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Alternate Philippine History 1898 (Hiatus)

What would happen if history took a different course back in 1898 and the Filipino revolutionaries learned of the secret negotiation between the American and Spanish forces in Manila? How will the future of the Philippines change?

Erica_Arcadia · Krieg
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International Reactions

Initially, the Europeans were concerned about European casualties in the ongoing war in The Philippine Islands, but with the way things are going it would seem that the United States will soon relinquish its sovereignty over the islands.

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Germany sent a part of their Pacific fleet near Manila Bay, just outside Philippine territorial waters. News of America planning to withdraw made them interested in the islands in order to expand their territory in the Pacific.

They already held small islands in the southwestern pacific including a small part of New Guinea, half of Samoa and the Solomon Islands, the Bismarck Archipelago, the Mariana, Caroline and Marshall Islands. Adding the Philippines to their empire will allow them to demonstrate to the world their status as a global power

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News of a German fleet near Manila alarmed the British and French. They fear that Germany will take the islands once the United States withdraws. If the Germans are successful, they could use the islands to as a staging point to attack their holdings in the Far Far East should a war between them take place. And war is very possible with tensions rising between Germany and the Franco-Russian alliance.

Another cause for concern are reports of Moro tribesmen from the Sulu archipelago urging local leaders in British Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies to rise up against their colonizers. A defeat of a global power like the U.S could embolden some followers of the various resistance movements they have previously managed to pacify to seek out the help of the Filipino revolutionary forces.

Leaders of the United Kingdom, France, and the Netherlands met with one another in Paris to talk about what the Philippines should be if the Americans indeed decide to fully withdraw.

They laid down proposals with the aim of preserving stability, the status quo, and their influence in the region.

The first proposal laid out will divide the Philippines into four areas: France, Britain, and the Netherlands will each have an area to control. Manila will become a neutral territory guaranteed by all three empires.

The French will take Luzon from Batanes group of islands to the norther border of Manila.

The British will take Palawan and the rest of Luzon from the southern border of Manila to the Bicol region.

The Netherlands will take Mindanao, including the Sulu archipelago. The Dutch will be responsible with the pacification of the Moro tribes.

This way they could prevent Germany from taking the islands. They will also have complete control over Philippine waterways, make the Luzon strait a strategic chokepoint, and prevent any potential uprising.

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There is also a proposal to guarantee the independence of the Philippines. Both France and Britain will preserve the status quo by preventing any other country from attacking the Philippines unless they want to go to war against both empires.

Although this solution will require the Philippines give it's territorial waters in the South China Sea, Sulu Sea, and Celebes Sea to the British, and the Dutch to any conspirators from using the islands as a base for an uprising.

Many other proposals were laid on the table and most of them assumes that the Americans fully leave the islands.

One solution laid out that doesn't need to assume anything is to help the United States and send in troops to augment their forces although they doubt the Americans would allow any kind of European intervention. It is highly likely that the U.S will apply the Monroe Doctrine to the islands like they did with Hawaii a couple of decades back.

Their talks didn't get anywhere though as it is still uncertain what the Americans will do. Based on their constitution, they will need to enact a new law that will grant Philippine Independence after that will be negotiations with the Filipino revolutionaries.

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The Russians weren't really interested on what happens to the Philippines, but they are concerned at the growing influence of the Japanese Empire and their tense relationship with Germany.

Both Germany and Japan had navies in the region that can seriously threaten Vladivostok, the Russian Empire's main port in the Far East. Although they have one of the largest navy in the world, they are concerned that their Pacific fleet would certainly sink if Germany and Japan were to team up and they would certainly lose Vladivostok and its surrounding regions.

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The Japanese meanwhile were sent a diplomatic protest by the United States to stop shipment of any military hardware, and personnel to the Philippine Islands to which Japan denied that it had been doing that.

The Japanese government insisted that the shipments were donated by private citizens, and the personnel were only volunteers and their actions were not sanctioned by their government.

The Americans still insisted on the protest and warned Japan that they will take immediate action, including putting sanctions, if their demands aren't met. Unfortunately this had the effect of souring relations between the two countries.

Even though it is true that the Japanese government didn't sanction any involvement in the Philippine-American war, the confiscated Murata rifles and Japanese personnel seen among the Filipinos were enough evidence for the Americans to condemn Japan and push through with sanctions.

Due to this, they successfully forced Japan to oblige as the Japanese didn't want to ruin their trade relations with the United States.

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Sun Yat Sen has been counting on the Filipino revolutionaries to emerge victorious against the Americans so that newly founded Philippine Republic can help with his revolution against the Qing dynasty.

Leaked reports coming in from Hong Kong about American withdrawal from the Philippines sparked hope that the Filipinos might actually gain their independence, this after losing optimism at the initial stages of the war when the Filipinos were being pushed back inland.

He made plans in sending an envoy to the Philippines, after a ceasefire had been declared, to negotiate with Aguinaldo's government for support to initiate further uprisings in China.