Revolution and Counter-Revolution

The double-headed eagle of the Russian Empire has many intriguing interpretations.

For proponents of geopolitical strategies, one head of the double-headed eagle represents looking westward, while the other signifies the necessity of Russia's eastward expansion.

In historical and political culture, the double-headed eagle also symbolizes Russia's dual nature—one head looking forward and the other nostalgically gazing back at the past.

In Nicholas's earlier understanding, he had always viewed the death of his grandfather, Alexander II, as a turning point in the Russian government. However, after reviewing early documents and decrees, he discovered that this was not entirely accurate.

The reforms implemented by Alexander II in the early 1860s significantly eased the political and social environment in Russia compared to the extreme autocracy of Nicholas I, which aligned with the historical knowledge Nicholas had.

In society, young university students were immersed in the intoxicating air of newfound freedom brought by the thaw, eager for political engagement. Banned books and radical ideas circulated widely among students, who despised all things outdated and believed that revolution was inevitable for Russia.

Revolution needed a powerful external impetus, and that impetus was the assassination of the Tsar.

Intellectuals believed that this act would serve as a signal for a great social uprising, leading to an immediate peasant revolt to overthrow the decaying regime.

The first attempt on the Tsar's life occurred in April 1866.

Radical extremists involved in these terrorist acts believed that only terrorism could shake the powerful ruling authorities and force concessions. They hoped that the heroism of the terrorists would compel the rulers to respect their ideas and that fear would drive the general populace to pressure the government to realize their ideals.

The result was contrary to their expectations.

Instead of prompting further reform in Russia's political system, the intensification of this terrorism only led to a more conservative autocratic regime. Alexander II tightened punitive policies, taking measures to stabilize the situation: restricting strikes, suppressing revolutionary movements, and strengthening police powers.

Alexander II hoped for national stability, but like the radicals, he did not achieve the desired outcome.

Liberals opposed the Tsar because reforms had halted.

Conservatives opposed the Tsar because he had once enacted reforms.

The general populace was also dissatisfied with the government. The half-hearted reforms, especially those related to land and their entanglement with predatory capitalism, contributed to widespread poverty and discontent.

Conservatives attributed all problems to the reforms, claiming that "reform is the root of all evil," and advocated a return to autocratic rule.

The Tsarist government appeared shaky and surrounded by enemies.

Alexander II himself was bewildered. After surviving a bomb attack on his train, he sorrowfully remarked, "What are these unfortunate people dissatisfied with? Why do they pursue me like a wild beast? After all, I have been doing my utmost to benefit the people!"

Nicholas, too, was perplexed. He recognized the active liberalism among the populace and the need for reform, but could they be relied upon? Were their proposed reforms trustworthy?

Facing choices with uncertain outcomes, Nicholas needed some counsel.

Coincidentally, a self-recommended official came to Nicholas's attention.

Peter Nikolayevich Durnovo.

Initially, Nicholas mistook this name for the recently retired Interior Minister Durnovo, only to find out from the Emperor's office secretary that the two were entirely unrelated.

"Are these two not related?"

"No, Your Majesty. They are not related by blood."

"...Then the Durnovo who studied in Paris?"

"Your Majesty, you are referring to Peter Nikolayevich, not Ivan Nikolayevich."

Nicholas then realized he had confused the two Durnovos.

"I see. Please have him come in."

It was mid-June, and the Tsar and Tsarina had arrived by train at the Alexander Palace for their summer retreat.

Under the wooden awning, Nicholas sat at a small round table painted white. A cup of coffee was set aside, and several official documents were spread out for him to review.

The outdoor sunshine was bright, a gentle breeze blew, and the air was filled with the pleasant sounds of birds and flowers.

"Your Majesty."

A court servant led the neatly dressed Peter Durnovo into the Tsar's summer office. After a bow and a gesture from Nicholas, Durnovo took a seat on half of a nearby wooden chair.

"I have seen your petition, but bypassing your minister may not be appropriate."

Peter Nikolayevich Durnovo had been working in the Interior Ministry's Police Department. His bold action of submitting a petition directly to Tsar Nicholas II, bypassing the superior Interior Minister Goremykin, was unconventional.

"Whether ministers or we civil servants, we all strive to serve Your Majesty and the government."

Durnovo replied.

Nicholas nodded. He was not concerned about the breach of protocol, given that he himself was also breaking traditional rules.

"I understand you previously studied in France and have a good grasp of the French Revolution?"

"At that time, I was working in the Interior Ministry's Police Department. In 1884, I was assigned to examine police systems and methods for monitoring rebels across European countries."

Durnovo briefly described his experience studying in Europe.

"Not only do I have knowledge of the 1789 French Revolution, but I am also familiar with the July Revolution of 1830, the Paris Revolution of 1848, and the Berlin and Vienna Revolutions."

"So, in your view, how should we respond to a revolution?"

While Durnovo was elaborating on his views, Nicholas suddenly asked him this question.

"Loyal junior officers, a strong anti-revolutionary will, and a reliable intelligence and financial system are essential preparations for facing a major revolution."

Durnovo, not taken aback, naturally presented his theoretical knowledge.

This impressed Nicholas.

"I have read your proposal. Do you believe my current inclination towards reform indicates that Russia will face turmoil in the future?"

Durnovo cited a statement from the French historian Alexis de Tocqueville in his petition: "The occurrence of a revolution does not necessarily result from people's worsening conditions. More commonly, when a people who had seemingly endured the most intolerable laws without complaint find their oppression alleviated, they attempt to rid themselves of it entirely... History shows us that the most dangerous time for a reactionary government is when it begins to reform."

