Children's Play

"Do you really think Shogo's cards are better than Kenji's?"

This question was echoed by a tall young man with frizzy black hair tucked under a baseball cap. He turned to his considerably shorter, chubby friend with raised eyebrows.

The chubby man gazed towards the table where there were two plays engaged in a card match. Shogo and Kenji.

"He does have good cards," the chubby man admitted, sounding uncertain. "And since most games don't have a winner in the first round and his is I would guess he would win right away."

Just then, the motel room door swung open.

Only the tall and chubby man turned to look, it wasn't rare to see people come and go from the gambling site.

There they saw a young man stood framed in the doorway, hands buried deep in his pockets as he slouched inward.

Finding nothing of immediate interest, the newcomer began a slow, purposeful stride further into the room.

"Who's that guy? Never seen him here before," the chubby observer mentioned, giving an obvious nod towards the young man.

"You just got here 15 minutes ago, right?" the tall man questioned. "I saw him earlier too, but not for long. It was odd though. He came in for maybe a game or two, around two or three minutes, and then left without playing."

As if drawn by their voices, the young man changed his path to weave directly towards the two. With hands still jammed into his pockets, he offered a kind looking smile, which automatically soothed the two men as the young man was very handsome.

"Hello," he said civilly, examining the two. "Do you have a pen or pencil and some paper?"

…

"Ah ha, I have four of the same suit!" Kenji, one of the two gamblers currently engaged in a match exclaimed. He sounded immensely pleased as he leaned back. "I win!"

However, his declaration of confidence was met with a slight chuckle from his opponent.

"Well I also have a full deck of three of the same rank," Shogo countered smoothly, a sly grin playing across his face. "Which means we go to war."

After the cards were collected and shuffled. The dealer, Ryota, delt out one singular card face-down to each player, sliding them across the wooden table. 

An anticipatory hush fell over the gathered viewers as they leaned in closer.

Kenji stared intensely at the new card he had received, it was a king. 

He felt a surge of hope and relief. Out of the remaining 13 cards ranging from a two to an ace, only 1 of those were better, that being the ace. Because there are only 4 suits, that means there were in total only 4 cards better than his, a small percentage out of the 52 cards in the deck.

"This is my lucky break," Kenji thought to himself eagerly, already envisioning the sweet taste of an assured victory.

He peered up from his card and stared across at Shogo, trying in vain to search for any potential tells or mental weak points from Shogo's usual poker face. 

Shogo's face and expression remained unchanged however, revealing nothing of the card that had been dealt to him.

"He seems so normal right now," Kenji pondered. "I wonder what card he has..."

Then, just as self-doubt began to creep into Kenji's mind, a subtle motion from across the table caught his eye. 

At first, he couldn't pinpoint exactly what had drawn his attention so keenly. But within a few tense seconds, he had realized something of immense importance.

"Okay, now that both players have their cards, we will allow each to either raise or fold before revealing their hand," Ryota droned, utterly disinterested. "The current match is 115,000 yen betted from Kenji to a matched bet of 115,000 yen from Shogo."

Shogo didn't even seem to consider the options. "No raise, keep my bet the same."

"Raise!" Kenji all but barked out, adrenaline surging through him. "Raise for 200,000 yen!"

A stunned hush fell over the spectators. Even Shogo went eerily, unsettlingly still, his expression frozen.

Then, ever so slowly, a triumphant smile began spreading across the corners of Kenji's mouth.

"You don't think I noticed it?" Kenji voiced arrogantly as he bored his gaze directly into Shogo's wide, startled eyes.

"I knew I felt something weird under the table, and I did indeed. What was it you ask? It was your legs were subconsciously bouncing quickly up and down against the ground."

Kenji was just getting started. Riding high on the thrill of his assured win, he made no effort to conceal the devilish laugh he had been hiding.

"You just slipped up, and it wasn't even your fault," he taunted, flashing Shogo a mocking smile. "I am a psychiatrist, so I know that when somebody is nervous or uncomfortable, sometimes they subconsciously exhibit little physical tells just like that. I was honestly just hoping you would fold since your card must be so low,"

The dealer then asked both players to reveal their cards, Kenji revealed his queen and expected Shogo's to be a three of four.

But instead of a middling value, the unexpected sight that greeted Kenji's eyes was an Ace of Spades.

Kenji's smile disappeared.

It was almost as if someone had leaned in close to whisper that his entire beloved family had just perished in a sudden accident.

"Oh you poor, delusional idiot," Shogo clucked, shaking his head in excessive displays of mock pity and disappointment. His voice was a dispassionate monotone, utterly devoid of any satisfaction at having turned the tables. "Looks like you fell for my bluff and head games instead of the other way around."

A heavy silence descended over the table as Shogo let Kenji marinate in the reality of his devastating loss. 

"You thought that my nervous leg movement was an unintentional tell about the quality of my hand, didn't you?" Shogp's mouth quirked upwards in a tiny, infuriating smirk. "That it was a subconscious giveaway that I was feeling insecure or unsure about the card I had been dealt? But the reality is, I simply used your own inflated ego and rushed assumptions about my 'tell' against you," Shogo purred in a tone of exaggerated reasonableness. 

"In your increasingly desperate state to swing the high stakes game back into your favor, you were grasping for even the most miniscule sign that 'luck', if you can even call it that, was finally on your side again."

