Saitama would win. He has shown incredible strength with just one punch. His power seems limitless, and in a fanfiction scenario, his simplicity and raw power would likely overpower Jiren's more complex abilities.
One possible plot twist could be that Jiren discovers a way to nullify Saitama's strength. Maybe he finds some sort of energy - draining technique that weakens Saitama over time. Another could be that Saitama holds back for some reason, like he wants to see the full extent of Jiren's power, and in doing so, he gets into a real struggle.
In this fanfiction, Goku vs Jiren is likely to be an epic battle. Goku's power with the Universe's Watch might bring new and unexpected abilities. Jiren, on the other hand, is an extremely powerful opponent. The fight could involve intense energy blasts, high - speed combat, and strategic maneuvers. It might also explore the growth of Goku's character and his newfound power in relation to Jiren's unwavering strength.