AFRICA NEO-COLONIALISM: Chapt.6

STABILITY IN AFRICA

West Africa is making impressive progress in economic growth, democratization and regional cooperation. While the recent rise in violence and conflict as well as drug trafficking, piracy, extremism and other emerging threats have sparked concerns over its future development, efforts to prevent conflicts have also improved, contributing to overall stability. Development policy has a critical role to play in supporting stability to reduce conflict and violence over the long term. This requires interventions in many areas including support for lagging regions, strengthening local governance, improving land management, and spurring job creation among others.The nature of violence has changed significantly in West Africa since independence• The vast majority of armed conflicts in West Africa since independence havebeen intrastate conflicts, marked by 5 large-scale civil wars.• In the new millennium, the incidence of civil wars and large-scale conflicts dropped off dramatically, representing a watershed in the political stabilization of the region.• However, other forms of political violence and new threats have emerged such as election related violence, long standing ethno-national conflict, drug trafficking, maritime piracy, and extremism.• Other stresses include youth inclusion, migration, the rapid development of extractive industries, and land management. Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia and Sierra Leone offer lessons in resilience• Regional actors, especially the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) played a pivotal role in bringing an end to conflict• Rapid mobilization of foreign aid for reconstruction and development supported stability• Inclusion of civil society in peace deals and national dialogue enabled agreements to take hold• Strong post-conflict leadership helped chart the path to stability Development policies have a critical role to play in improving stability where conflict risks are high. Development aid needs to be concentrated in lagging regions and on addressing perceptions of inequity in access to opportunities. Focusing investments where conditions are best risks exacerbating tensions. Cross-border economic exchanges and collaboration may be useful.• Better land management and addressing grievances linked to land access is needed.• The boom in extractives discoveries requires greater attention to conflict risks, managing community and regional grievances as well as corruption.• Improvement in the management of migrants is an urgent priority.• Significant investments in basic and technical education are required to increase the size of the skilled labor force and improve livelihoods for youth.• Emerging security threats boost the imperative for security sector reform, along with improvement of justice and the rule of law.•

Greater support to ECOWAS and other regional institutions is also important.• Local governance needs to be strengthened, requiring greater citizen participation, improved social accountability, transparency and better services.

Support for decentralization is one approach. Africa will remain turbulent because it is poor and young, but also because it is growing and dynamic.

Development is disruptive but also presents huge opportunities.

The continent needs to plan accordingly. Levels of armed conflict in Africa rise and fall. Data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, the Global Terrorism Database and others indicate thatarmed conflict peaked in 1990/91 at the end of the Cold War, declined to 2005/6, remained relative stable to 2010/11 and then increased to 2015, although it peaked at lower levels than in 1990/91 before its most recent decline. Armed conflict has changed.

Today there are many more non-state actors involved in armed conflict in Africa -representing a greater fracturing of armed groupings. So it's not a matter of "government vs an armed group" but a "government vs many armed groups". Insurgents are often divided and sometimes even fighting amongst themselves.

This greater fragmentation complicates peacemaking. Terrorism has also increased, but depending on how one defines it, it has always been widely prevalent in Africa both as a tactic to secure decolonization as well as between and among competing armed groups. The big question for 2017 is: is violent political extremism going to move from the Middle East to Africa? Put another way, is it in Africa that Al Qaeda and the Islamic State will find solid footage as they are displaced from the Middle East? Anti government turbulence has also increased in recent years.

In Africa, this has led to disaffection and violence around elections that are often rigged rather than free and fair. Generally this is because governance in many African countries present a facade of democracy but don't yet reflect substantive democracy. Seven relationships lie behind patterns of violence on the continent, and provide insights into whether it can be managed better. Relationships explaining violence Poverty Internal armed conflict is much more prevalent in poor countries than in rich ones. This is not because poor people are violent but because poor states lack the ability to ensure law and order.

The impact of poverty is exacerbated by inequality, such as in South Africa. Updated forecasts using the International Futures forecasting system indicate that around 37% of Africans live in extreme poverty (roughly 460 million people). By 2030, 32% of Africans (forecast at 548 million) are likely to live in extreme poverty. So, while the portion is coming down (around 5% less), the absolute numbers will likely increase by around 90 million. It's therefore unlikely that Africa will meet the first of the Sustainable Development Goals on endings absolute poverty on a current growth path of roughly 4% GDP growth per annum.