Kenji was silent got up from his chair and started to walk away from the game. He had completely and utterly lost. Was there anyone who could defeat this monster?

"What breed of idiots are you guys?"

The sudden question immediately drew everyone's attention to its source. There stood Takashi, the young man that had entered before, hands shoved in his pockets and a slight smirk playing on his lips.

As Takashi strode towards the ongoing card game, he reached out and placed a hand on the shoulder of Kenji who had just been playing against Shogo. "This game seems like child's play," he remarked with an air of nonchalance. "How about I have a go?"

Without waiting for a response, Takashi pushed past Kenji and slid into the vacant chair directly across the table from Shogo. "How about you explain the rules to me huh?"

Shogo's eyes narrowed, irritation brewed just below the surface. 

"Psh, this guy doesn't even know the rules, how can he call it child's play? What a joke." Shogo complained inside his head. Thinking that Takashi's act was just to make Shogo mad, a failure of a mind game.

Despite his offense, Shogo managed to keep his composure, deciding to indulge the request.

 "Even though you insulted me without knowing the rules, I'll let it slide and explain since I'm a nice guy," he replied, flashing a brief grin on the last few words.

"The game is called Kingdom Card War," Shogo began, cracking his knuckle.. "There are two types of players, protectors and invaders. Invaders seek to, well, invade the kingdom while protectors aim to protect it."

Just then, Takashi produced a pen and paper from his pocket, seeming to prepare to take notes. This small action caused Shogo's eyebrow to twitch slightly, though he pressed onward.

"If you choose to be a protector, your goal is to obtain 4 cards of the same suit in your hand. Conversely, invaders need to get 3 cards of the same rank. It's also possible for both players to adopt either role."

Shogo continued on. "The game starts with each player receiving 2 cards from the dealer, that's Ryota over there."

Takashi's pen scratched the paper seemingly unfazed by Shogo's borderline patronizing tone.

"Each round, one of the three face-down cards on the table is flipped over, but before each one is turned around, players will be able to raise, call, or fold for a total of three rounds until all three cards in the middle will be flipped over. This will result in each player having 5 cards, the two they were given plus the three in the middle of the table. In the rare event that both players have a winning hand, we move to a war tiebreaker which has its own set of rules. If none of the players win or both win then the game ensues in war."

Shogo leveled Takashi with a pointed stare. "Well, now that I've explained everything, do you still think this is just a children's game?"

There was an overly confident edge to Shogo's voice as he issued the challenge. Rather than rising to take the bait, Takashi simply pushed his hand through his messy brown hair.

"I'll be the protector this round, but there is something I don't understand," Takashi responded calmy.

Shogo made an effort to keep his cool. "And what is that?"

The light of challenge flashed in Takashi's deep-set brown eyes.

"Oh come on, don't tell me nobody has ever asked you about why you always choose invader?" Takashi shook his head slowly. "You aren't being serious right?"

Irritation spread across Shogo's face, his eyes tightening.

"What does that have to do with anything?" Shogo shot back in a passive aggressive tone. "Or are you just trying to play some stupid mind game and work me up?"

Any trace of amusement vanished from Takashi's expression as he turned serious.

"No games, I'll explain it simply. But you don't have to follow along with the math if you're not smart enough since I will explain the results at the end. Let's start with getting 3 of the same rank, or as an invader. First, it has to be a certain rank for which you want to have 3 cards. There are 13 ranks in total. Next, you choose 3 cards of that rank out of the available ones. There are 4 cards of each rank, so we calculate this using combinations.

As Takashi continued on, Kusho entered the room, though no one paid him any mind. All attention was fixated on the increasingly tense showdown that was ensuing.

"Finally, you choose the remaining 2 cards from the remaining 49 cards since we've already used 3 cards of a specific rank. 

Takashi broke off for a second to write something down on his card of paper.

Looking back up, Takashi met Shogo's gaze firmly. "That means it results in a large equation in which I don't want to explain; however, the fraction is 119,328 over 6,497,400 which is around 2% chance of winnning without war based on that."

There were a few murmurs and sounds of shock rippling through the crowd as well.

"Now if we do the same type of math to the protector or 4 of the same suit..." Takashi stated flatly. "Then it results in a 4% chance of winning without war"

Kusho and the others in the crowd were amazed at Takashi's casual calculations. However, Shogo was not.

"So now tell me something Shogo," Takashi asked with a smile. "I know what you do, you move from place to place playing this game against others who don't know all the calculations, and yet, you always pick the invader, the one with the less chance of winning which you should have figured out by now. Are you really such a nice guy, or is there something else going on?"

Shogo let out a scoff. "Hah, what do you think that will expose me or something. I'll have you know I want to make sure that others have a fair chance against me. And what's also funny is that you almost had me believing you did all those probability calculations in your head from scratch."

As Shogo rose from his chair, a superior grin spread across his face, like a man who believed he had regained the upper hand. Reaching across the table, he made a sudden swipe to grab the piece of paper still resting before Takashi.

"You think I'm stupid enough to fall for your little trick?" Shogo sneered, eyes glinting with perceived victory. "Obviously you just wrote out the math problems while I was explaining the rules, pretending to take notes before solving it that way during our back-and-forth."

However, the arrogant expression disappeared from Shogo's face like a defective balloon as soon as he glanced down at the paper he had snatched. 

Rather than being covered in numbers and calculations, the sheet bore a simple sentence.

It read, "ego solus in fine, deus ipse sum et victor"