CH58 - Schengen Agreement

Yuri shouted in panic.

"Senior, watch out! Look in front!"

"What?"

I snapped back to reality and realized we were about to rush into a busy intersection. Startled, I quickly hit the brakes.

Screech!

The car came to a sudden stop past the stop line.

Other cars around us honked in surprise.

Honk! Honk!

A driver opened their window and cursed, "Hey, you idiot! Can't you drive properly?"

It was entirely my fault without room for excuses.

Feeling a cold sweat on my forehead, I pulled over to the side and turned off the engine for a moment. Yuri, with a shocked expression, said, "That was close!"

"Sorry. I was lost in thought for a moment."

"What were you thinking about?"

Should I mention the hologram that flashed in front of my eyes? No, probably not.

I leaned back, trying to calm my breath. Thankfully, Yuri shouted, or else we could have caused a major accident due to my carelessness.

Not only the sudden thought of the prophecy was an issue, but my absent-mindedness while driving was even more concerning.

Even if I were the only one to die in a crash caused by me, what sin did Yuri and the other driver commit?

I need to be more careful when driving in the future.

Yuri looked at me with a worried expression.

"Are you okay?"

"Yeah. Are you okay? Didn't it startle you?"

"Of course, it did. A person who was driving well suddenly does this, how could I not be startled?"

"I'm sorry."

"Are you really okay?"

"If you say so."

Yuri, who was checking on me for a moment, nodded.

"Okay then, shall we go for a drive?"

"…"

Even after experiencing such an incident, does she still want to ride in a car driven by me?

If I were her, I would just take a taxi home.

"Where do you want to go?"

"How about Pal-dang Dam? Ji-hye went there with her boyfriend, saying there are many nice cafes with a great atmosphere."

Thinking about the petite girl with short hair who often hangs out with Yuri, she doesn't stand out like Yuri, but she's quite cute.

"Ji-Hye has a boyfriend?"

"Yes. It's been a while."

"Who is it?"

At that, Yuri glanced sideways.

"You seem curious about Ji-hye."

"I just asked."

Anyway, since I've already bought the car, I should drive it a bit more aggressively, right?

The Panamera got off the busy Gangnam roads and onto the Olympic Boulevard. Even with just a slight press on the gas pedal, the car shot forward in an instant.

So, what now?

The speed limit is 80 kilometers per hour anyway.

I drove, making sure not to make the same mistake as before, focusing on the road ahead. But my mind was filled with thoughts of what I saw earlier.

Was this the very source of the unease I've been feeling?

"Brexit…" I muttered, as if in response, Yuri asked, "Are you interested?"

"No, not really…"

Just a moment ago I wasn't interested, but suddenly I became incredibly curious.

In fact, Brexit had been a stale issue. For years, there had been a back-and-forth struggle between the UK and the EU, with both sides unable to reconcile their differences.

The reason the issue resurfaced recently was that a national referendum date had been confirmed.

"Do you know anything about Brexit, senior?"

I keep up with the news and articles, so I know it well. Hearing so much about it in the media made it hard to stay oblivious.

Worried that my recent behavior might seem odd, I pretended not to know intentionally.

"I've heard about it, but I don't know the details."

"Well, let me explain. Listen while you focus on driving."

"Okay."

"Brexit is a portmanteau of 'Britain' and 'exit,' which literally means the UK leaving the European Union (EU)."

To understand this situation, you first need to know what the European Union is.

The European Union traces its origins back to the ECSC (European Coal and Steel Community) established after World War II. It evolved from the ECC (European Economic Community) to the EC (European Community) and finally, in 1993, the EU (European Union) was formed.

It was the birth of the largest intergovernmental union in human history.

There are two main reasons why European countries with diverse nationalities, cultures, and languages could come together. Firstly, they shared democratic and Christian values, and secondly, after two world wars, they felt the need for a new community that transcended national and ethnic boundaries.

Starting with 12 countries, the EU expanded as more European countries joined and now counts 28 member states. With top GDP countries such as Germany, France, the UK, Italy, etc., its economic size is tremendous.

At the time of its establishment, it was the largest in the world, but currently, it has been pushed to second place by the United States.

"But I heard that the UK is considering withdrawing now."

How does she know this so well? A regular university student wouldn't know this level of detail.

Thinking this, I glanced over to see Yuri had an article related to the topic on her phone.

"If that's the case, wouldn't it be better for me to just park and look it up myself?"

Anyway, Yuri continued to gaze at her smartphone and explain.

The EU led political and economic integration in Europe. For this, member countries transferred some of their national authority to the EU, issued a single currency, the Euro, and entered into the Schengen Agreement to allow the free movement of people and goods.

You can understand this by looking at the map, as European countries are bordered on all sides. Completely controlling these borders is not only impossible but also inefficient.

Previously, one had to go through immigration checks when traveling from Germany to France, but among the signing countries of the Schengen Agreement, people can move without any inspections, similar to traveling from Seoul to Busan in Korea.

"The UK joined the EU but still uses its currency, the Pound, and did not join the Schengen Agreement."

"But why do they want to withdraw then?"

"There are various EU regulations, but the biggest issue is immigration and refugees."

This is not a problem unique to the UK. The whole of Europe has been struggling with refugees pouring in from the Middle East.

Each border has huge refugee camps, requiring massive budgets to feed and shelter them.

Moreover, some refugees have committed crimes, and occasional indiscriminate terror attacks have occurred.

As a result, public opinion has deteriorated drastically.

Currently, under German leadership, the EU is pushing for a refugee allocation system, which the UK vehemently opposes.

"Despite various problems and conflicting national interests, the EU system has been sustained due to the common value of a united Europe. However, unlike other European countries, the UK, being an island nation with ties to the US, traditionally sees itself differently as part of Europe. It's on the lighter side of perception."

