Numbers Game: Hikari's Electoral Strategy

Sakumo nodded, absorbing the depth of Hikari's plan now fully, "Yes, I see your point. With the support of your Hyuga clan and my own involvement, rallying the other smaller shinobi clans in the village might indeed be very feasible. However, even with all of them on the boat, I'm still concerned about whether we would have enough numbers to secure a majority in the Jonin Council vote...",

"And it will be pretty hard to convince that many civilians to hypothetically vote for me, those recent rumors are one thing, but civilians are also traditionally very leaning toward the Hokage's faction...", He said, now reflecting only on the logistical challenges of their goal and expressing no other disapproval.

"I've done the numbers on this, and you're right Sakumo-san. Relying solely on our alliance, it's going to be a tough call to rally enough Jonin behind you. And trying to sway the civilian population is an uphill battle given the Hokage's influence and the perks he can offer too...",

"But there's one group you've overlooked, a group even more sidelined than the smaller clans—the Uchiha clan. They're arguably the most marginalized group in the village right now. If we manage to get their support for your bid as Jonin Commander, and in exchange, promise to them that you to use that position to support them more and work towards politically reintegrating them into the village's fabric further in the future, they might just be willing to join our cause as well this time around...", Hikari finally outlined his entire strategy this time.

Hikari had indeed roughly done the math required for their plan to succeed. He understood that the Jonin Council, which votes for the next Jonin Commander or the head of the Jonin Council, comprised approximately 500 members.

To be considered a candidate in the election, one needed at least 50 votes, and the nominee with the highest tally would ultimately secure the position.

Within this body, the Hyuga clan boasted 100 members in the Jonin Council alone, a significant but not decisive contingent. It was worth noting that this number represented only about half of the Hyuga's Jonin-level shinobi.

The others, despite holding Jonin ranks, were not part of the Jonin Council. This was primarily because they hadn't participated in missions contributing directly to the village's shinobi efforts, choosing instead to focus on being permanently stationed within the clan, this group is mainly from the Main Branch as well.

"But isn't your clan traditionally seen as rivals to the Uchiha? Would they really agree to collaborate with us on this?", Sakumo asked, voicing a concern that naturally arose from the historical tension between the Hyuga and Uchiha clans. 

"In reality, the rivalry between our clans isn't as intense as people make it out to be, Sakumo-san. There haven't been any wars or significant conflicts with the Uchiha since the village was founded, and even before then, certainly nothing on the scale of the Uchiha's past with the Senju. I believe the idea of our rivalry has been largely amplified by the Hokage's faction, who stand to gain the most from keeping our clans at odds with one another...",

"The other Elders of my clan have all also recognized this manipulation, and that's a major reason why they're open to aligning with the Uchiha now. Aside from the 'normal' competitive spirit stemming from our similar Kekkei Genkai and dojutsu, there aren't deep-seated grievances or conflicting interests between us...",

"The real hurdle instead might be the overall Uchiha's reputation for arrogance and their tendency to isolate themselves, but given the pressure they've faced from the Hokage's faction, I'm optimistic. I doubt the Uchiha Elders are blind to the benefits of our proposal, especially in light of their current situation.",

"They're likely keen on reintegrating more closely with the village, at this time, and aren't completely gone into the clan 'insulation' philosophy. With your involvement, Sakumo-san, and the support of other smaller clans, we have a strong case to make. I believe the Uchiha will see the wisdom in joining forces regarding this matter...", Hikari laid out his true analysis.

Sakumo listened intently, processing Hikari's perspective on the matter. After a moment of reflection, his expression softened, signaling a complete shift in his initial skepticism as well.

"You make a compelling argument overall, Hikari-kun. I must admit, I've been viewing the situation through the lens of old perceptions and rivalries just now...", Sakumo conceded, "If the Hyuga and Uchiha clans can also set aside past differences, real or exaggerated, for the greater good of the village, then perhaps there is hope for genuine change on a broad level.",

"Uniting our forces could also be the key to averting potential great future conflicts within the village, stemming from the injustices faced by the Uchiha and the smaller clans. Their growing grievances, if left unaddressed, could destabilize Konoha and 'explode' sometime in the future.",

"If we manage to politically address and resolve these issues, however, it would mark a significant achievement for the village's future stability and strength. Such a coalition could truly safeguard the village's long-term prosperity and harmony...", Sakumo reflected.

Then clearly suddenly reinvigorated by the conversation and the possibility of making a significant impact, Sakumo found himself unknowingly stepping away from the shadow of his recent troubles completely.

