1 Dawn of a New Day

It is a doctrine of war not to assume the enemy will not come,

but rather to rely on one's readiness to meet him; not to presume

that he will not attack, but rather to make one's self invincible

- Sun Tzu

Philippine Navy Headquarters,

Subic Bay

May 10

1000 hrs.

Navy Admiral Bartolomeo Palacpac was a man with serious decisions to make. Tall, dark and with painfully piercing eyes, he had personally witnessed the invasion and defeat of Taiwan after it had declared independence from China. He had also seen the once powerful American navy retreat from the conflict to avoid a larger war. He had long argued that once China started on a path of conquest it would eventually start heading south. The continuous expansion of the PLA in spite of the UN economic sanctions and its weakened economy reinforced his fears. He had just come back from a briefing of China's oil production forecasts for the next five years. China had already exhausted its land bound reserves and the analysts had revealed that they would not have enough to sustain their economy at their current rate of consumption. Already, there were reports of factory closures, long lines at gas stations and food shortages affecting even the more affluent members of Chinese society. The Chinese government had already occupied and developed reefs and islands all over the South China Sea with the intent of exploiting the energy reserves underneath. It had pushed aside all other claimants with their superior naval and air forces despite diplomatic protests. They would have taken more from his country had it not been for the wars against Taiwan and Japan. The conflicts so exhausted the PLA that it barely had the resources to fight anyone else.

The year before the Chinese Navy tried to 'persuade' the Philippine Marine garrison at Pag-asa island to abandon their positions by a blockade of at least four of their coast guard cutters just off its shores. Instead of withdrawing, the Philippine Navy sent up heavily armed aircraft with Harpoon anti-ship missiles attached to their wings. They flew low and close enough for the Chinese to see what the planes were carrying. The ships were too far south for any air support to show up in time. The cutters also detected fire control radars coming from the island. With the bulk of their air and navy units tied up in the north confronting the Japanese near the Senkaku islands, they received orders not to engage and withdraw. The conflict with Japan diverted their attention for the better part of a year. The stalemate that ensued was a slap in the face of Chinese military leaders whom he calculated would try to save their careers by engaging in a conflict with a smaller nation in the hopes of gaining a victory there.

When Taiwan fell, deliveries of military hardware for Taipei from the United States and NATO were diverted to the Philippines as part of the military pact between the two nations. The survivors of the Taiwanese navy and air force fled to nearby Philippine bases. A collection of frigates scheduled to be mothballed were refurbished through SLEP and upgraded and 'sold' at low cost. The Americans also helped in the local manufacture of Pegasus-class fast patrol boats and were now being hastily being launched at the Cebu shipyards. America and Japan who were eager to protect the sea lanes coming through the area sold substantial quantities of weapons and ordnance to the growing Philippine military.

But for the admiral, it would not be enough to stop an attack if the PLA decided to come their way. Even with the world sympathetic to its problem, the navy was only able to acquire ten more Oliver Hazard-Perry class frigates from Australia and Spain. Smaller locally made frigates were being produced in Subic with two of them having their shake down cruises in the Sulu Sea. That gave the country a mixed force of frigates that numbered about twenty-five. But the numbers were deceiving. Many of the ships were old and their weapon systems were far from modern. From his office window however, he could see the crown jewel of the new navy, the BRP Ramon Magsaysay. It was one of the most expensive acquisitions of the country's modernization program. Convinced that the navy would need its own organic air units for fleet operations, the country convinced the Spanish government to sell their decommissioned Principe de Asturias light carrier. It could carry thirty-five aircraft including some the last Harrier AV8Bs still flying and travel at a top speed of thirty knots. It would soon be joined by its near-sister, the former Thai light carrier, HTMS Chakri Nauebet, now named the BRP Fidel Ramos, which was acquired last year after the Pag-asa confrontation and was now working up with the new frigates in the Sulu Sea. A planned exercise called for the two carriers to come together and test their ability to act as fleet and not a mere assemblage of individual vessels. On paper, he knew that it was a force that would make any would be aggressor take pause. But he also knew that despite the serious losses suffered by the Chinese navy against Japan, they still possessed a powerful fleet and in an actual shooting war, his force would be overwhelmed in a matter of days, if not hours. He knew better than to place too much value on these two behemoths. He had other assets lurking about the South China Sea. They would stand a better chance to inflicting major damage to any fleet entering Philippine territory. He consoled himself that the PLA was essentially a land-based force with no history of ever fighting a major naval battle. But then again, neither had he.

