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What would happen if history took a different course back in 1898 and the Filipino revolutionaries learned of the secret negotiation between the American and Spanish forces in Manila? How will the future of the Philippines change?
August, 1898
Reports came to General Emilio Aguinaldo and General Antonio Luna that the Spanish Governor Fermín Jáudenes made a suggestion to Commodore George Dewey that they will surrender to his forces after a mock battle.
This mock battle aimed to deceive the Filipino forces and allow the Americans to take control of Manila while the Spanish retreated. They surmised that after a peace treaty with Spain, the United States will refuse to recognize the country's independence and take control of the islands for themselves.
Emilio Aguinaldo met with his cabinet and generals on what they should do.
Apolinario Mabini suggested for them to wait for peace treaty to end while bolstering the nation's defenses in case the Americans decide to annex the nation. In addition, they will send representatives abroad to gain the recognition of the world's other powers.
He then added that they should also invite European, and Japanese correspondents to witness another proclamation of Philippine Independence from Spain and announce to the world the birth of a new republic. This, he hoped, will create pressure on the US government to dissuade them from taking the Philippines in the treaty.
He explained that the Americans like to see themselves as a bastion of freedom and democracy. It won't sit well with their populace that their country will be seen as another imperialist and forcibly annexing another nation will be seen as violating their ideals.
For the topic of the defenses, General Luna is the one tasked to oversee its creation in case the Americans still decide to take the country.
Luna knows that they will not win a direct confrontation against the superior United States so he suggested laying out series trenches, and traps to the north, east, and south leading to the mountains and launch an aggressive guerilla campaign from there.
They will also build a base in the Cordillera mountains in case the Americans get past their defense lines. In addition to the camps in the mountains and forests which they will use to harass and slow the invading force.
The aim is to demoralize the American army, and have their people force their government into abandoning its imperialist ambitions and sign a treaty with the Philippine republic.
There are suggestions to attack both foreign armies immediately, but they were shut down because this may be used by the Americans as an excuse to subjugate the country and the plan to demoralize their people will never prosper.
General Aguinaldo is initially reluctant on abandoning his home province of Cavite in the event of war as his forces retreat to the mountains, but was convinced that this is the best way to prevent the Americans from taking over the country.
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A few days before the mock battle.
The representatives of the newly formed Philippine republic has come into contact with British officials, and journalists in Singapore and Hongkong, and officials in the Dutch East Indies.
Another group is currently travelling to Saigon, the capital of the French Indochina, and Qingdao to meet with French, and German officials respectively.
They are also trying to establish contact with officials in Tokyo with one more goal, get their support if ever war with America is unavoidable. They are hopeful Japan can promise to send weapons to support their cause.
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August 13, 1898. Day of the mock battle
American battleships begun shelling Fort San Antonio de Abad signaling the start of the scripted battle.
American forces rapidly pushed through and started to occupy various parts of Manila including Malate, Binondo, and San Miguel. Although they planned this to be bloodless, a number of soldiers on both sides didn't know of the agreement which led to casualties, and deaths.
This gave the Filipino forces a perfect scenario to aggressively advance and fire upon Spanish forces leaving scores of dead and wounded among Spain's soldiers. The advance gave the impression that the Filipino forces still didn't know about the secret agreement between the two foreign powers.
To the surprise of the American commanders, the Filipinos advanced rapidly and is nearing Manila. In response, they pressured their forces to move quickly and outpace the Filipinos leading to more accidental deaths on both sides.
Hearing of this development, Antonio Luna ordered his men to slow down and allow the Americans to outpace them. Though he didn't want a foreign power occupying their city, they still need to have the foreigners think their plan is working.
After the Americans occupied the city, and as the Filipino commanders expected, the Americans blocked the Filipinos from entering Manila. A few hours later, a white flag is hoisted over Intramuros.
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In Singapore and Hongkong, they are able to convince a couple of journalists to attend the proclamation, but the British officials refused to entertain their appeal. The same thing happened in Indochina, Qingdao, Japan, and the Dutch held territory where the Philippine representatives failed to get support for the acknowledgement of Philippine independence.
Apolinario Mabini expected the refusal of the British, Dutch, French and Germans, but he said it was unfortunate that the Japanese also basically refused.
Some military officials, and cabinet members expressed concern that these empires will move to invade the country once the Spanish are out of the picture. They describe them to be like vultures waiting for the Spanish Empire to finally die so they could pick apart its carcass.
Evidence of this, they pointed out, are ships from these empires in Manila Bay observing the situation.
They decided that they need to plan for the probable invasion of not only the Americans, but the British, Dutch, German, French, or Japanese as well.
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August 16, 1898, three days after the assault, a word of a peace protocol arrived to the American commanders. This meant that peace negotiations between the United States and Spain is already taking place.