In response to Nicholas's inquiry, Durnovo replied confidently.

"Your Majesty, I am not here to criticize or obstruct your policies. However, based on my studies, I aim to help you better understand how a true reactionary can handle a great upheaval."

Turbulent waves—that was Durnovo's pessimistic forecast for the future.

Nicholas, on the other hand, had already learned from his own experiences as a time traveler about an alternate path's outcomes. Whether or not he made changes, a dramatic upheaval in Russia was inevitable.

"You seem to have a rather pessimistic view of the future, Durnovo," Nicholas said.

Nicholas, who had been lounging casually with his legs crossed and leaning back in his wooden chair, now sat upright and fixed his gaze on Durnovo, the young self-proclaimed expert on counter-revolution.

"Reforms will act as a catalyst for revolution, Your Majesty."

This statement made Nicholas nod in agreement. Wasn't this just what the Bolsheviks were all about?

However, if Russia aspired to become an industrial powerhouse, how could it possibly do so without a working class?

As the working class grew in size, it was inevitable that revolutionary parties advocating for the red banner would emerge.

"You need not advise me on the urgency of reforms; I have already made my decision on that matter. What is more pressing now are the political activities from outside, especially from the populace. They have their own reform proposals. What is your view on this?"

Although Nicholas II, as Tsar, was seen as the father of the Russian nation due to the country's autocratic traditions, not everyone followed his lead. The more educated individuals were more likely to have their own opinions and free thoughts.

Nicholas was currently dealing with numerous petitions from various sectors of Russian society—some progressive, some conservative, and some radical.

At the start of Nicholas II's reign, the few changes he made to the Russian government were seen as an extension of Alexander II's reform spirit, which Nicholas found both amusing and frustrating.

Despite Russia's censorship and press control, 19th-century standards of governance meant that the country was still quite backward. Aside from semi-official and quasi-official conservative publications, some liberal newspapers continued to have a significant impact on Russian society.

"Are you referring to those restless intellectuals, Your Majesty?"

Durnovo noticed a copy of the "Russian News" under the coffee cup on Nicholas's desk, its front page boldly declaring, "Crowning the Edifice of Reform!"

First published in 1863, the "Russian News" was a major platform for Moscow's liberal intellectuals and local autonomy activists.

"Yes, their activities are quite significant."

Nicholas had not, as Moscow Governor Sergei had recommended, directly suppressed the local autonomy association in Tver Province, which had first petitioned in January. This ambiguous stance was seized upon by liberals as an opportunity for bolder advocacy.

"Although intellectuals make up only a small fraction of our large population, their voices often make many ministers feel besieged and helpless."

Durnovo's critique was sweeping.

"You're right," Nicholas agreed after a moment's thought. "Liberal intellectuals demand thorough reforms, an idealized sense of progress, and the chance to achieve their ideals through comprehensive societal transformation. But these are utopian goals that no government has ever been able to fully satisfy."

Durnovo's insightful analysis earned a round of applause from Nicholas.

"Your perspective is unique and enlightening."

Encouraged by Nicholas's response, Durnovo became bolder.

"Therefore, if Your Majesty wishes to reform, you must provide opportunities for these naive liberals to express their differing opinions. The few liberal intellectuals who evolved into radical revolutionaries during Alexander II's time did so because their political aspirations could only be pursued through illegal anti-establishment activities in Russia's intolerant political environment."

"Are you suggesting a parliament and constitution, like these people advocate in newspapers and petitions?"

"Not at all, Your Majesty."

Durnovo lowered his gaze, worried that his suggestion might be seen as a veiled appeal for liberal reforms.

"Intellectuals' goals are always unrealistic and utopian, while ours should be concrete."

"Indeed, you're right."

Nicholas nodded, acknowledging that his goals were clear: to develop industry, strengthen finances, and rejuvenate the countryside, ultimately modernizing the Russian Empire.

"Since our goals are clear, our systems and reforms should advance toward achieving them. Thus, what our systems and reforms should look like is also clear. Finally, those who benefit from the new systems and reforms and have their economic interests met will be our supporters."

Durnovo's straightforward analysis even suggested the notion of "distinguishing friends from foes."

"And the liberals? They style themselves as representatives of the people but fundamentally misunderstand the 'people'. If they initiate reforms, it will only plunge Russia into greater chaos, and they will end up on the guillotine, like Philippe Égalité."

Philippe Égalité, a relative of Louis XVI, attempted to seize power through advocacy of enlightenment ideas and support for populism. During the French Revolution, he renamed himself Philippe Égalité to appease revolutionaries, but ultimately met his end on the guillotine, with his family assets seized.

"So you believe we should establish a forum for political dissent but ensure it is not controlled by these liberals and intellectuals?"

"Your Majesty is wise."

Nicholas, now eager, continued to discuss the French Revolution with Durnovo, finding the conversation highly enlightening.

"Well… today's meeting has been very fruitful."

After nearly two hours of discussion, Nicholas stood up, feeling parched. Durnovo stood as well, and they shook hands. Nicholas, genuinely pleased, said to Durnovo:

"You must play a greater role in the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Or is there another position you have in mind?"

"Lord Privy Seal's work is quite similar to my expertise. If possible, I would appreciate Your Majesty's recommendation."

"Very well. By the way, how did you manage to get your petition to me?"

Nicholas was curious about this. He hadn't yet looked into Durnovo's background—perhaps his family had some notable history.

"Oh, that's nothing. I simply bribed the secretary," Durnovo said casually.

Well, advanced political skills often come down to the simplest methods.