Confirmation

<Title: How Do These Bear Cubs Have No Learning Ability?>

"Ah, they're finally going to war. I told you, even if these guys beg with snot, tears, and everything else running late, the Western big brothers won't forgive them. Thanks to that, I'm enjoying my oil long position nicely."

└Hello, I'm here on a pilgrimage.

└As expected of the Bear Hunter, though they talk casually, this person is the real deal. Never seen them wrong about Russia, for real.

└Are you Putin? National Intelligence Service, confess honestly!

"National Intelligence Service my foot. I'm someone who's already been investigated by them."

While comments flood in calling me the prophetic Bear Hunter or Putin de Nostradamus who saw the future, I can only sneer at such occult treatment.

It's Russia. That Russia. The stubborn bear-like country where the fundamentals never change even when political systems change, ideologies change, and regimes change.

People can change in 10 years, yet how does a country not change in 150 years?

Now even an individual like me has come to predict national directions.

<Title: I Hope There Aren't Any Fools Who Think They're the Protagonist of The Big Short?>

"I hope no one's caught protagonist syndrome and is trying to short in this crazy natural gas graph?

The graph hasn't even started yet. If you're confident you won't shake in a magnitude 9.0 natural gas earthquake, go ahead and try, if not, just wait exactly one year. It'll crash terribly and then there'll be another chance to go long.

How do I know? Ha, because it's Russia. They'll definitely refuse to admit they're struggling, hold out, then beg everyone to buy cheap, and get sulky and raise prices again."

└Wow, I was waiting for the short timing after reading your previous post, but good thing I didn't.

└Get out of my head while you're saying nice things. This is your last warning.

└Brother, gas prices tripled from last year's price just one month into the war, how can I resist? If I hit even one out of five shorts, I could turn my life around.

└(Author) Go ahead. If you want to blow your entire fortune on the Russian earthquake.

I admit it. They can say such things because they don't understand Russian-style warfare yet.

They probably think it'll be a short war because it's modern warfare, and with Ukraine receiving robust Western support, it feels like Russia is fighting the whole world.

"But in Russia, disregard for human life is just traditional culture."

I typed on my laptop to write today's blog post.

<Title: Want to Know How This War Will End?>

"As I've said repeatedly, Russia's end to the war will be the same this time too. They'll celebrate it as victory, but in reality, they'll be crying their eyes out behind closed doors because they're more hurt than anyone.

Huh? Why will it end like that?

Because that's the promise (nods)."

└Haha, already promised to end it that way haha.

└Who did they promise? Is there such a treaty?

└Promised with the Japanese Environment Minister.

└It's a Slavic tradition passed down through generations. A victory without gain. A victory only for themselves. A victory no one else acknowledges. Usually when great powers get high on war, this country scrapes the bottom of national power through war and steals food.

A blog full of mockery and sarcastic comments. Though I posted it myself, the content is genuinely serious despite such internet public opinion.

My rising corner of the mouth couldn't quite turn into a smile at the usual reactions.

"Sigh, I'm really frustrated. I'm really frustrated about all of this."

Not being proactive and getting dragged along, then flipping the table when they don't like it later.

Diplomacy is originally like trade, a process of giving and receiving. It's a process where mutual national interests are generated.

However, Russia either recklessly gives bad debt they can't collect or sometimes swallows something without opening their own pocket.

Diplomacy that neither protects nor gains anything.

That's Russian-style diplomacy that's continued since the 19th century.

If diplomacy is like this, what about internal affairs? While every country's history has periods of prosperity and decline, this country's prime was the Soviet era when people could barely make a living, which says it all.

"It wasn't even a golden age. When America was painting with paint, this was a country painting with the blood of its people."

It's never been a normal country.

Common sense has never existed.

This country just seems to operate in its own way.

Yet why hasn't Russia collapsed?

Ah, historically, Russia has come close to collapse many times. Right away during Napoleon's time, and during Nazi times they almost lost their capital.

Just one reason.

Weight class.

They've made it this far purely on weight class alone. It's not that they did anything particularly well. They don't have any particular strengths.

Vast territory and population. That is, weight class. This country has survived until now on weight class advantage.

And today in modern times, they're in the process of cutting their own flesh again.

Though I laugh and mock along with blog subscribers now, it wasn't like this from the beginning.

As a humanities graduate, I majored in history pursuing what I loved and dreamed of traveling the world to uncover the past.

But reality's walls were too high, and the world was a place that pursued the future rather than the past.

So I too decided to look at the future. Through the past.

Russian economy expert.

Stocks, bonds, futures, anything goes.

Because how Russia will react is so obvious to my eyes.

What? Oil prices are going crazy? Ah, first ignore it, then belatedly maximize production!

Oh, problems can't be solved through diplomacy? Then first move the military. Let's try to find international justification later.

Thoughtless opening led to serious foreign capital exploitation... but domestic capital is all rotten too.

Okay, let's overturn everything. Beat down domestic capital, create an atmosphere of fear to drive out foreign capital. Hit the restart button!

Fairness? Common sense? Those are like 160% voter turnout in that country. Since the result is already decided, the process is just a part to be fitted.

It's so obvious that I made money sitting in place today too. Liquidated oil long position profit rate 123%.

With the surprise war, Brent crude, Dubai crude, and WTI production volumes belatedly surge.

"I should slowly start taking new positions."

