Far Eastern Strategy

1895 was a year of many events.

Four months after Emperor Nicholas II ascended the throne, around February, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nikolai Karlovich Girs, passed away.

Girs had diligently served since the beginning of Alexander III's reign in 1882 until 1895, advocating for pro-German policies and maintaining the "Three Emperors' League."

However, after the league's dissolution, Girs shifted towards diplomatic rapprochement with France.

In 1892, he played a significant role in drafting the Franco-Russian Military Convention.

"Do you have a suitable candidate for our new Minister of Foreign Affairs?"

The newly appointed Chairman of the Committee of Ministers, Witte, was feeling quite satisfied. He had come to present the report for the second meeting of the committee.

The palace servants observed Witte walking briskly and confidently. Upon entering the emperor's office, he respectfully bowed to Nicholas. The emperor, nodding in acknowledgment, then asked him.

The Foreign Ministry's affairs were temporarily overseen by Giles' deputy, Shishkin. Although he was a congenial person, Nicholas, upon meeting him, realized that Shishkin was quite unremarkable, lacking initiative, and passively carrying out the policies established by Giles during his tenure.

This included encouraging and observing the First Sino-Japanese War in the Far East.

"I believe Count Lamsdorf, the head of the Ministry's chancellery, is well-suited for the role. His temperament is similar to Giles', and he is well-versed in the workings of the ministry."

Witte pondered for a moment before suggesting his candidate.

"Hmm..."

"So, Your Majesty, has anyone else recommended other candidates to you?"

Nicholas glanced at Witte before nodding.

"May I know the names of these other candidates?"

"Certainly, State Secretary Polovtsev recommended Duke Lobanov-Rostovsky for the position of Foreign Minister."

"But Your Majesty, you are not particularly fond of Polovtsev, so there must be others who support Duke Lobanov-Rostovsky as well?"

Witte, adept at gathering information and making judgments, inferred this from Nicholas's previous unpleasant interactions with the State Secretary.

"You're right," Nicholas replied, lightly touching his nose, "My mother also mentioned that she thinks Duke Lobanov-Rostovsky is suitable for the position."

"Hmm... Duke Lobanov-Rostovsky is a well-known figure, so it's understandable why the Empress Dowager favors him. However, I believe he may not be the best fit for the role of Foreign Minister."

"And your reasoning, Witte?"

"Your Majesty, you might recall that the late Emperor had a habit of writing candid remarks in his orders and decrees."

Witte's reminder brought clarity to Nicholas.

"Yes... I see. What did my father say about Duke Lobanov-Rostovsky?"

"This notation should be preserved in the Foreign Ministry's archives... I believe Count Lamsdorf can find it."

After Nicholas instructed the secretaries to retrieve the preserved documents from the Foreign Ministry, Witte continued, "Duke Lobanov-Rostovsky received an excellent education and is skilled in diplomacy. He made a name for himself as an ambassador and is quite charming, especially with women. However, he has never held any serious office and tends to avoid spending much time on official duties. While he might be well-received in social settings, he may not be as effective in matters of state."

The returned documents, obtained by the secretary from old archives, confirmed Witte's assessment. Emperor Alexander III's annotation on one of Duke Lobanov-Rostovsky's memos described him as overly frivolous.

Nicholas didn't always adhere strictly to his father's directives but respected his years of experience and evaluations of various people and situations as valuable references.

For now, he was persuaded.

As Count Vladimir Nikolaevich Lamsdorf had yet to assume office, the First Sino-Japanese War was nearing its end.

Although the Treaty of Shimonoseki had not yet been formally signed, various terms of the negotiations had gradually reached St. Petersburg. Given that the "Witte Cabinet" was still in its early stages, this meeting was convened by Nicholas II.

Previously, due to various reasons, Nicholas had little understanding or control over foreign affairs until the passing of the veteran statesman Giles brought many of the ministry's decisions to the emperor's attention.

"We should acknowledge Japan's victories, as this could secure Japan's support for our acquisition of an ice-free port in southern Korea. Our fleet in the Far East, currently based in Vladivostok, is frequently ice-bound and lacks mobility."

Some proposed that they should align with the victorious Japan in exchange for an ice-free port in southern Korea.

However, many at the meeting were unfamiliar with China, Korea, or Japan's geographical landscapes and had little knowledge of the relationships among these countries. As a result, most senior officials present remained silent.

But Witte and others who were informed opposed this appeasement policy.

"If we allow Japan to annex the Liaodong Peninsula, they will establish a foothold on the continent, easily expanding their control over Chinese territories and, ultimately, even seizing the Imperial Throne in Beijing for the Emperor of Japan!"

Witte's resonant voice stood out prominently during the meeting.

"We must not allow Japan to seize the Liaodong Peninsula as a strategic foothold. We need to block the negotiations of the China-Japan treaty and uphold the principle of preserving the territorial integrity of the Chinese Empire."

Despite the lively discussions at the meeting, most participants had little understanding of the situation, resulting in limited productive outcomes.

Nikolai, seeing no other option, reconvened a more focused meeting three days later, this time with a streamlined group of participants who were well-informed about the situation.

The smaller meeting was chaired by Witte, the Co-Chairman of the Council of Ministers and the Minister of Finance. Attendees included the Minister of War, Vannovsky; the Chief of the General Staff, Obruchev; the Grand Duke Alexei, Minister of the Navy; the Chief of the Admiralty, Chikhachev; and the Foreign Minister, Lamsdorf.

"I believe Japan's aggression against China is a preemptive move to establish a foothold on the continent before the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railway, thereby preventing Russian interference in Japan's continental ambitions," Witte asserted, continuing to voice his strong opposition to Japan's actions.

