The rebound in the bond market is difficult to sustain
Judging from the recent performance of the bond market, there are many factors that affect whether the bond market rebound can continue. In terms of interest rate bonds, the trend fluctuated greatly. For example, on October 19,2024, the good news that the five major banks cut the deposit listing interest rate by 25 basis points excited the bond market, but then the third quarter's annual rate of gross domestic product was 4.6%.(4.5% higher than expected) and September's total retail sales of consumer goods and industrial added value above designated size were much higher than expected, which brought negative effects to the bond market, causing the yield of 10-year treasury bonds to draw a "V" character, first rising and then falling back. From the perspective of credit bonds, the performance of different periods varied. For example, on the morning of October 14, the credit bond rose well, led by bank bonds; on October 15, the credit bond kept rising during the rebound of the bond market, but in different types of credit bonds such as industrial bonds and urban investment bonds, most of them rose sharply while there were also local sharp falls. In terms of funds, it was generally stable. Although there was a net withdrawal operation in the open market, there was not much change in the PDR007's interest rate. The sentiment of funds was still quite good. During the period from October 14 to 20,2024, the central bank's net investment in the open market in the first half of the week was relatively loose. In the second half of the week, with the maturity of MLM and treasury cash deposit, the open market turned into a small net withdrawal, but the interest rate of funds remained relatively stable. On the whole, the current bond market is facing the complex influence of many factors. The positive and negative factors are intertwined. It is not easy to judge that the bond market rebound is difficult to sustain. For example, the implementation of policies, the consideration of external capital flows on fundamentals and profit expectations, as well as the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds, all needed further observation and analysis. At present, it could not be confirmed that the rebound of the bond market was difficult to sustain. Read more exciting novels for free
The bond market rebound is expected to continue
Judging from the recent performance of the bond market, the bond market has a certain rebound and there is the possibility of continuing the rebound. From a fundamental point of view, the current domestic market demand still needs to be boosted. The month-on-month decline in the Producer Index has increased again. Both the Purchasing Index and the inflation data show that the current domestic economic recovery still lacks strong support. This situation is a favorable factor for the bond market. From a policy perspective, monetary policy remained loose, and the effect of the policy at the beginning of the year was still showing. Moreover, the central bank said that the average legal deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was about 7%, and there was still room for downward adjustment, which was conducive to the continuation of the bond market rebound. However, the capital situation sometimes also has an impact on the bond market. For example, since September, when the capital is tight, the bond market is still rising because of more emphasis on fundamentals and other comprehensive factors, but if the capital is too tight, it may also bring some uncertainty. On the whole, although there were some uncertainties, based on the current fundamentals and policy situation, there was hope for the bond market to continue. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>
The market is about to rebound
Different analyses had different views on whether the market was about to rebound. Some people believed that the market had a rebound trend. For example, in the analysis on October 24th, it was mentioned that the market had a correction on that day. From the turnover, the trading volume was low, and the market sentiment might be on the verge of overselling. Moreover, the market had experienced enough adjustment, and the accumulated rebound strength was accumulating. Therefore, it was predicted that the market would usher in a rebound. However, there were also opinions that there was uncertainty. For example, from the technical indicators, the state of the dead cross of the MCD was not alleviated, the red column shrank after the market rose, the high nine and high seven appeared in 90 minutes and 120 minutes, and the high eight appeared in the Shen Cheng Index. All of these suggested that short-term high points might appear. If it fell below five to ten antennae on Thursday, then the B wave rebound might end and the C wave would fall. Therefore, it was impossible to judge for sure that the market was about to rebound. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>
Tomorrow, the market will rebound and the new market will rise.
He said that the market would rebound tomorrow and start a new market. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>
The market will rebound and close the sun
Different stock commentators had different opinions. Some stock commentators believed that with the reduction of quantity and energy, the fluctuation of market sentiment increased, suggesting to do a good job of risk control; some stock commentators believed that the market was in a turbulent upward trend, so there was no need to worry too much about the index and should focus on short-term sentiment; some stock commentators believed that if the market could stand above 3300 points, the upper space would continue to open and continue to look for more. Previously, there was also a view that after the market adjustment, due to oversold and market rules and other factors, the market would usher in a rebound and close the red, but the market trend was complex and changeable, affected by many factors such as trading volume, plate rotation, policy, etc., so it was impossible to accurately judge that the market would rebound and close the red. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>
Will the rebound market still rise?
