Chapter 392
Chapter 392: Strategic Security
The Fetter River, a right-bank tributary of the Fal River, plays a crucial role in the northern tributary system of the Orange River in South Africa. Downstream, it flows into the Bruhof Reservoir. Upstream, it runs past the significant city of Winburg in the Transvaal Republic. This river also forms the border between the Transvaal Republic and the Orange Free State.
Winburg is strategically positioned in the middle of the Fetter River's upper reaches, forming a Y-shape. It was one of the Boer republics established by the old Pretorius. In 1852, it united with the Boer Republic of Lydenburg and other Boer republics, eventually becoming part of the Transvaal Republic. Winburg stands as the southernmost city in the Transvaal Republic.
The 513th East African Division captured Winburg a few days ago. After losing Pretoria, the Transvaal Republic's command structure spiraled into chaos, facilitating East Africa's smooth occupation of the Transvaal Republic.
"With the capture of Winburg, we will effectively control the area north of the Fetter River in East Africa. South of the Fetter River lies the Orange Free State. Per the Crown Prince's orders, after securing Winburg, we will establish control over the territory centered around Winburg. Unless the Orange Free State initiates hostilities, the East African army will not engage in combat south of the Fetter River," explained Kerry Rhodes, commander of the 513th Division, while pointing at the map.
With the occupation of Winburg, East Africa's mission against the Transvaal Republic was essentially fulfilled. The primary objective was to let the gold mines along the Fal River's main tributaries decay underground. Once East Africa controlled the Fetter River, nearly 99% of the gold-rich region would fall under East African control. By prohibiting any development between the north of the Fetter River and the south of Pretoria, including Johannesburg from previous history, East Africa could ensure these gold mines would remain undiscovered.
The justification for restricting development was readily available, as this region, situated deep within the South African plateau, suffered from aridity due to Lesotho blocking moisture from the Indian Ocean. The land was barren, and the ecological environment was fragile.
East Africa could cite ecological preservation as the reason to prevent any individuals or entities from exploiting this area. Ernst's plan was to establish a natural ecological reserve akin to the Galenseti Prairie.
East Africa didn't hold significant interest in the Orange Free State across the river. The Kingdom of East Africa declared war based on the premise that the Transvaal Republic supported the Debele rebellion. However, the Transvaal Republic and the Orange Free State were distinct nations, lacking a pretext for war against the latter.
While the Orange Free State and the Transvaal Republic shared similarities, their interests did not entirely align. Pretorius the Younger had tried to advocate for the merger of the two states, but the Orange Free State had declined.
Ernst believed it might be possible to win over the Orange Free State. He held no animosity towards the Boer states but had conflicts with the Transvaal Republic regarding interests and national security.
On the other hand, the Kingdom of East Africa required the Orange Free State to act as a buffer between East Africa and the British Cape Colony. The British had real interests in the Orange Free State, especially in the wake of the discovery and development of the Kimberley Diamond Mine. They would not permit East Africa to annex the Orange Free State.
Ernst foresaw that conflict between the British and the Boers was inevitable, much like it had been in history. After all, the Orange Free State's only valuable diamond mine was under British control, and the British were unlikely to expel the Boers from the Orange Free State as they had done in East Africa.
Ultimately, East Africa could annex the Transvaal Republic to secure its strategic security. With the gold mining area in its possession, the UK's 2C plan would be unviable, as well as the French 2S plan. East Africa would become a formidable player in the region.
Dealing with a centralized emerging country like the East African Kingdom required substantial effort from the British and French forces, unless they were willing to exert the same energy as they did when dealing with other European countries. The East African Kingdom was not without allies; it could align with the second German brother (Germany and Austria) to balance the British and French, potentially by providing the Hechingen royal family with added benefits.
Moreover, unless a world war broke out, Britain and France were unlikely to cooperate closely. Their relationship in Africa could even deteriorate. The presence of the East African Kingdom meant that there were few unclaimed territories left for development in East and South Africa. The only viable option was West Africa.
As long as the East African Kingdom developed steadily and grew stronger, all countries would eventually vie for control in West Africa after 1880. Competitive pressure in West Africa would intensify dramatically. Considering that Britain and France already held colonies there, their conquest of West Africa was a logical progression. At the same time, other regions like South America, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East would also face more intense colonial pressures in the future.
(End of this chapter)