If they had carefully laid out the justification for war and given the impression that 'wow, both sides had no choice but war,' they wouldn't be cornered like this.

Even if they had turned it into a local conflict or partial war and made it seem like Ukraine voluntarily expanded the war, they wouldn't be surrounded on all sides like this.

No, from the beginning this war was just messed up.

The West ignoring the power hunger of a dictator president.

NATO's reckless eastward expansion and conflict with integration policies in former Soviet regions.

All of it was foreseeable.

And I made money using this... made it but.

"...Why can't I smile?"

The world told me to live future-oriented so I rode along with that too. So I produced results anyone would applaud but why aren't I happy?

"I really feel sorry for all of this."

I try to attribute my continued bad mood to feeling sorry about the current tragic situation.

"I used to be happy all day just reading one history book."

The past that remains only in records.

When digging into events that remain only in text and a few pictures or illustrations, it felt like I was right there in that era, in that event.

I think I approached history not just as records but as a means of indirect experience.

Back then I was like that. I just loved humanity's past unconditionally.

I sympathized with unfortunate results and empathized with sad histories.

But now I...

<Title: What is Others' Misfortune? My Money D< p>

The letters on the blog I was writing blink silently waiting to be completed.

Probably after this post goes up, I'll increase my wealth tremendously once again.

I wonder how others will react.

As always, they'll praise me and curse the subject of the post and everyone will wear smirks.

"...This feels strange."

Make money when war ends, make money when Russia rises again on weight class, and make money again when Russia completely recovers and faces checks again.

Money, money, thanks to Russia I could make an insane amount of that damn money in the future but why does it feel so unsettling.

Am I now feeling indirect guilt about others' misfortune like retail investors condemning institutional short selling?

Or am I unhappy that despite clearly seeing misfortune, all I can do is sit in front of a computer and make money?

"I'm just frustrated seeing such stupid behavior."

That's what it is. The sympathy of a normal person seeing a blind person obviously about to trip on a stone. That kind of light feeling.

<Title: What is Others' Misfortune? My Money D< p>

The still blinking letters. For some reason today even writing the title feels unpleasant for this posting.

After hitting the backspace key repeatedly to delete the entire title, I poured out thoughts that had been sleeping in a corner of my mind as if possessed.

<Title: If Only Past Russia Had Been a Little Different.>

"Though commenting now on where Russia's current situation went wrong would be meaningless criticism, I still want to ramble about it.

This country's blunders have been endless from long ago, despite having potential no less than the United States.

You might think 21st century Russia can't even take Ukraine because of the Soviet Union that built an empire empty inside obsessed with ideology, but I want to trace back further.

I dare say, this country went wrong from the Imperial era."

"...Hmm."

Having typed on the keyboard as if possessed by some grudge up to here, I paused at the sentences and writing becoming too long.

At this rate, it won't gain empathy or persuasion even with 57,000 characters rather than 5,700.

So after moving the mouse to select everything written on the page and deleting it, I typed on the keyboard again.

Unlike before, very short and light.

<Title: Russia Has Just Been Messing Up Non-Stop Since the 19th Century.>

"If you object, your bloodline is Slavic."

Hmm, it contains everything I wanted to say.

With a click, I upload it.

As always they'll tear it apart and laugh but I'm not confident I can summarize it more concisely than this.

Ding.

"Already got a comment."

└You think you would have been any different in that situation?

└(Author) Hi Ivan.

└I guarantee you wouldn't have been much different. No? Maybe even worse.

└(Author) Well noted, Tatar~

└You're finally crossing the line.

"What line crossing. Seems like you also know Russian history is a mess."

That's why they're getting heated while saying things like 'it couldn't be helped' to me.

Finally, I decided to give a sharp wrap-up.

└(Author) If it were me, it would have been different.

Unless I dropped right in the middle of a revolution and died immediately, it really would have been different.

As someone who has studied Russian history countless times, this much I can say with confidence.

Because as this commenter said, I've thought about 'what if it were me...' hundreds, thousands of times.

The guy who couldn't refute until the end was silent for a while. Just when I thought he ran away from the logical argument, a new reply appeared.

└Then let's confirm it.

Suddenly saying let's confirm, surely they're not trying to challenge me to a strategy simulation game? Besides that, how would they confirm?

"What confirmation-"

Just up to there. The words I was muttering to myself were cut off against my will.

And around when I felt the strength to make sound return to my mouth.

Before my words, a sound hits my ears.

"His Imperial Highness Tsesarevich Nikolai Alexandrovich Romanov, the legitimate heir and Crown Prince to His Imperial Majesty the Emperor!"

"We warmly welcome the distinguished guests. I am Prince Arisugawa Takehito, tasked with hospitality by command of His Majesty the Emperor."

Along with incomprehensible words, the other party slightly bows their head.

Though they seem older than me, since they bowed I also awkwardly responded by slightly bowing my head.

Then the Asian person in front of me becomes flustered.

But more than that, I became more flustered at the scenery that was just now entering my eyes.

"...Where is this?"

Waves crashing on the sea, a harbor wharf. A massive ship visible to the side.

And Asian people in uniforms with heads lowered in front of me.

Russian language. Japanese language. Japanese Imperial uniforms, and an iron ship. Finally, both sides' self-introductions remained clear in my ears. The words Crown Prince and Prince.

"Ah."

This is Crown Prince Nicholas II's Eastern journey.

The year, in my memory...