1 A Dream of Brahma

The Moore "law" works well over halve a century without glitch;

even longer, than past from the day this empiric rule was discovered

by one of the fathers of IBM. He predicted, that the density of the

computer chip would double every year and halve. As the result,

computers become smaller and faster. Today, after some sixty plus

years of the IT development the generic PC hardware works over

ten in power nine(billion) FLOPS(float operations per second at

thirty two bit word currently).

Should the Moore law hold for a century more; some 150 years

after the first computer was build generic PC shall outrace it

in two in power hundred times, which is more than ten in power

thirty. I don't know the name for a number that big. The Avogadro

number - number of atoms in one mole(the weight of one mole equals

the atomic weight of the element) is some million times smaller

than that.

What does that processing power actually mean? All the implications

are hard to imagine... Lets start from the simple examples:

- In mathematics we'll be able to model in real time stochastic

processes. The computer would be able to run a rude real time simulation

of the processes, described by the chaos theory and discover the new

laws of this theory empirically, by the brute power. Once discovered,

those laws would be in turn applied to make the further simulations

more efficient. Its a classical example of the recursion.

We'll be able to calculate qualities of any imaginable molecule and

develop the Know-How of its production as a matter of seconds on

generic PC. The material with any reasonable required characteristics

may be constructed in reasonable time. Supercomputer would be able to

model a phenotype of the living creature with given gene-type in seconds

and construct the gene-type for the given phenotype of the living creature

in a reasonable time. Evolutionary programming would "evolve" you better

chips and machinery without the human intervention. All of it may be done

by the brute power, without any real computer intelligence.

Any "general" learning computer intelligence rises hard evolution

questions for humankind. You see, while its incredibly difficult to

program it to be as smart as an average human being, its impossible than

to stop it from surpassing it. Hardware progress and upgrade-ability

would soon put us out of competition. May you put efficient limitations

on someone much smarter, than yourself? Sounds like an attempt to play

a game, which rules are beyond your comprehension by definition - an

exercise in futility. May be cyborgs are our only viable path to the

survival on the next step of evolution of intellect. But let me stray

no farther off topic :). Even without computer intelligence, to the end

of this century our technology may well reach an imaginary "super-

civilization" thresh-fold.

Yes, we may remain as far from reaching stars as now, but became able

to model, emulate whole civilizations as "real" as we wish on our

computers. S/F writers usually imagine it other way around...

But why would such a "subsupercivilization" build a lot of virtual

space? I suppose, it'll start from the scientific research - applied,

as well as academic. The standard building blocs(classes, components,

libraries, etc.) would be developed. PhD., D.Sc., M.Sc, B.Sc. would

be awarded. Video games, education, research - all would converge to

the virtual worlds.

If there are no way around Einstein we'll reach longevity without

any ability to spread the bulk of population to stars at all... We'll

need virtual space, just not to go nuts from the absence of the real

one! Just imagine yourself the combination of the demigod's level

technology and a few square meters to exercise your godlike powers

in. :)

All of a sudden it looks really probable, that technology centered

civilization on its way to became a super-civilization builds about

as many virtual words, as it does have "citizens". And the process

is recursive too!

So, what are the chances, that our world is "real" and not a

semester work of some student or the favorite toy of some child?

"A Dream of Brahma" indeed!