"If the Japanese set foot on the mainland, Russia would need to mobilize tens of thousands of troops to repel them, leading to a significant financial deficit and placing a heavy burden on our nation."

Witte further suggested that a final ultimatum be issued to Japan.

"...Who benefits from such a policy? It benefits a handful of capitalists engaged in trade with China, a few factory owners producing goods for the Asian market, and certain contractors who are currently profiting immensely from emergency military orders (some factories producing weapons and military supplies are working around the clock and hiring hundreds of temporary workers). It benefits a small group of nobles holding high military and political positions. Their motivation for supporting aggressive policies is to advance their careers and gain fame by achieving 'military achievements.'

— From the inaugural issue of *Mars* in December 1900, by Lenin"

Witte's hostility toward Japan stemmed from his ongoing responsibility for the construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway, which had a very clear purpose.

As Japan was concerned, it was a powerful tool—intended to advance Russian interests in the Far East, whether through military expansion or economic colonization.

In November 1892, Witte presented the "Plan for the Construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway" to Tsar Alexander III, Nicholas's late father.

Nicholas had also reviewed this plan and expressed partial agreement with some of its visions.

In his report, Witte outlined a vision where the Trans-Siberian Railway would enable Russia to swiftly transport Chinese goods to Europe, thereby seizing market share from other Western powers. Russia could also significantly expand its market for industrial products in China.

The Russian Empire would become the "middleman" between Western Europe and East Asia, the "largest producer and consumer closest to East Asian nations," thereby gaining an absolute advantage in the East Asian market.

Moreover, Russia's position in the Far East would be gradually strengthened, consolidating Russia's "friendly" relations with Eastern countries and dealing a substantial blow to British interests in China.

Ultimately, it would secure essential supplies and establish a permanent ice-free port in the Far East for the Russian fleet.

Since Witte's appointment as Finance Minister in 1892, he had almost full control over the Russian government's budget. His abundant energy drove him to extend his influence into trade, commerce, labor, finance, and education.

After becoming the Chairman of the Council of Ministers, this trend accelerated, allowing him to promote his advocated "state policies" more effectively.

In Far Eastern diplomacy, Witte referred to his actions as "peaceful penetration."

By 1895, the Trans-Siberian Railway had reached the Baikal Lake region, but new problems had emerged in its construction.

According to a survey report from the Ministry of Transport's surveying team in the summer of 1894, if the railway followed the original plan along the Shilka and Amur rivers, the terrain would be mountainous, with rivers and swamps, making the route rugged and complex.

This would result in high costs, difficult labor conditions, and challenges in sourcing construction materials.

To address this, Witte proposed straightening the railway along the Chinese border, passing through the more densely populated and labor-rich Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces, reaching Vladivostok directly.

These were ideas Witte had previously outlined in his report and personally communicated to Nicholas. Given Witte's current hostility towards Japan, Nicholas could easily discern his intentions.

To maintain China's territorial integrity, foster friendly relations with China, and secure railway construction rights in northern Manchuria for expanding Russian influence.

"Very well, do the others have any insights?"

Nicholas nodded and motioned for the impassioned Witte to sit down, turning his attention to the others.

"I support Sergei's views."

Army Minister Vanovski expressed a similar stance and supported Witte.

"...Might this distract our attention in the West and cause us to lose diplomatic influence?"

Chief of Staff Obruchev was concerned about potential conflicts in the West, such as the Balkans or the Straits.

"I have no objections, but I would like to ask Sergei Yurievich what method we should use to implement your 'bold ideas'?"

Grand Duke Alexei inquired directly, looking at Witte.

"We must issue an ultimatum to Japan! We cannot allow violations of the principle of preserving China's integrity and sovereignty, so we cannot agree to the Sino-Japanese treaty. Of course, some compensation should be given to Japan as a victorious nation," Witte said, even more provocatively at the end, "If Japan does not agree, we have no choice but to take some 'active' measures."

"Active measures?"

Nicholas asked, uncertain.

"...I haven't fully considered it yet... but I think we might have to bomb certain Japanese ports with our fleet..."

As a Finance Minister and civilian, Witte was not familiar with Russia's military capabilities in the Far East, so he spoke vaguely.

The military officials present exchanged glances.

"In Japan, we have one armored battleship, three cruisers, four gunboats, and one torpedo boat stationed at Nagasaki, Yokohama, and Kobe. Japan's forces are estimated to include 26 torpedo boats and 33 large vessels. Deploying additional fleets would take considerable time, and I must remind Your Majesty that the fleet command has never developed a plan for operations against Japan."

Navy Director Chikhachev poured cold water on Witte's warlike stance.

"Furthermore, our fleet's emergency supplies will last less than a month, and most of these supplies are stored in Japanese ports."

Witte's hesitation seemed to please Grand Duke Alexei, who nodded at Chikhachev.

"What about the army?"

Nicholas asked Army Minister Vanovski.

"We have two mobile battalions, a Cossack unit, and half a mountain artillery battery stationed along the southern coast of the Ussuri River. The defense of Sakhalin relies mainly on local forces and militias organized by provincial governments, and the mouth of the Amur River is almost completely exposed, with no defenses."

Vanovski added that sending reinforcements to the Far East would likely take a year.

"…"

The meeting stalled in silence.

"Should we consider negotiating with Japan…"

"Cough..." Nicholas interrupted Alexei's tentative suggestion. After a brief exchange of glances, and Alexei being forced to lower his gaze, Nicholas nodded and continued, "It is difficult for us alone to compel the Japanese to make concessions, but diplomatically, what do Germany and France say?"

Seeing Nicholas's gaze, Foreign Minister Lamsdorf immediately began to speak.