The rumors and negative thoughts that had once weighed heavily on him seemed less oppressive as he considered the potential for real change within the village he loved.

Therefore, a newfound enthusiasm evident in his demeanor and a spark of passion lighting up his face, Sakumo leaned into the discussion, genuinely curious and hopeful about their potential chances of success.

"So, are you sure that with the Uchiha also on board, we would have enough numbers...?", He inquired fully 'bought in', his voice carrying a mix of optimism and a desire for reassurance.

His question stemmed from a place of genuine curiosity. Politics had never been his main arena; he was a shinobi at heart, more accustomed to the straightforwardness of missions than the intricate dance of village politics. 

"The math works out in our favor, Sakumo-san. Honestly, I was as surprised as you might be when I went through the numbers with the help of the clan's intelligence. I bet the Hokage's faction would be quite caught off guard too.

"And that's why we must keep our strategy tightly under wraps until election day to prevent any unforeseen moves from their side. They've proven time and again how insidious they can be...", Hikari shared his voice carrying a tone of strategic caution.

"Let me lay out the numbers for you: the Uchiha clan contributes about 100 members to the Jonin Council, the same as my clan. If they're all on board and cast their votes, we'd only need around 50 more to secure a win.",

"The smaller clans, when their numbers are pooled together, have about 75 members in the Council. This means, that if we manage to get everyone to vote, we'll have more than enough to win the majority. It's all about unity and coordination at this point.", Hikari explained laying out the arithmetic of their plan with clarity.

Hikari's calculations were not made lightly. Initially, he had assumed that securing additional votes from civilian Jonin through covert incentives might be necessary to ensure victory in the election.

However, a thorough consultation with the Hyuga Patriarch and a review of the clan's intelligence resources led him to a surprising conclusion: such measures were unnecessary.

This revelation not only reinforced the strength of their strategy but also highlighted the intrinsic power and influence wielded by the Hyuga and Uchiha clans within the village.

The fact that both clans had about half of their Jonin force not even participating in the Jonin Council spoke volumes about their untapped potential.

It underscored a significant aspect of Konoha's shinobi hierarchy—despite the apparent dominance of the Hokage Faction, there existed formidable pockets of power, represented by the Hyuga and Uchiha, that could dramatically alter the village's political landscape when mobilized.

This insight was a revelation to Hikari, also emphasizing the parity between the Hyuga and Uchiha clans in terms of their capacity to influence village affairs if they joined together.

Meanwhile, Hikari also got further detailed intelligence assessment regarding the representation of other notable clans within Konoha's Jonin Council when researching this.

This comprehensive analysis provided him with a clearer picture of the political landscape and the relative power levels of various important shinobi clans within the village as well. 

The Yamanaka, Akimichi, and Nara clans, each had an average representation of about 25 members within the Jonin Council for example.

On the other hand, the Aburame, Inuzuka, Shimura, and Sarutobi clans had roughly half that number, with an average of around 12 members each in the Jonin Council. 

Hikari's analytical approach also extended even beyond just the Jonin Council's membership counts; he delved into the broader power dynamics and the distribution of elite-level shinobi across the village.

He now had some kind of statistical representation inside of his head of various power dynamics of the clans and village after getting that Elder-level intelligence estimation after becoming one himself recently. 

His investigation revealed a fascinating insight: combined, the Hyuga and Uchiha clans commanded an impressive 40% of the village's entire elite Jonin pool, with both of them having half of that share at the standalone levels.

This figure also included not only those Jonin within the Jonin Council but also those in specialized units like the Anbu, but that analysis also included the substantial Jonin force that Uchiha and Hyuga clans had but that constantly stayed within the clan compounds.

Hikari also found that alongside the Hyuga and Uchiha, considered the village's foremost clans, the Yamanaka, Akimichi, and Nara—also classified among the larger clans—, collectively held about 55% of the village's Jonin forces.

Adding the medium-sized clans to the mix, including the Sarutobi, Shimura, Inuzuka, and Aburame, this percentage rose to around 65%.

Furthermore, when considering the smaller clans like the Hatake, the total share of Jonin hailing from all shinobi clans astonishingly reached 80% of the village's entire Jonin force.

This analysis truly highlighted the significant advantage shinobi from established clans had over those born to civilian families.

In such an environment, only the most fortunate, talented, and intellectually gifted civilian shinobi could break through to claim a share of the remaining 20% of Jonin positions.

Reflecting on these newfound insights, Hikari again felt a profound sense of gratitude for his clan affiliation.

Otherwise, being reborn as a civilian for example, then it would truly have ended even before it began for him in his overall transmigration journey in this kind of low social mobility world.