his account balance, looked half lost.

A few days ago, when I bought put options, I never imagined that a situation like this would arise.

I checked the balance with my eyes wide open.

Of the 13 billion won invested in the purchase, 6 billion evaporated. Several hundred million of my money has already been lost, and several billion of Taekgyu's money has been lost.

It was decided to share the profits, but most of the losses had to be borne by Taekgyu. It's not like he can ask for a few billion back.

"······."

What should I do now?

* * *

I closed my eyes and lay down, but I couldn't sleep.

There was only one thought in my head.

Why is it a recall and not a discontinuation? What did I see wrong?

Could it be that I missed something?

What should I do now...?

The number 6 billion flashed before my eyes.

"6 billion..."

I have no idea how much it is.

That's enough money to spend a lifetime without working and playing around. Even if I spend 100 million won a year from now on, will I be able to use it all?

But I lost that money in just a few days.

Money that you haven't even touched is just recorded as a negative in your account.

Warren Bott, known as an investment genius, said that only two principles need to be followed when investing.

First, don't lose your principal.

Second, be sure to follow the first principle.

He stayed true to those two principles, but other investors did not. So he had great success, but other investors failed.

······

What kind of crazy person would lose their money just because they wanted to? You invest thinking you'll make money, but then you lose it.

Regardless of whether it is possible or impossible, the statement itself makes sense.

If you lose 50 percent of your principal, you need to make a 100 percent profit to recover. Therefore, once principal is lost, it is almost difficult to recover.

But we lost 6 billion from the start.

The bigger problem is that this is not the end.

The value of an option decreases over time. For options that can be exercised, the expected profit and option price become similar, but for options that cannot be exercised, the price converges to 0 won, regardless of how much it was purchased for.

If the option expiration date passes like this, billions of additional losses will occur.

What on earth should I do?

Should I withdraw the money now to avoid further losses?

If it ended like this, it was virtually impossible to recover the principal.

It felt as if fear was choking me.