***

I parked in front of the cafe and went inside with Yuri.

"Having an Americano?"

"Yeah."

As I went up to the cafe rooftop with a warm Americano, I could see the Hangang River below. Even on a weekday, there were quite a few people occupying seats.

Yuri gathered her fluttering blonde hair and tied it up, a sight so beautiful it was hard to look away from.

"It's nice to get some fresh air after so long."

"Was it a good idea to come together?"

Nodding, I thought of Oracle.

"Yeah."

It was indeed a good idea to come together.

I sipped my coffee and searched for a few articles on my phone.

Among the EU member countries, there has not been a country that has withdrawn so far. There was mention of a possible "Grexit" in the past when Greece faced debt restructuring and austerity issues.

Greece has a small share in the global economy and within the EU. Even if a Grexit were to happen, its impact on the world economy would not be significant.

However, Brexit poses a different dimension.

The UK is a major pillar supporting the EU alongside Germany and France. If one pillar is taken out, dissatisfaction from other member states could lead to further exits, potentially causing the collapse of the European Union itself.

Therefore, the EU has presented a suitable agreement to the UK, essentially saying, "We will consider your circumstances, so please stay." Based on the Prime Minister's promise, the UK government decided to put the EU's agreement to a national referendum.

Whether the agreement is accepted or rejected, the referendum itself holds no legal weight. To officially exit the EU, the UK must trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Ignoring the results of democratic referendums is not acceptable in a democratic society. If the agreement is rejected, the UK remains in the EU. If accepted, the UK will leave the EU.

Brexit is happening literally.

So what will actually happen?

The information provided by Oracle is extremely limited.

Although it did inform about the voting results, it did not explain what impact it would have or how to respond.

It is my responsibility to find out.

"What are you doing?"

"I was looking for some articles."

Yuri asked me, looking at me.

"What do you think will happen?"

"About what?"

"The Brexit vote."

"Well."

I replied vaguely, changing the topic.

"But why did your father go to the UK?"

"He went there for work."

"What does he do?"

Yuri seemed slightly flustered at my question.

"Well, he works in the financial sector, dealing with funds and such."

"A fund manager?"

"Yes, something like that."

"Is it a foreign company?"

"He used to work for a foreign company, but now he works for a Korean company."

A domestic securities firm?

No wonder she mentioned buying Samsung Electronics stocks with pocket money.

"Do you have time this weekend by any chance? There's a movie I want to see."

I said with a smile.

"Sorry, I've got plans with a friend at home."

"Oh, I see."

We left the cafe and strolled near the Pal-dang Lake, chatting about various things.

By the time we returned to Gangnam, the sun had set.

"Take care on your way back, senior. See you next week."

"Yeah. Goodbye."

I dropped Yuri off and called Hyunjoo-noon on the way home.

"As soon as you find any materials related to Brexit, please send them all. I need to confirm something as soon as possible."

***

Brexit was the biggest issue in the financial industry recently.

As such, reports related to Brexit poured out at Golden Gate. Hyunjoo-noona collected all the information and sent it to me via email.

Since it was the weekend, I was stuck at home reading the materials.

Taekgyu asked, "So, it means the UK is leaving the EU?"

"That's right."

"Most experts were predicting they would remain, though."

"You can't really believe what those so-called experts say. If they are so knowledgeable, why spread rumors everywhere? They should keep it to themselves."

Taekgyu nodded at my words.

"That's true."

So, we remained silent and quiet.

"Alright. What happens next then? Is it just the UK leaving the EU and it's over?"

"Do you really think it'll be that simple?"

There will likely be a massive aftermath on the global economy. The extent of the impact is hard to estimate.

That's why I'm diligently reading the materials from Golden Gate. Timing is crucial in a short position.

Just like with the L6 incident, if the expiration date had been a few days later, we would have lost over 10 billion.

Since then, I have reflected on avoiding reckless bets on short positions. However, this time, it's a bit different.

Brexit is an event that could turn the global financial markets upside down, and I am well aware of the outcome and date.

Will there ever be such a good opportunity again?

After reading the materials over two days, I concluded.

"I should thank the United Kingdom for this."

Taekgyu looked puzzled and asked, "What do you mean?"

"It means a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity has come."

TL/n - 

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty outlines the process for a member state to withdraw from the European Union (EU).

Here are the key points:

Notification: A member state must notify the European Council of its intention to leave.

Negotiation: The EU and the withdrawing state negotiate a withdrawal agreement, setting out the arrangements for the withdrawal and the framework for the future relationship.

Timeframe: The negotiations are supposed to be completed within two years from the notification, although this period can be extended if all member states agree.

Decision-Making: During the negotiation period, the withdrawing state does not participate in EU decision-making related to its withdrawal.

This article was famously invoked by the United Kingdom to initiate Brexit.

***

The Schengen Agreement is a significant treaty that led to the creation of the Schengen Area, where internal border checks have largely been abolished. Here are some key points about it:

Signing and Implementation =>

Date Signed: June 14, 1985

Location: Near the town of Schengen, Luxembourg

Initial Signatories: Belgium, France, West Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands

Effective Date: March 26, 1995

Purpose =>

Main Goal: Abolish border checks at the signatories' common borders

Key Features: Free movement of people within the Schengen Area. Harmonization of visa policies. Reduction of vehicle checks at borders

Expansion =>

Current Members: 29 European countries

Population Covered: Over 400 million people

Non-EU Members: Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein (through special association agreements)

Integration into EU Law =>

Amsterdam Treaty: Incorporated the Schengen Agreement into EU law in 1999

Current Status =>

Operation: Functions like a single state for international travel purposes

Border Controls: External border controls for travelers entering and exiting the area, no internal border controls