BRP Corregidor, SSK 7

South China Sea

2000 hrs.

The boat represented a quantum leap in the country's naval doctrine. No longer would it wait to be attacked. With this submarine, it would seek out and kill any enemy before it got close to shore. The United States had stopped selling any weapon systems the Chinese might mistake as offensive just when peace peace talks at the UN were about to take place. So the Philippines sought out other friendly nations to sell it the systems it desperately needed. The BRP Corregidor was an upgraded Japanese Harushio-class diesel submarine. Though somewhat of an older hull, part of the ceasefire agreement between China and Japan called for a reduction of their naval forces. Instead of scrapping the boat, it was 'disposed' as scrap and given to the Philippine Navy along with its six other sister ships. She possessed the clean lines of a nuclear powered boat and an anechoic-coated hull which absorbed sonar pulses. But it also possessed the one quality that gave many diesel subs the edge over their nuclear cousins: absolute silence. A nuclear boat needed to keep its pumps running in order not to expose the core. A diesel boat, on the other hand, by simply turning off its engine, could become a ghost.

Captain William Kho PN, kept a tight watch on his ship. The sixty-five officers and crew were all volunteers and highly educated. Submarine training was the toughest for any in the navy. Only the best recruits remained. A few were aboard the ship held Master's degrees and one even a PhD in engineering. He himself graduated from Annapolis. He also bore the distinction of being the only officer in the navy to pass the British Navy's Perisher submarine training course.

Most of the crew earned their 'dolphins' the hard way. They trained under Japanese 'advisers' and later British naval 'volunteers' during their last shakedown. Personally, he would have preferred a nuclear boat like the American Los Angeles-class which were now being retired. But the cost of buying, training and maintaining those boats would have been prohibitive. The Harushios would have to do. For now.

In the last few weeks he had been training his crew hard. He conducted constant drills even at odd hours. They even trained with the lights out. He timed how fast the crew can set up a snapshot with a torpedo and pushed them to improve their time. He knew many of the crew were still getting a feel of the submarine, especially when many of the instructions that came with it were translated from Japanese. He ordered his men to know their equipment by heart. In the event of a shooting war, there would be no time to review the manuals.

His current mission had them patrolling the Luzon Strait. He was to report any and all contacts but not to engage. He was to leave those to the fast patrol craft and TU-95 Bears flying off from Clark AFB. He had to smile at the irony of the situation. Decades earlier, the thought of Russian bombers operating off the the old American base would have been sufficient cause to force an officer to take an early retirement. Yet, there they were. Flying long range patrols into the South China to the south and as far north as the east coast of China. Staying just inside international waters but constantly reminding the Chinese that they were there keeping an eye on them. He turned his thoughts back to his boat. In spite of the motely collection of ships and weapons, the Philippines now had a credible blue-water navy. Handled well enough, it could conceivably stop a Chinese advance.

"Thanks Chief."

Chief Petty Officer Ray Lacson handed him a cup of coffee. Despite the number of officers he had aboard, it was Chief Lacson he relied on to keep his crew in line. Towering a foot over most of the men, he automatically got a man's attention – if not his respect – even from those who outranked him. Admiral Palacpac once wondered out loud if Chief Lacson would even fit inside the cramped quarters of the boat. The Chief proved everybody wrong and adjusted. Besides, Kho thought, he was the most sought after Chief in the navy. He also knew every inch of the boat as any man aboard.

"We fixed the noise short Captain. Somebody left a toolbox unsecured in the engine room. It fell from its locker and sounded like a chandelier crashing onto the deck. Won't happen again sir."

