AFRICA NEO-COLONIALISM: Chapt.7

AFRICA DEMOCRATIZATION

Democratization can trigger violence in the short to medium term, particularly around elections. Recent events in Kenya are an example. Where there is a large democratic deficit, as in North Africa before the Arab spring, tension builds up and can explode. And a democratic deficit- where levels of democracy are below what can be expected when compared to other countries at similar levels of income and education- often leads to instability. Instability is also fueled by the manipulation of elections and constitutions by heads of state to extend their stay in power. Examples include Burundi,the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) and Uganda.

The nature of the governing regime is another structural factor. Most stable countries are either full democracies or full autocracies. But most African countries have mixed regimes with some elements of democracy mixed with strong autocratic features. They present a façade of democracy but lack its substantive elements. Mixed regimes are inherently more unstable and prone to disruptions than either full democracies or full autocracies.

Population Structure

Population structure africa's population is young, with a median age of 19. By comparison, the median age is 41 in France (a relatively young country by European standards). So 22% of adult French arein the youth bulge of 15-29 years compared to 47% of Africans. Young countries tend to be more turbulent because young men are largely responsible for violence and crime. If young people lack jobs and rates of urbanization are high, social exclusion and instability follow.

Repeat Violence

Repeat history of violence is generally the best predictor of future violence. Countries such as Mali, Central African Republic and the DRC are trapped in cycles of violence. This is very difficult to break. It requires a huge effort and is very expensive, often requiring a large, multi-dimensional peace mission that only the UN can provide. But, scaling peacekeeping back rather than scaling it up is the order of the day at the UN.

Bad Neighborhood

A bad neighborhood Where a country is located can increase the risk of violence because borders are not controlled and rural areas not policed. Most conflict in Africa is supported from neighbouring countries. Violence spills over national borders and affects other countries while poorly trained and equipped law and order institutions generally cannot operate regionally.

Slow Growth and Rising Insecurity

Slow growth and rising inequality in Africa is quite unequal, so growth does not translate into poverty reduction.

In addition, the world is in a low growth environment after the 2007/8 global financial crisis, with average rates of growth significantly lower than before.

Africa needs to grow at average rates of 7% or more a year if it is to reduce poverty and create jobs, yet current long term forecasts are for rates significantly below that.

Opportunity Amid challenges

These seven related factors indicate that the notion that Africa can somehow "silence the guns by 2020", as advocated by the African Union as part of its Agenda 2063 is unrealistic. Violence will remain a characteristic of a number of African countries for many years to come and Africa should plan accordingly.

In the long term only rapid, inclusive economic growth combined with good governance can chip away at the structural drivers of violence. It is also clear that middle income countries are making progress in attracting foreign direct investment but that poor countries will remain aid dependent. Much more international and regional cooperation will be required as part of this process, including substantive and scaled up support for peacekeeping.