The trend of the market was affected by a variety of factors, and there was the possibility of continuing to rise and fall. From a technical point of view, if the market can significantly increase its volume and break through key pressure levels (such as 3331 points, 3380 points, etc.), it is possible to continue the rebound trend. However, if the rebound was limitless and could not effectively break through the pressure level, they might face an adjustment. For example, in the previous rebound process, the lack of energy led to the failure to effectively break through the key pressure level, and then there was a trend of stepping back. From the perspective of the sector, the main capital of different sectors has a large difference. The capital outflows of some sectors (such as the large outflows of solar power equipment) may have a certain impact on the market, while sectors such as stocks can play a role in supporting the market at critical times. If the various sectors can coordinate and cooperate, the main funds will flow back to the relevant sectors, and the market may continue to rise; on the contrary, if the sector pull is serious and the funds continue to flow out, the market will face pressure to rise. At present, the market was in the second wave adjustment of the B wave rebound market. Its own rhythm was slow, and the market risk was intensifying near the end of the month. The main funds basically maintained a net outflows throughout the month except for specific dates, which also formed a certain constraint on the continued rise of the market. Therefore, it was not easy to determine whether the market would continue to rise. It was necessary to continue to pay attention to the changes in the above-mentioned factors. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>
Corrugated cardboard may rebound in the market
Different periods had different predictions for the future of the cardboard box. From March 15 to 21, 2024, the market demand was weak, and downstream orders were limited. It was expected that the market would continue to show a downward trend; from May 17 to 23, 2024, the wavy cardboard market was expected to fluctuate next week; on October 26, 2024, there was no direct indication that the market would rebound. For example, in the first half of 2020, the trend of the wavy paper was in the shape of an "N", and the boxboard paper also showed an "N" shape trend. Moreover, the demand for paper gradually entered the peak season from October to November 2020. As the transaction heated up, the price of paper had an upward trend. Based on the available information alone, it was not certain that the market for cardboard would definitely rebound. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>
How high can the market rebound
From the technical analysis point of view, the market forecast rebound height pressure position at 3488 points, rebound up to make up the gap position, is the high point of this round of rebound; There are also opinions that the market rebound height may be 3406 points, but there may be fluctuations in the middle; There are also opinions that if you can stand above 3300 points, the space above will continue to open, but it is not clear how high it can go; There are also predictions that the market will rebound to 3331.08 points as the highest point; There was a similar situation before. It was unlikely that the market would rise to 3600 points, and the upper rail was considered to be at the top. In short, there were many different predictions about the height of the market's rebound. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>
A share market is expected to rebound first
Recently, there are some positive factors in the A-share market that indicate that it is expected to take the lead in rebounding. From the perspective of policies, since September 24, a series of policy tools including interest rate cuts, reduction of reserve requirements, reduction of down payment for second homes, reduction of stock mortgage interest rates, etc. were introduced. On September 26, the Politburo meeting deployed economic work and emphasized the need to "effectively implement stock policies, strengthen the introduction of increment policies, and ensure necessary financial expenditure". On October 12, the financial conference of the State Administration of New China also actively adjusted the idea of debt reduction. With the implementation of these policies, While helping the real economy, it was expected to boost the fundamentals of A shares and let the A share market go further. From the perspective of market capital and sentiment, under the "924" series of policies, the capital returned to the stock market substantially, and the rapid recovery of market sentiment contributed to this round of market. Although there is a period of overheating at present, from historical experience, the first wave of each market often comes from the rebound of overfall. The industry sector that fell more before became the leading pioneer in this round of market, such as beauty care, food and beverage, etc. From the perspective of cross-border capital flows, the Director of the International Balance of payments Department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said that from the perspective of the capital account, foreign direct investment has improved recently, and foreign investment under the security investment to buy bonds and stocks in China is generally good. It is confidently expected that in the next few months and longer this year, China's cross-border capital flows will maintain a stable and good trend, which also has a positive impact on the rebound of the A-share market. However, the long-term rise of the stock market ultimately needed an economic foundation, and the continuation of the subsequent market still needed to wait for further verification of the fundamentals. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>
What are the reasons for the overall rebound in the market?