Kho motioned to his XO, Commander Andrew Baguio whom he kept referring to as 'Jimmy'.

"Jimmy, I want you and Chief Lacson to go over every inch of the boat and secure everything that can make so much as a farting sound. I want it so quiet in here that our sonar can tell me what species of whale is humping twenty kilometers behind us."

As the two headed aft, he returned to his charts. He was satisfied with the performance of the crew so far. But with the possibility of a real conflict, he had to continue to keep the crew at a war footing. Slacking off on noise shorts could cost them their lives. In spite of their chosen profession, living was just as important to them as was killing.

Fifth Air Combat Wing

Clark AFB, Central Luzon

May 11

0840 hrs.

The Philippine Air Force was once derided as "mostly air, no force" by all of its counterparts in Southeast Asia. As late as the early nineties, it was still flying obsolete F-5As and Bs handed down from the South Koreans. All of its planes rightly belonged to a museum or the scrap pile as most were no longer safe to fly. Decades of official corruption in the Philippine government as well as within the AFP kept the PAF from acquiring the planes that could patrol and defend Philippine air space. It experienced an unexpected windfall when Taiwan fell to the Chinese. The surviving F-16C fighters as well as other combat aircraft fled to the country and were 'appropriated' by the government. Additional F-16s and other supplies that were supposed to be delivered to Taiwan before the invasion were diverted to Clark. The end of the conflict between China and Japan led to additional deliveries of F-15Js which the Japanese had replaced with more modern F-22s and F-3s. The Koreans also completed their deliveries of F-15Ks which further strengthened their interceptor and strike capabilities. Those fighters were distributed to the four combat wings created by the PAF. Each wing was assigned s specific The Fifth ACW was one of two tasked to defend the skies over Luzon. On paper each Air Combat Wing had 18 F-16C Blk 52s, 18 F-15Js, 18 F-15Ks along with refueling tankers and two Grumman E2 Hawkeyes. The Fifth ACW would bear the initial brunt of any war between China and the Philippines.

The two ACWs were scheduled to be relocated to the former Laoag International Airport in Northern Luzon to make more room for the one additional ACWs being transferred from Mindanao. Replacement planes and engines were also being shipped in from third party countries as the United States had seen it fit to cease additional deliveries to the Philippines as a goodwill gesture to the Chinese. This was crucial as engines needed to be replaced after a certain number of sorties. At the rate the pilots were training, that meant they needed new engines every other day. The PAF commanders knew their history. Clark AFB was the scene of a military disaster in the opening days of World War II. Despite a nine hour warning about Pearl Harbor, most of the American planes were caught on the ground and destroyed by the Japanese. The disaster left the entire archipelago without air cover and ensured a quick conquest by the invaders. Every officer in the PAF was required to learn that lesson and they had no intention of letting history repeat itself.

The PAF now had a force that included over 200 fighter aircraft manned by trained pilots. Some of them with experience in actual air combat over the Sea of Japan. Many others were trained by American civilian instructors which was a way to get around the new American restrictions.

Colonel Vincent Ricarte stood along the tarmac watching his pilots return from their exercise. He had commanded a squadron of F/A-50s during the short war between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyudao islands. They gave a good account of themselves against the Chinese and North Koreans but lost more than half their number in planes and pilots. The PAF was in the process of rebuilding itself when Taiwan fell. With the 'sequestered' aircraft from those who fled the conflict, they now had a larger fleet than they were planning for. He was given command of the Fifth AC Wing. He tried to teach his new pilots the hard earned lessons from the last war. But was aware that even with the Chinese air force significantly reduced after the losses it suffered against Japan and the subsequent treaty that demanded that both countries reduce their capabilities, the PAF was still outnumbered three-to-one when it came to fighter aircraft and fifty-to-one when it came to attack or bomber planes. If any war between their countries broke out he knew his command would probably not survive. There would be no way to replace any losses of planes and pilots. There was no defensive plan they could formulate in which they would survive. So he and his staff came up with an idea to give his command a fighting chance. It was dangerous and it had no guarantee of success but the only alternative was annihilation.

