Chapter 327 Balkan Situation (1)
"A butterfly flapping its wings in the tropical rainforest of the Amazon Basin in South America can, after a couple of weeks, cause a tornado in the state of Texas, USA."
This is the famous theory proposed by American meteorologist Edward Lorenz, known as the "butterfly effect." The reason behind it is that the wing movement of a butterfly causes changes in the air system around it, generating a weak air current. This weak air current, in turn, leads to corresponding changes in the surrounding air or other systems, triggering a chain reaction that ultimately results in significant changes in other systems.
In human history, the butterfly effect is frequently observed, where a series of seemingly insignificant events are interconnected and often influence the course of history.
Take, for example, the Balkan Peninsula during World War II.
Since the Turkish invasion of Southeastern Europe across the Dardanelles in 1352, various ethnic groups in the Balkan Peninsula had been oppressed under the hooves of foreign invaders for five centuries. In 1821, the Greek people raised the banner of rebellion against the brutal rule of the Turks, gaining widespread sympathy and support from various European countries. After nine years of struggle, Greece finally achieved independence in 1830, opening a gap in Turkish rule over the Balkans. The independence of Greece served as an inspiration and demonstration, and by the 1870s, nationalist movements erupted across the entire Balkan region. With powerful support from external forces, the Ottoman Empire's rule over the Balkans crumbled rapidly. Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, and other nations gained independence, and Turkey lost all its territories on the European continent except for Istanbul and its nearby areas. With the collapse of Turkish rule in the Balkans, major European powers vied for influence in the region. The newly independent countries also purposefully chose a major power as their protector.
After the two Balkan Wars in 1912-1913, on the eve of World War I, the Balkan nations underwent a series of divisions and alliances. Like the major European powers at that time, they were divided into two major camps: Serbia and Greece leaned towards the Allied Powers, while Bulgaria tended towards the Central Powers. Interference from the great powers made the situation in the Balkan Peninsula complex and intricate. Any seemingly casual incident could trigger a major crisis. The Balkan Peninsula had become the geopolitical powder keg of Europe. Some far-sighted politicians keenly observed this, and German Chancellor Bismarck succinctly pointed out, "One day, the foolishness happening in the Balkans will drag the whole of Europe into a great war."
Sure enough, on June 28, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, was assassinated in the Bosnian capital of Sarajevo. The assassin was a group of Serbian radicals. This event exacerbated the already tense relations between Austria and Serbia. Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia and, on July 28, bombarded the Serbian capital, Belgrade, sparking the war. Serbia had the support of Russia, and Germany endorsed Austria-Hungary. Subsequently, Britain and France also became involved. What happened next is well known, just as Bismarck predicted before his death: "Foolishness triggered a great war." The First World War, known at the time as the "war to end all wars," erupted in full force, dragging almost the entire European continent into a four-year-long conflict.
Twenty years later, in September 1939, when Germany invaded Poland and Britain and France declared war on Germany, the Second World War erupted. Italy wisely declared neutrality, choosing to watch the outcome.
In June 1940, Germany's lightning strike in Western Europe achieved tremendous success. The German army defeated the military power of France in just six weeks, forcing the surrender of the Netherlands and Belgium, and pushing back nearly 300,000 British Expeditionary Forces to the British Isles. At this critical moment, Italy finally joined the war. Mussolini envied the great success of the German army in Western Europe. Determined to revive the glory of ancient Rome, he ordered the Italian General Staff to plan the invasion of Greece.
On October 28, 1940, nearly 160,000 Italian troops crossed the Albanian-Greek border (Italy had annexed Albania in 1939) and invaded Greece. At the beginning of the war, people widely believed that Greece, with only 7 million people, was not a match for Italy, which had a population of 45 million. However, to everyone's surprise, the Greek army, commanded by General Papagos, fought exceptionally bravely. Similar to their Spartan ancestors who resisted the Persian invasion more than two thousand years ago, they reenacted the glory of the Battle of Thermopylae in 480 B.C. By the end of November, not only were the Italian forces driven out of Greece, but there was even a risk of losing Albania. However, due to the onset of winter, with temperatures plummeting to minus 20 degrees Celsius, the Greek army, lacking supplies, was forced to halt the offensive, saving the Italian forces from collapse.
The disastrous defeat of Italy in Greece greatly infuriated the Little Moustache, not because he sympathized with Italy's situation or understood Italy's territorial ambitions, but because Mussolini's reckless invasion of Greece disrupted the intricate diplomatic balance in the Balkan region. It was like opening Pandora's Box, triggering a series of butterfly effects: due to the Italian invasion, Greece was forced to seek help from its traditional ally, Britain. The Royal Air Force of Britain first sent a few squadrons of fighters and bombers to Greece to boost its morale. Although the number was not large, this move alerted Germany. Germany, lacking domestic oil production, relied heavily on the Ploiești oil fields in Romania as its most important overseas source of oil. The Ploiești oil fields happened to be within the operational radius of the British RAF stationed in Greece, causing Germany great concern about the safety of the oil fields.
After dispatching the air force, the British forces stationed in North Africa continuously moved from Egypt to Greece. This further made the Germans realize that they must deal with this "annoying ghost" in Greece sooner rather than later, as the consequences could be endless and could affect the security of the Axis Powers' southeastern flank.
On April 6, 1941, the German-Italian-Hungarian coalition invaded Yugoslavia from different directions. By April 17, the entire territory of Yugoslavia had fallen, and its lands were divided and occupied by the coalition. Germany easily subdued Yugoslavia in just 11 days, with a cost of only 558 casualties, fully demonstrating the power of the German blitzkrieg.
After dealing with Yugoslavia, the German forces, under the command of Field Marshal List, continued their southward advance. The formidable strength of the German armed forces far surpassed that of Italy. The British and Greek Allied forces were no match for the well-trained German army. On April 24, Athens fell to the German forces. By early May, Axis forces occupied mainland Greece, and the remnants of the British forces were forced to withdraw through the Mediterranean to Egypt. This marked the third time in just one year that British forces were expelled from the European continent, following Norway and France. It was a fatal blow to the British, enough to embarrass them. However, compared to the two subsequent defeats the British forces would face in Tobruk and Singapore a year later, this was relatively minor.
Throughout the entire Second World War, the performance of the British Army was lackluster compared to the Royal Navy and Air Force. Whether fighting against the German or Japanese forces, they had few notable achievements. Shortly after the occupation of mainland Greece, elite German paratroopers carried out the largest and most famous airborne operation of the war on the island of Crete. Similar to the German airborne occupation of the Eben-Emael fortress in Belgium a year earlier, the valiant German paratroopers routed the British forces on the island and eventually captured the largest Greek island, Crete, on May 25. With this, the Axis Powers fully controlled the entire Balkan Peninsula.
The victory of the German forces in the Balkans was astonishing. It was a classic and brilliant blitzkrieg, showcasing the efficiency of the German war machine. However, the cost the Germans paid for this was the postponement of Operation Barbarossa from the originally planned date of May 15 to June 22. From the perspective of future historical developments, this more than one-month delay would prove to be fatal.