The reasons for the overall rebound in the market may be the following: 1. ** In terms of macro policies **: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy has brought new mobility to the global economy. The economic policies of China and the United States have undergone a counter-Cyclical shift, which has changed market expectations and investors are full of expectations for the future. 2. ** Capital Flow **: - The influx of capital from the north has a driving effect on the market. For example, on February 6,2024, when the capital flow to the north was 12.605 billion yuan and the domestic capital flow was 21.634 billion yuan, the three major indicators rebounded to a new high; On December 28,2023, the net purchase of capital from the north reached a new high since July 28, and the three major indicators of A shares collectively rebounded greatly. - If there is a land adjustment in the market, it may mean that there are funds to re-enter the market to push the market to rebound. For example, if the land adjustment time is short in the first stage of the bull market, it indicates that the bull market is strong and may push the market to rebound. 3. ** Sector pull **: The collective surge of some sectors can lead to a rebound in the market. For example, on December 28,2023, the collective surge of the new energy sector led to a rebound in the A-share market. 4. ** The market's own adjustment of demand **: The market's sharp adjustment in the early stage released a lot of risk, and there may be a rebound after the selling power is weakened. For example, the rebound on February 6,2024 was due to the risk released by the market's sharp adjustment a few days ago. 5. ** Exchange rate **: The assistance of the RMB exchange rate has an impact on the market. For example, on December 28,2023, the rise of the RMB exchange rate helped the three major A-share index to rebound collectively. 6. ** In terms of interest rate expectations **: When the market has expectations for the reduction of interest rates, it may push the market to rebound. For example, on December 28,2023, the market's expectation for the reduction of interest rates in 2024 was one of the reasons for the collective rebound of the three major A-share index on that day. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>
What is the law of the stock market rebound?
The law of stock market rebound included the following aspects: * * 1. Laws related to capital ** 1. * * Bottom-hunting funds to promote ** - When the stock market fell in the early stages, some investors thought that the stock price was low and that the bottom-up funds would pour in. For example, when the Tokyo stock market rebounded, the previous day's plunge created an opportunity for short-term buying operations, and the influx of bottom-hunting funds pushed the stock market up. 2. * * Inflow of funds from institutions and individual investors ** - The increase in the participation of institutions and the participation of individual investors will boost the stock market rebound. In the process of China's stock market's record rebound, there was a significant increase in the participation of institutions, and individual investors began to enter the market enthusiastically. The influx of large amounts of funds lifted the stock market out of the doldrums. * * 2. Laws of policy and the influence of macro economy ** 1. * * Stimulation policy ** - The government's policy measures, such as tax cuts and interest rate cuts, could stabilize the market, activate economic vitality, boost market confidence, and thus encourage funds to return to the stock market, triggering a rebound. 2. * * Impact of the macro economic situation ** - When the macro economic data is good or there is good news, it will push the market to break through. For example, the company's financial report was eye-catching, and the country's macro economic data was good. It could attract the attention of investors, increase their enthusiasm for participation, and push the stock market to rebound. * * 3. The Law of Industry and Enterprise Performance ** 1. * * Led by the industry ** - The good performance of certain industries has contributed to the stock market's rebound. For example, technology stocks and consumer stocks led the rise in a certain round of rebound. When the performance of their leading companies exceeded expectations, investors would see hope, attract capital flows, and then drive the overall rebound of the stock market. 2. * * Enterprise profit impact ** - Enterprise earnings were an important factor affecting the stock market. A company with good earnings could enhance investor confidence and push up the stock price, thus pushing the stock market to rebound to a certain extent. * * 4. Law of technical indicators ** - The stock market rebound was often accompanied by improvements in technical indicators, such as the change in the K-line shape and the amplification of energy. These technical signals could guide investors and increase the market's upward momentum. * * 5. The Law of Market Sentiment ** - As the stock market began to rebound, investor confidence gradually recovered. The pessimistic sentiment was replaced by optimism, and the market atmosphere became positive. The spread of this sentiment would accelerate the flow of funds and further promote the stock market's rebound. <a href="/?from=ask_words" style="color:red" target="_blank">Read more exciting novels for free</a>