Over the skies of Pampanga province, Captain Jonathan Tiambeng was making another theoretical attack on a flight of F-16Cs. Taking advantage of his F-15J's enhanced performance to sneak up on and 'kill' three of the four planes of the training flight. He didn't have to try to maneuver as this would have played into the hands of the agile F-16s. As the surviving Falcon gave chase and was lining up for a shot, it was 'shot down' by his wingman who was expecting such an attempt. He could hear the muttered curses the F-16 pilots as they were introduced – rather unkindly – to the realities of modern air warfare.

"Blue leader, this is Red One. You and your flight are dead. Land your planes and prepare for debriefing at 1400. Out."

"Roger that, Red One."

He considered his plane. The F-15J Silent Eagle was a concept the Japanese explored while it was waiting for its F-22 Raptors from the United States to be delivered. It had a weapons bay that opened when a missile was to be fired. The fighter had a reduced radar signature that though it was not completely stealthy, in the hands of a skillful pilot, it could conduct attacks similar to what he had just done against his trainees. It was as beautiful as it was deadly. But he only had eighteen of them with two replacement planes tucked away for safekeeping. He knew that they needed more of these in the war he knew that was coming. In the meantime, it was his job to train every pilot to shoot down as many of their adversary and return to base with his plane in one piece. The irony of the thought didn't escape him. As what he and his surviving squadron mates learned over the Sea of Japan, it was only when they disregarded their own lives did they manage to defeat their enemies and come home alive.

BRP Fidel V. Ramos

Sulu Sea

1120 hrs.

He was still angry at what had happened. Despite the best plans he and his staff could come up with, a pair of planes were still able to sneak through and 'sink' the carrier. Two Tu-95 Bears had approached at high altitude from the north and as was the plan, they quickly dispatched a flight of four AV-8B Super Harriers to intercept. While they all focused on the incoming targets, two F-15Ks flying at almost wave top height flew in from the south east and launched four hypothetical AGM-84 Harpoon missiles at the ship. Before they could even effectively react, the planes were already going supersonic away from the fleet. None of his own planes had the speed to catch up. The previous week, a submarine was able to come within range and launched two torpedoes against the carrier and another torpedo against one of the new frigates who was supposed to protect her from such an attack.

Read Admiral Ruperto Mangahas understood that it was going to be a steep learning curve for the sailors and aviators of his little fleet. They were all too new. New ships, new captains, new crew, new systems and new everything. Admiral Palacpac had signaled him that the Magsaysay and its group of escorts would join them in a few days to test their abilities in defending themselves against another carrier force. He knew the commanders of that force well. He did after all, train them into the credible force it had become. He looked his staff and recognized they were all waiting on him to tell them what to do.

"How far out were those F-15s out before we saw them?"

"About fourteen kilometers Admiral. By then, they would have already released their missiles and we only had a few seconds to react."

"And we had no planes in the sector?"

"We did, sir. But we sent them up against the incoming Tu-95 raid. As per our doctrine, we send up two fighters against one large bomber. As soon as the Bears saw our response, they retreated north. Our Harriers were heading back when the F-15s showed up."

"What about our escort frigates?"

"Admiral, the ships' search radars weren't able to pick them up at all. Their fire control systems were pointing towards the incoming Bears. They were calculating their solutions when they were broadsided by the other strike."

"Recommendations?"

"Sir, our three-ship force is just too small. We need additional ships to act as outer radar pickets beyond the horizon. Our fighters are too slow. Our real-time satellite links are not yet on line. We could have seen all possible threats had that been operational. We just can't fight off any serious threat at this point."

He noted the frustration in his subordinate's voice. He was after all, correct in his assessment. The ship was a quick acquisition from the Thai navy who wanted to remove what they considered an expensive white elephant. It was similar in form to the older Magsaysay but its electronic suit was not as yet upgraded to her sister's level. But he reasoned to himself that the exercises were done precisely to ferret out any gaps in their systems. Though he saw no need to chew out his staff, he knew they needed to experience failures of this sort to better prepare them.

