There's also a possibility that it's related to a personal enemy of Derek's that the team doesn't know about. It could be someone from his past, like an old acquaintance who has a grudge against him for something that happened long ago. This person might have been waiting for the right moment to strike, and the shooting was their way of getting back at Derek.
Perhaps it's an insider within the law enforcement or criminal justice system who has a vendetta against the BAU. Maybe they disagreed with the way Derek and his team operate and decided to take matters into their own hands. It could be someone who feels that the BAU has too much power and is trying to send a message.
One possible storyline could be Derek's struggle to recover both physically and mentally after being shot. His team members might be deeply affected and rally around him, with each dealing with the trauma in their own ways. For example, Reid could struggle with guilt for not being able to prevent it, while Garcia would be constantly by Derek's side, using her tech skills to help find the shooter.
It could be an ex - boyfriend who was jealous and wanted revenge. Maybe he couldn't handle the break - up and decided to harm her in this extreme way.
A possible suspect could be an informant who has turned on Tony. Maybe the informant was promised a better deal by another party if they got rid of Tony. Also, it could be a new criminal on the scene who sees Tony as a threat. This new criminal might be trying to establish their power and reputation, and taking out a well - known NCIS agent like Tony would be a big statement. Another suspect could be a person with a grudge against the NCIS in general, and Tony just happens to be an easy target.
Well, it could be a rival of Ciel's in business or in a social setting. Maybe someone who is jealous of his status or wealth and sees shooting him as a way to get ahead.
A rival law enforcement agency member could be a suspect. Maybe they see Deeks as a threat to their own investigations or operations and decide to take him out. It could be a power play within the world of law enforcement.
It could be an old enemy from Beckett's past. Maybe someone they put in jail a long time ago, who has now been released and is seeking revenge.
It could be a random act of violence by a criminal who was in the wrong place at the wrong time. There are some bad elements in the area where Blaine was and they just targeted him without any specific reason other than opportunity.
One common theme is the team's unity. When Reid gets shot, the team comes together, showing their strong bond. They support each other and are determined to find out who hurt Reid.
One possible plotline could be that the team goes into a full - blown investigation to find out who shot Garcia. They might suspect it's a criminal they previously put away seeking revenge. Her friends on the team would be devastated and work tirelessly to get justice for her. Meanwhile, Garcia could be in a coma, and the team would be at her bedside, reminiscing about their times together and how much she means to them.
It could be an ex - lover. Maybe they had a bitter break - up and the ex - lover was filled with jealousy or revenge. Another suspect could be a business rival if Amy was involved in some sort of cut - throat business environment.