"We'll do better next time. Right now I want every system in CIC online and working. I want the escorts' radar data linked up with ours. CAG, I want you plan on how to prevent this from happening again given our limited fighter protection. I want a working plan by tonight. Send an order out to the frigate captains that I want their Wildcats conducting ASW runs all throughout the remainder of the exercise. The same will be said for our ASW helos on board. Any questions?"

"We can have bare minimum satellite ops by tomorrow afternoon, Admiral. I can't guarantee full operational capabilities anytime soon though, sir."

"Do the best you can. Until we're fully operational, we're nothing but a big fat target for some Intsik to shoot at. I want everyone to give me an update by 2000 hrs. and another one at 0500 hrs. tomorrow. Don't let me down. Dismissed."

As the officers filed out of his quarters, an orderly brought in his lunch. He really didn't have the appetite but he reminded himself that he wasn't a young ensign anymore and he couldn't take anything for granted given his age.

Time. I need more time to do this properly.

As he began to devour his meal, he wondered if the time hadn't already run out.

Pag-asa Island

South China Sea

1400 hrs.

It was one of the last two islands still flying the Philippine flag anywhere in the disputed areas. If one didn't count the rusting BRP Sierra Madre which was permanently grounded on Ayungin Reef, then it would be the only real piece of land the country his command still had any control of in the Spratley Islands. Colonel Mike Harder of the Philippine Marines knew he and his men were stationed on a political and military bull's-eye. The Chinese had tried to take the island once already. Only the bravado of the PAF and the war against Japan prevented the Chinese from making it a serious effort. Since then, the island had been expanded and the facilities improved and 'hardened'. The old airfield was expanded and protected hangers were built. A large artificial harbor was built to accept larger ships. Both improvements were made to ensure the island could take in the reinforcements it would need in the event of an invasion. The island defenses were also quietly but quickly built up. A battery of HIMARS were tucked away in newly built bunkers. Another battery of RGM-84 Harpoons was to be placed in another hardened location in the island. A platoon of Air Force personnel with FIM-92 Stinger missiles were unloaded and being assigned locations to cover the island against threats from the air. Radar systems were upgraded to give the Marines a better warning of any potential threat. The navy's contribution consisted of four old ex-Taiwanese patrol boats which were used to guard the new harbor and to challenge any hostile surface contact. The army had offered 155mm cannons but they were difficult to move and conceal. He did accept two more units of 120mm mortars and a dozen more M2 50 caliber machine guns. Army and civilian engineers and workers were constantly working on more defensive positions and making existing fortifications even more formidable. The navy construction battalions had almost finished laying mines onto the possible invasion beaches and their approaches. One of the civilian workers detonated one of the beach mines and had to be medivacked back to Palawan.

In the event of a war and an impending invasion of Pag-asa, the plan called for his men to hold out for a week before significant help could arrive. His long range artillery could easily lay waste to the other nearby islands occupied by the Chinese. But once he fired all his missiles, there would be no reloads available. No reinforcements or evacuations were to be expected. He was ordered to hold until help came or until resistance was no longer possible. Harder knew the Chinese had missiles as well. They could bombard the island until his defensive works crumbled. Their navy could very well overwhelm the Philippine Navy and end any hope of relief. He had to remind himself that he and his men were Marines. They weren't going to quit. They were going to fight until they won or every single one of them lay dead on the island. He thought about the situation for a moment. His country was spending millions of dollars expanding and fortifying an island in the middle of nowhere, sent two thousand of its soldiers, airmen and sailors in harm's way to guard them and making feverish preparations for war to fight for what exactly? Seventy years ago, no country wanted to claim these pieces for forlorn rock. The mapmakers of the era didn't really even bother to give them proper names. Charts of the era simply marked of the entire area as 'Dangerous Ground'. Colonel Harder thought, at that specific moment, it was the most appropriate name for his location.